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Keeper values and tiered rankings for dynasty baseball leagues. JB reveals his keeper value rankings at the shortstop position for 2021 fantasy baseball and explains his methodology.
Many many years ago, I noticed the managers in my long-time keeper league were consistently making terrible keeper decisions year after year. Instead of taking their money every year thought I would help them out and find a good set of Keeper League Rankings to share with them. What I found was quite disturbing.
There appeared to be two types of Keeper Rankings available in the industry: Type A is just the site's normal rankings with younger players boosted. These types of rankings only benefit leagues where all Keepers carry the same cost or no cost, such as Rounds 1-4 for everyone's keepers. I also found a Type B that I have no explanation on how any human could ever perceive to be useful in any type of fantasy format. So instead of pulling a rankings list for them, I sat down on Excel for a good month and the Keeper Value Formula was born.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants." The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.
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JB's Keeper Value System
The final product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2020 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2021). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this value-based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a keeper league.
Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2020 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.
| TIER | SCORE | DESCRIPTION |
| 1 | >100 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs. |
| 2 | 75-99 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 50-74 | You are gaining good value with these players. The majority of good keeper options tend to fall into this category. |
| 4 | 25-49 | Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 5 | 0-24 | Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value. The idea is if you don't use a keeper selection here you can likely still draft that player in the vicinity of their 2020 cost. |
| 6 | <0 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2021 Shortstop Keeper Value Rankings
| POS Rank | Keeper Tier | Player | Cost ('20 ADP) | Keeper Score | |
| 1 | 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr | SDP | 2 | 107.133 |
| 2 | 2 | Corey Seager | LAD | 11 | 95.445 |
| 3 | 2 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | 22 | 77.6191 |
| 4 | 2 | Tim Anderson | CWS | 9 | 75.8472 |
| 5 | 3 | Bo Bichette | TOR | 6 | 66.5933 |
| 6 | 3 | Adalberto Mondesi | KCR | 5 | 60.3669 |
| 7 | 3 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | 3 | 54.0625 |
| 8 | 4 | Trea Turner | WAS | 1 | 44.9436 |
| 9 | 4 | Wander Franco | TBR | 23 | 32.7584 |
| 10 | 4 | Didi Gregorius | PHI | 16 | 32.3236 |
| 11 | 5 | Jake Cronenworth | SDP | 23 | 7.49141 |
| 12 | 5 | Willi Castro | DET | 23 | 7.18012 |
| 13 | 5 | Willy Adames | TBR | 23 | 4.74662 |
| 14 | 5 | Trevor Story | COL | 1 | 3.46358 |
Tier One
We have our first tier-one keeper value score of 2021, and it is none other than Fernando Tatis Jr. Any time you have the opportunity to keep a top-three overall player in fantasy, you take it at any cost. When that player is just 22 years old, you smash the keep button as hard as Tatis hits baseballs. Speaking of, no one in the league hits the ball like this guy. He led all of baseball in 2020 in EV, Hard Hit%, and Brls/PA%. In just over 250 PA he hit 17 bombs while also stealing 11 bases. We are talking 30/30 potential with an easy path to 200 R+RBI. Despite the BA dropping 40 points from his impressive rookie campaign, Tatis cut his strikeout rate while increasing his BB% to a smooth 10.5%. Again he is still just 22 years old - as hard as it is to imagine, the best is still yet to come.
Tier Two
Just missing tier-one status by five measly points, the real Corey Seager finally came back in 2020 after a two-year hiatus. He didn't quite crush the ball at Tatis-levels, but boy was he close. The World Series MVP boasted career highs across the Statcast board, but most impressive was his 15.8 Barrel% compared to a 9% career average. Two months away from turning 27, it appears the grown-man strength has fully been achieved and now we get to see a full 162-game season of Super Seager hitting in the incredible Dodgers offense. He is the only player in the first three tiers who won't be seeing double-digit steals, but the other four categories are so solid no one will care. If you were fortunate enough to enjoy a suppressed keeper-cost after 2018-2019, enjoy the fruits of your labor.
Dansby Swanson finally got the BA up to pair with his modest speed and pop in 2020, but unfortunately it was buoyed by a .350 BABIP that was at least 50 points higher than any of his previous three seasons. The good news is that you most likely have a late-round keeper cost attached to him for 2021. While the BA may never be where we want it, the 23 HR and 12 SB projected by ATC coming from inside the Braves lineup is still a great return on investment.
