RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has hit the final week of the regular season! Yes, the playoffs start next week. As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, May 12th, 2021 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/12
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- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
- Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche
Please note that this is a crazy week with five Wednesday night games. Also, the Edmonton-Montreal at 5:00 pm EDT is not part of the main slate so that means no Connor McDavid and company on Wednesday night.
One of the key aspects of tonight is the sentence above. This will change a lot of lineups along with morning skate news. Does Toronto risk playing their top forwards against Ottawa? Minnesota has a slight chance of catching Colorado so they will not rest anyone tonight at least. Now, St. Louis is an entirely different question. Coach Craig Berube has some decisions to make.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a four-game main slate, picking the right goalie will be a little bit easier. The ugly buzz words "load management" will come heavily into focus. Again, please be advised that social media is going to be your best friend before lock tonight -- which is at least an hour later than normal. That will help.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can the late games deliver a little more drama as now Vegas needs a bit of help in just winning the division? Philipp Grubauer is likely to be heavily owned after that tour de force effort against Vegas on Monday. Grubauer stopped all 11 shots on the penalty kill as Colorado won 2-1.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to try and game stack is a bit inevitable given the matchups in the late games. With San Jose and Los Angeles just experimenting, Vegas and Colorado will have the opportunity to be heavily owned. Differentiation will be vital and yes Ottawa players get a boost from all of this too.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these four games look to feature low goal totals. One could be wrong but this might be a pond hockey night unlike the slop in Washington on Tuesday.
Finally, this main slate is like a Wednesday normally should be. It just has a few wrinkles with the late games and some line change tweaks.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple once more but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD) - Thankfully there is only one player over $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday night. The best part is that it is Auston Matthews. Now, will Matthews play given that Toronto has zero to play for? The same question there will be revisited on Friday against Winnipeg. The idea is to go with certainty and that is Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon and Colorado need to win both games preferably in regulation in order to take the West Division. The Avalanche center has three goals and three assists in four meetings with Los Angeles. Ironically at home, Mackinnon shoots a little less but scores more goals. He also averages two fewer minutes of ice time per game. However, tonight the center will play as much as is needed to ensure the win and two points. Look out, Los Angeles!
- Tomas Hertl, SJS ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD) - Yes, we do not care that it is Vegas on Wednesday but Hertl has been too good of late. He has 15 points (six goals) in his last ten games including five multi-point effort contests. Hertl even has 11 shots in his last two games. Against Vegas, Hertl should thrive nicely with his top-flight acceleration. The center has been amazing over the second half of the season. The San Jose center has three of his four points against Vegas in the last two meetings. This shapes up to be quite an interesting matchup that Hertl could win again on Wednesday.
This is a Wednesday night slate where most of the lineups can be set based on the two late games. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable (see the games in St. Louis and Toronto) but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with the later contests. Also, be aware again of those load management and game-time decisions. This is the time of year where scratches and injuries just seem to appear out of nowhere. Chandler Stephenson is worth a look again from Vegas and maybe some Ottawa centers as well just to sprinkle in some different roster construction.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kirill Kaprizov, MIN ($7,100 DK / $6,900 FD) - Kaprizov has more value than usual because again it appears Max Pacioretty may be held out on Wednesday night. Also, the Minnesota Wild winger has an outside chance at a 30-goal season (has 27 currently). Considering, Kaprizov has nine goals and 14 points in his last ten games, it is hard to dispute playing him anyway. Just check morning skate to make sure but Dean Evason expected him in the lineup as of press time. Something to note...Kaprizov has just three points in six games against St. Louis but does have 20 shots on goal on two goals. Considering his shooting percentage is 14.7% on the road. The Russian winger may be due against a Blues team with a questionable penalty kill (five road power-play goals).
- Connor Brown, OTT ($4,300 DK/ $5,200 FD) - Brown seems to always be motivated against Toronto. It could be a preseason game and the winger would go through walls just to play against the Maple Leafs. He has four goals and six points in the eight meetings this year against Toronto. Furthermore, Freddie Andersen will be in goal for Toronto. He looked awful in his two AHL tuneups with the Marlies. It will be intriguing to see ownership rates with Ottawa given this news. The only risk with Brown is he averages less than two shots a game against the Leafs. Also, Brown is a short-handed threat as well with four goals coming during the man disadvantage.
The problem tonight may just be too much uncertainty. That may be the wrong wording but honestly, those may be where the profits are. Also, how much Ottawa is too much Ottawa? Are there enough fringe Toronto players to take a look at as well?
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Justin Faulk, STL ($5,700 DK / $4,300 FD) - So, the point here was to take a bit more risk on Wednesday. Faulk's volume can be somewhat erratic but he averages over three shots a game and two blocked shots a contest versus Minnesota. IF he plays, the Blues' defenseman is worth rostering, especially on FanDuel. It is a challenge to gauge game flow for this contest because of again uncertain lineups. However, the idea is to try and play options that will thrive in higher tempo scenarios. Faulk is one of those players with a big shot that can tally some points.
- Cale Makar, COL ($6,500 DK / $6,100 FD) - The defenseman hot right now in DFS with four goals and 11 points in his last ten games. Disregard the game in Vegas because of the goalie duel. Tonight expects to be a different kind of game against Los Angeles where Makar can be a little more freewheeling. Makar has two goals and three assists in four contests versus the Kings this year. That includes 11 shots and four blocked shots. The tempting thing is to bite the Vegas apple as far as defenders but maybe Alec Martinez is the way to if his foot allows him. If not, pivot further down on Wednesday.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Hint: GO FOR IT! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Erik Karlsson and Jonas Brodin carry some intrigue from the value tier again. Minnesota's defensemen are under-priced on this slate somewhat. San Jose's defensemen are underpriced as well while Vegas defensemen are a bit high-priced. Also, will Pietrangelo go off again? He had a goal and six shots versus Colorado. Maybe Shea Theodore does instead. That is the problem when spending that much on defense tonight.
Please note that with Thomas Chabot out, Ottawa's defense becomes even more inexpensive. Even Victor Mete at minimum could be a floor option on Wednesday. The key with the Senators is that their defenders mostly block a couple of shots a night at the least. Each one is less than $4,000 on DraftKings and several are in the $2,500 to $3,000 range. If one spends too much, there presents a nice, easy way to fit everything in.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Colorado tonight (should be Philipp Grubauer) versus Los Angeles (4-0, just 22 shots faced per game). Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 8:00 pm EDT lock.
The biggest problem with goaltending on Wednesday night is which goaltender starts for Ottawa. They may be heavily owned depending on what Sheldon Keefe does with his lineup. For now, we assume there will be quite a few resting players.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- SJ 1
- Barabanov/ Hertl / Kane / Karlsson from the Defense (do watch a line shift here).
- COL 1
- MacKinnon/ Rantanen / Toews/Girard from the D?
- MIN PP 1
- Kaprizov / Bonino / Fiala (Spurgeon, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: SJ 2, TOR 2, STL 1, OTT 1, VGK 3 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially in Colorado and San Jose).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
