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Today, we will look at the Phillies at Cardinals game as well as a couple of other pitcher totals we may be able to attack in various games.
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Phillies @ Cardinals
More or Less Contest
Aaron Nola more than 6.5 strikeouts and Kwang Hyun Kim more than 3.5 strikeouts
Nola has gone over this total in two of his five starts, which is rather surprising considering he went over it in nine of 12 starts in 2020. I think he can get back on the strikeout path in this one as he will be facing a Cardinals team that is striking out at a clip of 27.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks 11th-worst in the league and also struck out 10 times against Nola in his start against them back on April 18. They are also just walking at a rate of 6.5%, which is ranked eighth-worst in the league over that same span. Their wRC+ mark of 86 over the previous 10 days against righties is also in the bottom half of the league, so this is a lineup that Nola should be able to take advantage of as he did a week and a half ago.
Kim's prop is a little tougher, but he has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his first two games (one of which was a four-strikeout performance against these Phillies) and managed to mow down eight Reds in his previous start. While the Phillies are not awful against left-handers, they are posting a K rate of nearly 24% against them over the previous 10 days and this has them ranked 18th-worst over that span. Again, the number is not terrible but it is likely high enough for Kim to get four of them to strike out, especially considering he will be facing Nola at least twice in this one. The Phillies are also posting a .148 ISO against lefties over the previous 10 days, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.
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More or Less Contests(s)
While Monkey Knife is still putting together the full slate of games this morning, I thought it might be best to just mention some other pitcher totals I like so you all can get started forming your prop picks for the day.
Trevor Bauer more than 8.5 strikeouts: Bauer has gotten at least nine strikeouts in four of his five starts to begin 2021 and gets a dream matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The Brewers are currently striking out at a clip of 30.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks second-worst in baseball across that timeframe. They are also only walking at a rate of just 6.3% vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which has them ranked fourth-worst in the league and makes it less likely Bauer gets in trouble via the free pass in this one. I expect Bauer's number to rise before lock as well.
Chris Bassitt less than 5.5 strikeouts: Bassitt is a bit tough in this one as has managed to strike out eight hitters in each of his previous two starts, but one of these starts was against the dreadful Detroit Tigers. The Rays have been better lately as they are only striking out at a rate of 22.1% vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which is ranked eighth-best in baseball. They are also walking at a solid rate of 10.1%, which has them ranked sixth-best in the league. Lastly, their wRC+ mark is fifth-best in the league vs. righties over the previous 10 days with a mark of 117. Bassitt will have his hands full at Tropicana Field in this one.
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