Waste of Talent: Rookies in Bad Landing Spots

The days after the NFL Draft are the ultimate hype festival. It's like going to SXSW and thinking every band you see in a random bar is going to be the next big thing. Then you get home, and within a month, you've forgotten the names of over half of those bands.

That's the draft. There are lots of players drafted and someone is going to be excited about every single one of them. But plenty of these players are going to struggle in their new digs. That's just how it goes.

With that in mind, let's look at some rookies who ended up with bad landing spots when it comes to fantasy.

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Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace

WR, Baltimore Ravens

A lot of things will be said by a lot of people about the Ravens and how wide receivers don't succeed with Lamar Jackson. Probably too much will be said, so let's keep this section short.

The Ravens were the only team in the NFL with under 3,000 receiving yards last year. Lamar Jackson was 22nd in intended air yards. The Ravens had 555 rushing attempts, the highest mark in the league.

You could argue that some of that was because Jackson didn't have a ton of receiving talent around him and the Ravens needed to run more because of that, but how much are we realistically going to attribute to that?

Meanwhile, the Ravens added two good young receivers in this draft. If they had just drafted either Bateman or Wallace, I could be talked into liking the landing spot because of the potential for that player to immediately play a key role. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. This is just a messy situation.

Elijah Moore

WR, New York Jets

This whole section relies on one assumption: that Jamison Crowder is a member of the Jets next season. Now, that's not necessarily a guarantee:

But with rookie Zach Wilson at quarterback, would the Jets want to cut loose the team's most reliable target and arguably the team's best player? Good question.

Moore's going to be a slot guy in the NFL. Per Rotowire, Crowder had 479 snaps in the slot last year to just 88 out wide. There's obviously an issue there for Moore because the positional overlap would limit his opportunities.

I could be off base here. Crowder could get cut for cap reasons and Moore could be unleashed early on as the slot guy. But at least for now, I don't love this spot, especially since we don't know how pro-ready Wilson will be either.

Pat Freiermuth

TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

The second tight end selected in the draft, Freiermuth had his best college season in 2019, when he caught 43 passes for 507 yards and seven touchdowns. He can do it all on the field when it comes to blocking and receiving, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in this Steelers offense.

That includes Eric Ebron. Per Spotrac, it appears that it would cost more to cut Ebron than to keep him another year, so he should enter 2021 as the starter still at tight end.

The thing about Ebron is that even though his NFL career has been disappointing relative to him being a top-10 pick, he's still really talented, in large part because he's a big target down the field. He was seventh among tight ends in deep targets last season. He was also fourth in red-zone targets. Ben Roethlisberger seems like he trusts Ebron at this point, which just further clouds the path for Freiermuth.

Hunter Long

TE, Miami Dolphins

Long landed on a Dolphins team that already has a promising young tight end in Mike Gesicki.

Has Gesicki been as good as expected? No, not really. But he still has this going for him:

image taken from PlayerProfiler

Beyond that, Gesicki was third among tight ends in air yards, second in aDOT, and fifth in yards per reception. He's got big-play potential and is a clear breakout candidate next year.

Long will be looking to squeeze into an ancillary role on this team. Maybe with Gesicki plus some speedy guys like Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to stretch the field, there will be some room for Long to work over the middle? But the team also has Lynn Bowden Jr. to potentially do that, plus DeVante Parker will still command a lot of targets.

Plus, Durham Smythe had an 86.7 percent catch rate last year. Are we even sure Long beats him out for the role as the No. 2 tight end?

Chuba Hubbard

RB, Carolina Panthers

Lots of people are big fans of Chuba Hubbard. In 2019, Hubbard rushed for over 2,000 yards, with 21 touchdowns and 6.4 yards per carry. He's a fast player with great vision, though he didn't show a ton in the passing game, and he's coming off a rough 2020 season.

Still, Hubbard profiled as someone who could be incredibly productive in the right spot. If he'd wound up in a committee, I might have taken a chance on his talent and the possibility that talent could help him become the best part of that committee.

But instead, he landed in Carolina, where he'll back up Christian McCaffrey.

Last year, injury limited McCaffrey to three games. But in the one game where he was fully healthy to start the year, he took 97 percent of Carolina's offensive snaps. Barring injury, I expect McCaffrey on the field for at least 90 percent of meaningful snaps next season, which leaves Hubbard right where Mike Davis was last year: he's a valuable insurance policy for McCaffrey who could put up some RB2 numbers if pressed into full-time action, but whose value is entirely dependent on another player. Just a rough landing spot for such a talented player.

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