Should We Trust the Saints in Fantasy Football without Drew Brees?

Michael Florio breaks down the new-look New Orleans Saints offense and helps fantasy football managers figure out if they can be trusted in early drafts.

For the last decade, the Saints offense has been one to target for fantasy football. Over the years we have seen QB1, RB1, WR1 and even TE1 finishes come from this Saints offense. In fact, there is a chance that many of you reading this have never had to worry about the Saints offense for fantasy football purposes. I mean, it’s been a juggernaut ever since Sean Payton and Drew Brees teamed up in 2006.

A run like this over 15 years is a huge accomplishment. But with Brees officially hanging it up, we are now forced to look at the Saints in a different light. Gone are the days where the offense is predictable. In recent years we knew this passing game would operate with tunnel vision – knowing that it would run through Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.

Gone are the days of knowing how the offense would look. I mean, gone are the days of knowing who will be throwing the ball with any sort of certainty.

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Quarterback Conundrum

 The first question with the Saints has to be, who will the starting QB be for them in 2021. We do know it will be either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, or a combination of both (more on that later). Whichever QB the Saints go with will greatly impact the offense, so let’s take a closer look at their tendencies as passers.

All of these stats are in starts since 2015. So that naturally means a small sample size of just four starts for Hill – except for the adjusted completion percentage. That is on every pass he has thrown since the 2015 season. While that is still significantly less of a sample than the other two, him posting the highest adjusted completion percentage of the trio was eye-popping to me. We often build Hill up as a run-first QB that will struggle in the passing game, but perhaps that is not the case. Hill made four starts last season and in his first two, he only threw a combined 39 times for 311 yards and no touchdowns. That only added to the narrative that he is purely a runner. I am guilty of believing that myself. It is worth noting that one of those games was his first start at QB and the other was against the Broncos when they had to start Kendall Hinton, a practice squad WR at QB, and the Saints were leading throughout. In the two starts that follow he posted 232 and 291 pass yards, with two pass touchdowns and at least 37 pass attempts in each game. We are completely dealing with a small sample, but perhaps he can be a better passer than anticipated.

Winston is the exact opposite of Hill. He was a number one pick and came into the NFL with a lot of hype and expectations. He started from day one and posted 22 and 28 touchdown passes in his first start. He also three 15 and 18 interceptions. But he does have some similarities to Hill. Just as Hill has been dubbed a runner and has struggled to shake off that narrative. That has been the case with Winston and the interceptions. Look, he has 85 in his career so I cannot say it is not an issue. But the 30 INT season is one stink that Winston and his supporters cannot wash off, but maybe unfairly so. It was his first season in Bruce Arian’s downfield system, one that often leads to interceptions being thrown. His offenses finished in the top six of most interceptions thrown in his final two seasons with the Cardinals. And even last season with the goat Tom Brady, they ranked 16th. Brady’s 12 interceptions may not sound like much, but it’s the most he threw in a season since 2011. I am not trying to make the case that Winston will no longer have interception troubles, but that it simply is overblown due to one really bad season. It is an issue that Payton may be able to fix. Also, I mean he did have Lasik eye surgery this offseason!

Plus, I am trying to learn from mistakes in past seasons. And we can look to Winston’s former team for that. I expected the offense to shape itself around Brady, becoming less of a downfield attack that Arians loves, and more shorter passes, especially to RBs. And while we did see more passes like that, Brady was also throwing downfield more often than ever. His 5.9 passes of 20+ air yards per game in 2020 was a career-high. Winston is not Brady, but his past style of play in the Bucs offense does not dictate what he will look like in a Payton-led Saints offense.

We will learn a lot more about this QB situation as the summer and preseason progresses, but for the meantime, both are going relatively late in best ball drafts due to the uncertainty surrounding both. Neither should be targeted as a starter, but I do like the idea of drafting both in the later rounds and having the New Orleans QB rostered, regardless of which direction Payton goes in.

What it Means for Alvin Kamara

 The player the QB will have the biggest impact on is without question, Alvin Kamara. The RB1 in 2020 has finished as a Top-10 fantasy running back every season he’s been in the NFL. That is largely because of his involvement in the passing game. In fact, he has never rushed for 1,000 yards in his career – last year’s 932 rush yards was a career-high. He has posted at least 81 catches in every NFL season, topping out at 83 last year and has topped 700 receiving yards in all but his injury-riddled 2019 season. Either way, a move from Brees is likely to hurt Kamara. You see in the table above that Brees threw to RBs on 27 percent of his throws, while that number dips below 20 percent for each of the other QBs. That is going to hurt Kamara. But I do think there is a lesser of two evils here. Winston, despite throwing a fewer percent of passes to the RB, would be better for Kamara in my opinion.

First, part of him throwing to RBs less could be the offense he plays in. I mean, Brady went to the Bucs this season and threw 19 percent of his passes to RBs, his lowest amount since 2014. That was after throwing over 26 percent of those passes to RBs in three consecutive seasons. It is just not something Arians asks his QBs to do as much as other systems. The Saints routinely are towards the top of the league in passes to RBs and I anticipate Sean Payton will design plenty of passes to Kamara. As for Hill, in the four games we saw him start last season Kamara saw these target totals: 1, 2, 3, 10. The first three games were his worst three games of the 2020 season, while the 10-target game ranked middle of the pack.

