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The Miami Dolphins were a surprise playoff contender in 2020 largely on the strength of their defense and +9 turnover margin. They couldn't quite reach the postseason, however, due to a lack of dynamism in the offense.
The Fins' pass offense ranked 20th in the league and the team flip-flopped between veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tua Tagovailoa throughout the season. Both QBs were at a disadvantage from the beginning when receivers Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out of the 2020 season and then Preston Williams was placed on IR, missing the second half of the year. With Fitzmagic moving to Washington, it's officially Tua time but he'll need more weapons to be effective.
Everyone expects the Dolphins to draft a receiver early, likely with one of their first-round picks, but they didn't waste time adding to their receiving corps. Miami signed Will Fuller to a one-year contract with a signing bonus of $9.6 million, a base salary of $999,000 and incentives up to $3 million. Fuller has plenty of motivation to stay on the field and be productive, which has been the biggest issue so far in his career. Can he do it and what does this mean for his fantasy value?
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About Those Injuries...
Looking back at his 2020, the bright side is that he didn't miss a single game due to injury! The downside is that he was suspended for the final five weeks. According to Fuller himself, he stated on Instagram that he "sought treatment from a medical professional who prescribed medication that he believed to be permitted under the NFL's drug policy." This resulted in Fuller failing to finish a 16-game season for the fifth straight time. He will also miss Week 1 of the 2021 season to complete his six-game suspension.
It goes without saying that his ceiling hasn't fully been reached and may never be if he can't stay on the field. While he didn't have any new injury issues crop up, there is enough on his medical rap sheet to make any front office, real or fantasy, nervous. A first-round pick in 2016 out of Notre Dame, Fuller has played 53 out of a possible 80 games. His injury chart has more red than a Target parking lot.
It's not encouraging that SportsInjuryPredictor.com has his chance of injury in 2021 at 99% and projects him to miss nearly five full games. Of course, injuries are the most unpredictable aspect of football but his history speaks for itself.
Between injuries and suspension, this is the reason Fuller was let go by the Texans and landed a one-year deal instead of something long-term in the $15 million yearly range as was expected prior to last season. Miami is taking a gamble that could pay off huge if Fuller does indeed stay healthy for most of the season.
1A or 1B?
Fuller wasn't the top free agent available at wide receiver but he was certainly considered among the top targets. If Miami had landed a player like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Kenny Golladay, it would be apparent who the top receiver in town would be with DeVante Parker playing opposite him. Fuller can be massively productive but he isn't exactly a target hog. Over five seasons, he has logged 21 games of five receptions or more. By contrast, he has 17 games of two receptions or less.
Fuller has 4.3 speed, averages 14.9 yards per reception for his career, and has been among the leaders in yards per target since entering the league. His 12.2 average depth of target (aDoT) in 2020 ranked in the top 30 of receivers with at least 30 targets but was actually a step back from 2019 when he posted a 14.2 aDoT and 2018 when it was at 14.7. He can break out for a big week any time, proven by his 13 games of 100 yards or more. He can provide something the Dolphins lacked last year, which is a downfield threat.
Good morning , here’s Will fuller destroying the Dolphins Secondary to start your day ? ( not Suprised) pic.twitter.com/wrSJ7uNu1x
— Kev ☠️ (@MVPxKev) March 19, 2021
He has also tallied 28 games under 50 yards. Boom or bust isn't too far off when describing his output, at least for fantasy purposes.
Last year, DeVante Parker garnered a 21.15% target share in Miami while Fuller was at 21.37% in Houston. This doesn't guarantee an even split because these were players on different teams and situations but neither has been used as a true alpha WR1 in his career. Even in his breakout 2019 season, Parker's 21.26% target share was lower than Preston Williams' 21.43% share. Fuller was nearly tied in receptions with teammate Brandin Cooks before his suspension last year, so it was a a 1A/1B situation there as well. Fuller did have more yards and a slightly better catch rate at 70.7%. He was enjoying his most productive and efficient year yet, sadly.
New Dolphins WR Will Fuller was asked to be an alpha receiver last year and absolutely crushed it.
- At least an average success rate on all but one route
- 74.2% success rate vs. pressFull 2020 and 2019 #ReceptionPerception profiles up on *the* website:https://t.co/mOxwyRqmoW pic.twitter.com/VUMjWMwhjy
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 18, 2021
We don't fully know what the receiver room will look like in 2021 but expect Albert Wilson to join Jakeem Grant and Lynn Bowden along with a rookie or two. Grant is mainly a vertical threat who was used more as a receiver out of necessity but his main value comes as a kick returner. Bowden is a Wildcat-type player who will line up at slot or in the backfield but won't see a high snap share. Wilson is a wild card coming off a missed season but could factor into the slot mix. Don't forget that the Dolphins have an athletic tight end in Mike Gesicki who also commands a fair amount of attention. Dolphins running backs also combined for 107 targets out of the team's 559 pass attempts last season.
2021 Outlook
There will understandably be a fair amount of trepidation among fantasy managers in drafts when it comes time to pull the trigger on Fuller. With the variety of weapons and the decidedly conservative nature of this offense, we can't expect Fuller to see higher volume than he has in the past. Miami still has a strong defense and won't air it out as often as the Texans have in past years.
When deciding between Parker or Fuller in fantasy leagues, neither makes for a WR2 at this point, especially since much of it hinges on Tagovailoa's growth in year two. Expect similar numbers with Parker having a higher weekly floor and Fuller being a volatile WR3 with upside. There are still some dominoes left to fall in free agency but I currently have Will Fuller at WR29 and DeVante Parker at WR33 in best-ball rankings. The addition of a high-end prospect like Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, or Jaylen Waddle would put a slight damper on the hopes of either being a weekly starter in fantasy but this offense should be solid enough that they shouldn't be outright ignored either.
Dynasty Value
Dynasty managers who have been holding on to Fuller might be inspired to flip him in hopes of getting something in return but this is the wrong time to trade him away. His value is at the lowest point it has been in his career since most will see the move to Miami as a lateral one, if not a downgrade since he no longer has Deshaun Watson as his quarterback. Fuller is still just 26 years old and has plenty of football left in him.
Injury risk always looms but the same could be said about several players, including DeVante Parker, who has missed 13 games in his career and played under the questionable tag several times. Fuller might even be acquired for a discount from a motivated seller who is looking to acquire more draft picks and believes his value will tank. Start the conversation with an early third-round pick and work your way from there without spending more than a mid-second rounder to acquire him.
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