RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, May 22nd, 2020 at 12:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/22
-
- Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) - 6U
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. New York Islanders (-110) - 5.5U
- Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-165) - 5.5U
- Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. Minnesota Wild (-105) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
*The main slate for Saturday will only be a three-game slate (excluding FLA/TB) so that is what this writeup will focus on.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,600 FD) - The loss of John Tavares really hurts the Maple Leafs as a team but it also increases the importance of Matthews placing the team on his back and willing them to win. Matthews is coming off of a pointless outing but he still recorded eight total shots on goal so he can still rack up points that way. Matthews should see heavy ownership in all formats and he is tough to fade when you start assembling your cash game lineups.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Crosby
- Mid-Tier- Carter, Karlsson, Malkin, Erkisson Ek, Stephenson
- Value- Hartman, Nelson, Pageau, Danault
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mitch Marner, TOR ($7,700 DK / $7,400 FD) - If the price point is still too high for Matthews, you could always save some salary and roster Mitch Marner who skates with Matthews at all points throughout the game. Marner has gone scoreless in back-to-back games but has taken eight total shots on goal in the first two games of their playoff series against Montreal so he should have the green light to keep shooting. Marner has 11 points in 11 games against the Canadiens this season and makes for a fine overall play in all formats.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Stone, Kaprizov, Marchessault, Guentzel
- Mid-Tier- Rust, Fiala, Toffoli, Hyman, Gallagher, Tuch, McCann, Smith
- Value- Eberle, Kapanen, Zuccarello, Zucker, Palmieri
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alec Martinez, VGK ($5,600 DK / $4,600 FD) - One defenseman that really stands out from a cash game perspective is Alec Martinez. He is as steady as they come when it comes to racking up peripheral stats as he has accrued 37 peripherals over his last five games (averaging seven peripherals per game during that stretch) and continues to see over 20 minutes of ice time per game. Martinez has one of the best floors on the entire slate and is a great value on both DK and FD for your cash game builds.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Letang, Pietrangelo
- Mid-Tier- Theodore, Rielly, Petry, Pulock, Spurgeon, Muzzin
- Value- Dumba, Brodin, Dumoulin, Matheson, Suter, McNabb
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) - Ever since dropping a heart-breaking loss on last Sunday, Fleury has really ramped it up and won his last two starts against the Wild as the Golden Knights have now improved to 2-1 against the Wild in their playoff series. Fleury has been a brick wall against Minnesota so far in the postseason as he has allowed four goals on 81 total shots faced. Fleury has seen 30+ shots in the first two games but only faced 16 shots in Game 3 so hopefully he can see a little bit larger volume which will only lead to more fantasy points overall.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Campbell
- Mid-Tier-
- Value- Jarry
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- VGK 2
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith (Theodore, D-men add on)
- The second line for Vegas has very solid pricing across the entire line and would be one to focus on in your tournament builds. In their most recent game on the road against the Wild, this line was able to generate five scoring chances and three-high danger opportunities while also managing to score two full-line goals. Since the start of the playoffs, this line has managed to score three 5v5 goals while also having a 2.90 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time so look to them as a great line to plug in and build around.
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith (Theodore, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TOR 1, MTL 1, PIT 2, PIT 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