But the worrisome part of Hill starting is just how often he will run. There will be design runs, but I worry about him scrambling when he starts to feel pressure. Brees, who was far from a mobile QB, would look Kamara’s way when he felt pressure. Additionally, Hill is a red zone threat like Kamara has never seen before. In the four games started by Hill, Kamara had two touches inside the five-yard line and one touchdown. During that span, Hill had three carries and three rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line. The threat of Hill stealing those goal-line touchdowns is real and one that Kamara has never had to deal with before. Last season he scored 10 total touchdowns inside the five-yard line. Take some of those away and Kamara goes from being the RB1 to more-so being a Top-5 RB. That does not sound too bad. But then if you are factoring in fewer catches as well, Kamara has a level of volatility that he has not had since he entered the NFL.

Kamara is too talented to fall out of the first round of many fantasy football drafts. People will naturally see his name, remember that he was the RB1 last season and a Top-10 RB in every season and still be willing to draft him. He very well still could return RB1 value since Payton will have an entire offseason to design an offense around him with the new QBs. But, given the uncertainty surrounding this situation, I still think Kamara is the riskiest first-round pick right now. And for those in dynasty leagues, his value likely may never be higher. Try shopping him now for a huge haul.

What it means for Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas is coming off an injury-riddled 2020 season, but in 2019 he was the WR1 by far and set a bunch of records. You can say he can only run the slot, but fantasy managers were not complaining when Brees was pumping him with targets each week. We have a limited sample size of Thomas without Brees and it is encouraging. In the past two seasons, Thomas has played 14 games with Brees and nine without him. In the 14 with Brees, he averaged 19.93 fantasy PPG on 10.9 targets per game, 8.4 catches and 91 yards per game, all while on pace for about seven touchdowns. In the games without Brees (started by Teddy Bridgewater and Hill) he averaged 19.94 fantasy PPG on 9.9 targets, 8.0 catches and 99 yards per game, while on pace for five touchdowns. The fact that Thomas has been just as productive in fantasy with and without Brees the last two seasons is definitely an encouraging sign.

Just like with Kamara, there is a QB that I think is a better fit for Thomas, but it is not the same one. Comparing the two QBs to Brees, you see that Hill actually has the highest adjusted completion percentage and a similar air yards per throw as Brees. That fits Thomas’ skillset better. Thomas is not a burner and he has never been used as much of a downfield threat. Last season he had just two targets of 20+ air yards. He did have 22 in 2017, catching 10, so perhaps that is more of a product of Brees. But Thomas is definitely more of a receiver that relies on timing and accurate ball placement, rather than one who will just run deep and go up and high point the ball. Due to that, I believe Hill would better fit Thomas than Winston would.

For fantasy, Thomas is really falling compared to recent seasons. You often see him go in the third round, with him going in the backend of the third in a good amount of drafts. At that price, you are barely drafting him as a WR1, so I am fine taking the shot on him there. But if his price starts to climb, the less interested you should be.

What it means for the rest

Adam Trautman is the Saints player I am most excited for in fantasy not named Kamara or Thomas. Trautman is an athletic, big-bodied tight end that has drawn comparisons to Dallas Goedert. He is going off the board in the later rounds of many drafts, definitely as more of a TE2. But he comes with upside, which is enough to make him viable in fantasy. I am a fan of taking him as my second, or even third tight end, in the later rounds of best-ball drafts. I anticipate Winston is the better QB fit for Trautman, not just because Winston has thrown more to tight ends in his career, but because I anticipate the Saints would pass more with Winston and run more with Hill.

The Saints receiving group behind Thomas is weak, but Tre’Quan Smith is a name that stands out if the Saints do not draft a WR. Smith has long been hyped up in fantasy, but never really had sustained success. But, if the Saints do in fact start Winston, who not only is a better deep ball thrower than Brees, but also much more likely to air it out, he could finally be the QB to help Smith live up to all that hype. I will not pay any sort of significant price in fantasy drafts, but I do like him as a late-round pick in best-ball drafts.

Sean Payton Impact

QB tandems are not a thing at the NFL level… right? With any other coach, I would feel comfortable saying that, but I will never rule anything out when it comes to Sean Payton. What would a QB tandem here look like? Not sure. It could be separate series for each QB. We could see Hill in when the Saints are leading to help grind out the clock. We could see Winston when the Saints are trailing and need more of an aerial attack. It could be matchup-based week to week. Or the big nightmare, we could see Winston between the 20s and Hill in the red zone. Payton has already said this offseason he will design an offense that will work for both QBs, but with “tweaks to highlight each guy’s talent.”

But the one thing for certain is Payton will have an entire offseason to build an offense around his two best players – Kamara and Thomas. That is enough to keep both going in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.

You can follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio

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