RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Chase Elliott has the best odds (6.5) and implied odds (15%) to win at Phoenix Raceway this week. He won the second race at the site last season and has finished in the Top 3 in three of his past seven Phoenix starts. Elliott also has the third best Driver Rating at the site (111.3). He also has the second Fastest Laps Average Per 312 at Phoenix (38.1). The Vegas odds column is always a great place to start, and as you scroll to the right through various other categories, you will clearly see Elliott is one of the best plays of the week.
-Kevin Harvick has the second-best odds (7) and implied odds (14 percent) to win the Instacart 500. While Harvick has yet to truly display his better form so far this season, he is frequently dominant at Phoenix. He starts 18th and should reward you with a lot of Place Differential points for the high-end spend. Even if Harvick is widely rostered this week, you should still have him anchor several lineups, and differentiate around him to set your lineups apart in tournaments. Harvick is also projected to score the most Fantasy Points of any driver this week.
Projections
-Savvy DFS players can simply look at where Aric Almirola starts (32nd) and know he is a top Place Differential Play. The projections back that up, as he is targeted to finish 12th. Combining Harvick and Almirola in lineups may be a popular upside approach. As we indicated with Harvick, that does not mean you should steer clear of it. Having those two drivers could put you near the top of a tournament field When you have three to four other lineup slots to construct various combinations around in several builds, you can set those lineups apart. Harvick and Almirola can be the keys to contention for you. How you surround them with other drivers will determine a unique and successful build. Throwing in a contrarian play such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for example, who starts 11th but leads all drivers in the Loop Data stat of Green Flag Passes over the past two years at the site (305), could be a difference maker. That Stenhouse stat shows he can run well at Phoenix and may finish near or a few spots above his starting position.
-Tyler Reddick could be one of the better plays below $8000 this week. He starts 23rd, which is not incredibly low in the field, yet he is projected to finish 13th (factoring in variance of finishing a few places above or below that spot, which the projections do). For the price, that is very respectable finish. Reddick is projected to score 42.70 Fantasy Points this week, which is the most of any driver priced $8500 or below.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-We remind you that Driver Rating is the ultimate Loop Data stat to truly measure pure performances at a given track or in a season, taking out racing “deals” such as crashes, pit road mishaps, DNFs, etc. The Research Station includes DR Gained vs. Similar Drivers stat to identify outliers in this Loop Data category. Kyle Busch has an outstanding 18.5 DR Gained vs, Similar Drivers at Phoenix Raceway. He has finished in the Top 3 in five of his last 6 starts at Phoenix and is a great lineup anchor.
-Alex Bowman is another driver who stands out in a major way in this category. He has an 18.4 DR Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Phoenix, and he is completely untouchable in this regard in his price range. Bowman starts 21st and is projected to finish 12th. He has three Top 10 finishes in his last five Phoenix starts and could certainly place ahead of that projection, making him a quality choice for both PD and a good finish.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-As always, this is one of our preferred categories to pinpoint some value and bargain plays. Bubba Wallace has a 10.0 mark in this category at Phoenix. He starts 25th and can certainly deliver a quality amount of PD points from that position this week. Ross Chastain has 8.5 FP Gained vs. Similar Drivers at Phoenix. That is a very respectable number for a driver in his price range, and he certainly won’t hurt you if he stays on point with his projected finishing position of 20th, which he could certainly better by a few spots. Chastain is a big upside play, yet that is hard to find near his price range this week.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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