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Miami Marlins starting pitcher Trevor Rogers is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 390
CURRENT ADP: ~444 overall
ANALYSIS: Rogers is being overlooked to some extent because of the company he keeps. Sandy Alcantara stepped forward in a big way with an All-Star nod in 2019 and 2020 was all about Sixto Sanchez. The Marlins are now knee-deep in young arms who could vie for a rotation spot including Nick Neidert, Jorge Guzman, Braxton Garrett, and recent draftee Max Meyer, among others. Rogers debuted last year to inconsistent results but he has the best pure stuff of any starting option in Miami outside of Sanchez.
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Over his first seven starts, Rogers suffered the typical highs and lows of a rookie pitcher. He pitched a couple of scoreless, albeit brief, outings. He also got lit up by the Phillies and Braves, allowing eight ER and five ER respectively. Those are two teams he'll see a lot of in the NL East over the coming years. Although the final ratios are ugly at 6.11 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, the sample is small and his Statcast profile isn't worrisome. He ranked at least in the 70th percentile or higher for xBA, xSLG, xERA, Barrel%, and xwOBA. What stands out in Rogers' profile is the strikeout rate. He wiped out 30% of batters faced and didn't rely on one pitch to do it. Rogers spread out his whiff rate fairly evenly among his changeup, slider, and four-seamer which averages about 94 MPH.
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