RADIO
After getting the update on Showmaker's injury condition, I loaded up on Rangjun with a few DRX hedge stacks and went to bed. I was waking up to see that Showmaker both started and smashed; I was not best pleased, especially since it was a meaningless matchup for DWG. I just hope he's well enough to play at the end of the day and that he doesn't have any severe condition. A cheeky backdoor play saved the day for JDG to preserve their sweep over LGD and move them into the LPL's top four. T1 eliminated Afreeca from playoff contention and leaped past DRX into fourth. SNG played their way to a slow boil versus LNG and showed they could be dealy in this hyper carry meta if HF could get to three items.
Today we start the final week of the LPL's spring split, and we've still got some spots left for the last teams to claim. Seeding is crucial for the impending bracket, and teams will be fighting tooth and nail to attempt to rise as high as possible. Rare Atom is desperate to hold on to sixth place to avoid a spot in the opening round, but they face RNG, who are still worried about holding on to the top spot. In the nightcap, V5 still lives for a playoff berth after their upset of FPX, and IG is trying to move up in the seeding.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Monday, March 22nd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Rare Atom (+140) vs. Royal Never Give Up (-180)
RNG bounced back in a BIG way after being a bit embarrassed by JDG last Sunday with a big sweep of TES on Saturday. They could get their proactive map-based gameplan to bear on TES, who just wanted to push all the buttons better. TES was in the driver's seat in game two until a throw at baron allowed RNG to be able to close out the sweep. Rare Atom has had a week to think about what they did in their loss to LGD. That one still stings as I had been against them for so long, only to swap over to their side finally.
RA has been a bit better early with higher rift herald, first blood, and first drake percentage. RNG has the edge in the first turret and first three turrets, even with a lower herald rate. The GD@15 is also nearly identical between the two. RNG has been better late and has a significant lead in both total drakes and baron. I'll give RNG an edge in the team stats, narrowly.
This match doesn't have the second one's scoring potential from a kill standpoint, but with RNG's typically high team KP%, they could match IG. I like RNG here and think they are just a better version of RA, but with the top LPL teams starting to bounce up and down, I think we could just as quickly see RA pull off the upset. They have had a week to prep for today versus RNG, who only had a day off from a big "upset" of TES. I wouldn't be surprised if they suffer from a bit of a letdown. Both sides are in play for me today.
Top RNG Plays:
- Everyone on the team except Gala is over 70% KP in wins, but he leads the KS team by 10%.
Top RA Plays:
- Fofo - MID - he's the team's primary carry, and as mids rise in priority, that a plus for this team.
- Leyan - JNG - I don't like it either, but with jungle exp being reduced in 11.5, whichever jungler gets ahead first could carry the game, and Leyan has been a better farmer than Wei.
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6:00 AM: Invictus Gaming (-525) vs. Victory 5 (+340)
Victory 5 came away from Saturday's LPL action with a slate-breaking upset over FPX. V5 stepped up their early game and took control through their signature rift herald plays, and FPX was left reeling. IG pounded TT last time out, which was a whole week ago. IG isn't locked into playoffs yet, and so they need to pick up some wins in this last week versus V5 or LGD on Thursday. V5 will need some help but will have to keep the momentum rolling.
We should see the teams line up for cross-map plays as V5 tries to hold the top side of the map, using that to secure their precious rift herald and first turret gold that comes with it. IG is a more bot-focused team, and they will likely give over the herald to begin stacking drakes. I like this trade for IG, and they have been the better late-game team. V5 could get over on FPX, but I think they will have more trouble with IG. IG doesn't typically contest the herald, instead trading it for bot pressure and plate gold onto Puff. Rookie will also place too much pressure on Mole in the mid-lane matchup to allow him to leave lane without being punished.
I think we see IG give V5 the same treatment they handed out to TT last Monday, just like FPX SHOULD have on Saturday. V5 is one of the few teams in the league with worse vision numbers than IG, and that's saying something. If IG will stay even with V5 and not allow them to snowball the game, they should be able to outmuscle them in team fights late in the game. IG has drafted much more standard comps than has FPX, which is also an advantage for them. IG even starts on the blue side, and I've spoken before about how they excel when given their comfort picks. With V5 averaging 18.5 deaths in their losses, IG is my top projected team on the slate. I like Invictus to pick up a 2-1 win in this one and score well. V5 could pull out another upset if IG agrees to fight them around herald, so you can take some shots there if you want.
Top IG Plays:
- Puff - ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics post-break in their wins.
- Xun - JNG - second to Puff in both.
- Rookie - MID - the star mid is third on his team in both but has improved post-break.
Summary
- TLDR: RNG 2-1, IG 2-1. I like IG over V5 to be the more action-packed match; as both RNG and RA have a similar game style, it will be the slower of the two games.
- I will likely prioritize team, top, and support from RNG and the IG carries if I can wedge them all in together. That will probably be a prevalent build path, so making some pivots off is likely the path to success.
- Back to two-gamers, so let your freak flag fly. Try some dogs, a creative one-off (Trigger or Fofo anyone?), or fade a top pick for a more suboptimal choice to increase your upside.
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