The Outsiders: Deeper Pitching Prospects To Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome the debut of a new recurring piece where I will highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

In the second installment, I'm going to highlight 10 pitchers. For the initial Outsider rankings, I'm going to focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average weighs the production for each hitter that logged at least 30 innings in full-season minor league baseball in 2019.

Here is the second batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Joe Ryan's 155 K%+ rate was 55 percentage points above the average performance in the Florida State League in 2019.

EstRA+ is a run estimator that uses a pitcher's K%, BB%, and GB% to estimate how many runs he would have allowed given neutral luck.

K%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher struck out.

BB%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher walked.

GB%+ shows what percentage of balls in play allowed by the pitcher were groundballs.

SwStr%+ shows the percentages swings and misses a pitcher generated on every pitch that he threw. A companion to K%+ to help measure dominance.

Strike%+ shows the percentage of pitches that the pitcher threw for strikes. A companion to BB%+ to help measure command.

GS% shows the percentage of appearances that the pitcher made in a starting role. A measure to determine what role the organization plans on using the pitcher in.

Joe Ryan, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

His fastball continues to dominate hitters and his control means his minuscule walk rates continue against MLB level competition.

Current situation:

Ryan made a three-inning appearance with the Rays in spring training before he was shuttled down to the alternate site. He should spend the majority of 2021 at Triple-A Durham. The Rays have plenty of pitching depth and Ryan has yet to be added to the team's 40-man roster, so I don't anticipate a quick promotion to the MLB ranks early on this season.

Joey Cantillo, LHP - Cleveland Indians

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

He keeps challenging hitters with a fastball that can generate whiffs, while his secondary stuff takes a jump with the Cleveland organization.

Current situation:

Cantillo was shipped to Cleveland as part of the deal that sent Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Cantillo has been stretching out at the alternate site throughout the spring. Still only 21 years old and not currently on the team's 40-man roster, I think the most likely spot is for Cantillo to start the season at Double-A with an eye on pitching for a rotation spot next spring.

Cody Morris, RHP - Cleveland Indians

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Big time fastball is able to sit in the 96-98 mph range for extended stints, allowing his rainbow curve and changeup to develop as out pitches.

Current situation:

Morris was shut down with a lat injury early on in spring training. The latest reports are that he's back throwing, but likely also facing a delayed start to the season. I figure he will be ticketed to Triple-A Columbus when he returns, but there's also a chance that the team eases him into things at Double-A. He probably has the talent to contribute at the MLB level this season, but if the team is looking to build him into a future starter, don't expect them to rush things.

Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP - Houston Astros

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Nivaldo needs to become as stingy with the free passes in the Majors as he was at the minor league level in 2019, having the talent to post K-BB% rates north of 20.0%

Current situation:

Rodriguez has already made six relief appearances with Houston at the MLB level, but the team has shipped him down to the alternate site again early on in 2021. He should pitch for Triple-A Sugar Land this summer, where hopefully he will hold down a regular spot in the starting rotation. Houston likely won't hesitate to use him in spot start duties this year for the big club if needed.

Parker Mushinski, LHP - Houston Astros

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Lefty keeps his strikeout dominance and proves that he can handle a starter's workload.

Current situation:

Parker Mushinski was a 7th round selection in the 2017 draft out of Texas Tech University. He's vacillated between starting and closer roles in his professional career so far, but the Astros seemed committed to trying him in the starting rotation during the 2019 season. He is going to start the 2021 season with Double-A Corpus Christi, where he hopefully can continue to establish himself as a future MLB rotation piece.

Mitch White, RHP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Despite the Dodgers' excellent pitching depth, injuries take their toll and White surprisingly finds himself in a starting role at the back-end of the rotation.

Current situation:

The Dodgers have suffered a rash of injuries to their pitching staff, so they recalled Mitch White from the alternate site this week to eat some innings. White, 26, is in the 'put up or shut up' phase of his career, so it will be interesting to see just how the Dodgers employ him out of the bullpen this summer. This former 2nd round pick has the stuff to handle big-league hitting once he gets his feet under him a bit.

Michael Baumann, RHP - Baltimore Orioles

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Burly Minnesotan hurler who has logged nearly 300 professional innings continues to eat innings at the highest level.

Current situation:

Baumann suffered an elbow strain in the summer of 2020, limiting his appearances at the alternate site and in spring training this year. The team will be cautious with his arm, but once he's built back up, look for Baumann to enter the rotation at Triple-A Norfolk later on this summer.

Sean Hjelle, RHP - San Francisco Giants

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

The 6'11" Hjelle continues to develop his arsenal and becomes one of the most uncomfortable at-bats in the Show.

Current situation:

Hjelle earned a non-roster invite to the Giants' spring training this year. He's assigned to Double-A Richmond to begin his 2021 Minor League campaign. He's unlikely to break into the big leagues this year, but if all goes according to plan, then 2018's second-round draft pick will be in the hunt for a rotation spot with the Giants next spring.

Cody Bolton, RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Pittsburgh's pitching development scores a much-needed win, polishing up a slider that becomes a MLB plus pitch.

Current situation:

Bolton, still only 22, is going to start 2021 back at Double-A Altoona. If everything goes according to plan, I would anticipate he sees time at Triple-A this year, earning a non-roster invite to spring training in the spring of 2022. With his slider leading the way, there's a chance that Bolton sees high-leverage action with the big club sooner rather than later.

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