If Swanson did ever take his game to the next level and hit for a high average, get pushed up to the top of the lineup, which enables him to run more, I imagine it would look a lot like Tim Anderson. TA7 is possibly the least-talked-about 20/20 monster in the sport. He's only reached the threshold once but his HR/SB per 600 PA average since 2017 is 19.98/19.37 - of course we rounding that up. On top of the combo-skills, Anderson has hit over .320 for two consecutive seasons and will be hitting atop the White Sox lineup again in 2021.
Tier Three
Tier three are some very intriguing names but without the later round costs that we saw in tier two. Bo Bichette is a lot like a light-version of Tatis. Big prospect pedigree, father played in the bigs, speed-power combo, and a guy you want to keep around on your fantasy team for a long time. The 23-year-old has only 340 MLB PA, but in that span, he's hit .307 with 16 HR and eight steals. Across all levels in 2019 he finished with 19 HR and 20 SB. He's locked into the top-third of the Blue Jays lineup and will be a great five-category producer for years to come.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a bigger Adalberto Mondesi supporter than me. The draft flexibility that 60 SB gives you is unparalleled. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the 2019 season, and the day prior to when he was supposed to return to spring training last year the league was shut down for the pandemic. This would certainly explain the terrible terrible start to 2020, but it's not about how you start... Over his last 31 games, Mondesi hit .286 with six bombs and stole 18 bases. Don't let the worry of spending some time near the bottom of the lineup make you miss out on a 20/60 ceiling, throughout spring training this year he has only hit second or third. A fifth-round cost is well worth winning a category.
Xander Bogaerts has one of the safest floors at the position. He now has over 4000 career PA and is sporting a 600 PA average line of 83 R, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB, and .289 BA. Considering the fact that he is one year removed from hitting 33 bombs, that he stole eight bases in just 56 games last year, and that he's going to be hitting third or fourth in the Red Sox lineup we all expect higher counting stats for 2021. There is minimal risk with drafting Bogey. The keeper costs for him by now are certainly fairly unexciting but you want this offensive baseline, and can use some of the later-round flashy keeper selections to pair with him.
Tier Four
Receiving a respectable score despite a first-round cost is a true stud indicator, and Trea Turner is in fact a fantasy stud. Since 2016 his 600 PA average SB output is 43, and he's going to hit .300. What is most exciting about TT is it looks like the power is increasing every season. 2020 saw career highs in Barrel%, EV, and Hard Hit% when he smacked 12 dongs in just 59 games. So we're looking at 25/40 potential with a .300 BA and all the R+RBI in the world if he does in fact move to second or third in the lineup as Dave Martinez has suggested. Unless you have the 1st pick in the draft or are otherwise 100% certain he makes it to you, you need to keep Turner.
Of course you are keeping Wander Franco. The tier-four score is due to what he will give you in 2021 mostly, but you aren't giving up the #1 prospect in baseball in a keeper league.
2020 was a nice bounce-back for Didi Gregorius in his first season as a Phillie after a disappointing 2019. Although it's not like we can hold it against him coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Last season he boasted a career-low K%, hit an impressive .284 average and 10 homers in 60 games. Considering only 15 players played in all 60 games in 2020 it appears the elbow injury is well behind him. The statcast numbers were pretty ugly so don't go getting excited about the power, but expect high volume with valuable RBI totals and a healthy BA.
Tier Five
Jake Cronenworth enjoyed one hell of a first taste of the big leagues in 2020. The 27-year-old rookie only hit four HR and stole three bases, but he hit .285 and the underlying numbers look fantastic. He will absolutely hit for a higher average than whatever projection system you prefer is showing right now. He possesses a healthy line drive profile with a hit-direction spread similar to Trevor Story and Paul Goldschmidt. I am not worried about where he hits in the lineup because the Padres are loaded and hitting behind Tommy Pham and Wil Myers is still plenty of RBI possibilities. I am however slightly worried about playing time considering the Padres now have Ha-Seong Kim along with Jurickson Profar on the roster. The total PA for 2021 most likely start with a 4 instead of a 5 or 6 which is why Cronenworth's keeper score resides in tier five. In daily roster move leagues I'd be happy plugging him into one of his three eligible positions when starting, but trying to guess how many games he will play each week will be a mental strain.
There seems to be some serious Willi Castro helium building in the industry lately, and for good reason after he hit .349 and six HR in 140 PA last year. He obviously will never replicate the league-leading .448 BABIP, but the .306 xBA still leaves plenty of room for excitement. He already has three long balls this spring training but oddly still no stolen bases after laying the goose egg in 2020 as well, but he impressed on the base paths for years in the minor leagues. He is penciled in as the starting shortstop for the Tigers in 2021, and could be hitting in the top half of the lineup which should easily return some value as a late-round keeper.
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