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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Phillies at Marlins, Orioles at Twins, and Braves at Red Sox.
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Phillies @ Marlins
More or Less Contest
Vincent Velasquez more than 5.5 strikeouts and Sandy Alcantara more than 5.5 strikeouts
Velasquez's numb finger appears to be in the rearview as he pitched 1 1/3 innings of relief against the Red Sox on the 21st and now has a solid matchup against the Marlins. The Marlins are currently striking out at a rate of 30.2% against right-handed pitching over the previous 10 days, which ranks third-worst in the league. Velasquez has also gone over 5.5. strikeouts in his previous three starts and struck out three Red Sox in that 1 1/3 innings pitched on the 21st.
Sandy just faced these Phillies in his last start and managed to mow down nine of them. Normally I do not like taking an over in back-to-back starts against the same team, but we have been given a large margin of error in this one with the total set at 5.5. The Phillies are posting a 26.5% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days and Alcantara has gone over this total in three of his previous four starts, including the aforementioned Phillies start last time out.
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Orioles @ Twins
More or Less Contest
Jose Berrios more than 5.5 strikeouts and Dean Kremer less than 4.5 strikeouts
Berrios has been a bit up and down in 2021 in terms of strikeout performances but has a pretty solid matchup in this one against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are striking out at a rate of 26.8% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 11th-worst in baseball. They are also posting just an 81 wRC+ mark, which is ranked ninth-worst in baseball over the previous 10 days. Berrios should be able to navigate this lineup and reach six strikeouts as he has done in five starts this season and each of his previous two starts.
Kremer has only reached five strikeouts in two starts in 2021 and has not reached it in any of his previous five starts. He will be facing a Twins lineup that is only striking out at a clip of 22.5% against right-handed pitching over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 11th-best in baseball. They are also posting an 11.8% walk rate over that same span and Kremer is coming off a start in which he walked four Tampa Bay Rays. Overall, this appears to be a spot to play a less than on Kremer.
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Braves @ Red Sox
More or Less Contest
Charlie Morton less than 6.5 strikeouts and Garrett Richards more than 4.5 strikeouts
This is a tough call on Morton because the Red Sox are posting a K rate of 30.7% vs. right-handers of the previous 10 days, which is worst in baseball. That being said, they are at home in an AL park with the DH in place and are also posting a wRC+ mark of 148 vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked fourth-best in baseball. This feels like a spot where Morton could get lit up and that is why I like the less than here. He has also only reached seven strikeouts in three starts on the season.
Garrett Richards should be able to get over 4.5 as the Braves are posting a K rate of 30.2% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is second-worst behind only the Red Sox. Unlike Morton, this is a number Richards has reached in four of his previous five starts. The Braves are also posting a wRC+ of 95 and a walk rate of 8.5%, neither of which are scary enough to take me off a more than here.
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