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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya on 03/06/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
When Dana White and the UFC as a whole go to work, they do go to work. Oh boy, what a weekend do we have ahead of us. It's been a couple of events since the last time we saw a belt put on the line back on Feb. 13 in a Usman vs. Burns main event that saw the former retain the gold. The truth is, though, that the year has not started too high when it comes to championship fights. Two months into 2021 we have only seen one of them, and it was about time that got fixed.
Enter UFC 259, the three-titles-on-the-line event and one that will stay sewed to UFC lore and history forever. That's correct, or at least not entirely wrong. Since the start of 2010, only four times have we witnessed three belts going up for grabs in a single night. This will mark the fifth after it happened in UFC 214, 217, 245, and 251. We'll watch Israel Adesanya trying to snatch the LHW belt from current champ Jan Blachowicz, Petr Yan defending the BW gold for the first time, and Amanda Nunes doing so in the WFW division for the second time. This is one of the most ridiculous events ever put together, with a champ vs. champ headlining it and a couple of champs vs. #1 contenders on top of that. Bring it on!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya on 03/06/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Israel Adesanya, $9200 - vs. Jan Blachowicz (C)
I don't think the challenger here needs any deep introduction. Israel Adesanya is 20-0 as an MMA pro, and 8-0 since he became part of the UFC promo. That's pretty much nuts. Adesanya won the MW belt all the way back in April 2019 and he has yet to surrender it, having three consecutive successful title-defense fights ending in W. This upcoming won't be the fourth, though, as he's going up the scale to fight for something just a few have accomplished: becoming a two-title holder.
The man at the other end, Jan Blachowicz, will be the one tasked with stopping Adesanya from pulling off the feat. Jan is 10-5 in the UFC, though he's on a four-fight winning streak (all since Jun. 2019) and he snatched Dom Reyes' belt to become the LHW champ. He's putting the gold on the line against a man that, by his own words, won't be bulking up to face Blachowicz.
Jan is seen as the clear underdog here, even though the weight discrepancy between him and Adesanya could be quite large. Adesanya has a 70% winning probability and his -230 ML is wild. Even as the favorite, it'd be quite incredible to see him getting the belt if he really fights at his "true" weight. Jan hasn't proved much like a champ, of course, but he won't be making things easy. Gotta go with the mighty Adesanya, though. Kid just doesn't know how to lose and he plain dominates.
DraftKings MMA Women's Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Nunes (C), $9600 - vs. Megan Anderson
Speaking of dominant fighters... Who the hell is stopping Nunes, if anyone at all? While Adesanya is a perfect 20-0, Amanda Nunes isn't far from the Nigerian with a ridiculous 13-1 herself having dropped just one fight (to Cat Zingano all the way back in 2014, though) in her UFC career. Nunes has only fought title fights since she did so for the first time in July 2016 and he's won all of the 8 affairs she's been part of from that date on.
Megan Anderson, on the other hand, is just 3-2 with her UFC-debut coming just a little over two years and a half ago when she dropped a decision to Holly Holm. Anderson is 3-1 since Dec. 2018, which is virtually the past two years and she's built a resume that has her as the no. 1 contender in the division.
All of that is good for Anderson, of course, but are we really giving here any chances of defeating the unstoppable Nunes? Amanda can do it standing and on the ground, her fantasy points have dropped below 71 once in her UFC career (her lone loss), and the legacy he's putting together is impressive, to say the least. Megan has done it on both KOs and subs herself, but she's a first-round wonder (she hasn't been on the Octagon for more than 4 minutes in all of her last four fights) super-dependent on early stoppages. The problem is she has all of the tickets to be the one finished come Saturday. Ugh.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Petr Yan (C), $8400 - vs. Aljamain Sterling
Finally, after a 14-fight run on the promo and an impressive five-win streak, Aljamain Sterling will find himself fighting for the belt this weekend. Took a while, for sure, but here he is once for all. It took Sterling a complete rebuild of his outlook, though, as he suffered a hurting skid from May 2016 to Dec. 2017 in which he lost three of five fights, although he rebounded mightily with five wins in a row from April 2018 to his last bout in June of last year.
Petr Yan, on the other hand, knows no defeat. He entered the UFC as recently as in June 2018 compared to Sterling's early-2014 debut, and all he's done is win, win, win, no matter what. Yan is 7-0 and he got himself the (vacant) BW belt his last time out by knocking out Jose Aldo in five rounds. Peep the numbers: 1-of-2 on takedowns, but a ridiculous 194-of-309 on significant strikes. Yikes.
While Sterling is not a newcomer and has quite the log to consider him a very serious threat, Yan's perfect resume has him as the favorite. Both men can do it on both striking and grappling, and in the past couple of years, Yan has outperformed Sterling by around 10 FP per contest. There could be an early stoppage here, and if that happens odds are Yan does it via KO and Aljamain through submitting the champ. Close call, this one, but the champ and favorite is so for a reason. Not the worst of stacks for fantasy players, though.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Islam Makhachev, $9400 - vs. Drew Dober
Do we expect a good fight to take place between these two? That could be the case. Do we expect a KO or a submission being the last call made in it? You bet! Dober has knocked the hell out of the three last men he's faced inside an octagon, and prior to that, he lost via submission to Beneil Dariush in March 2019.
Islam Makhachev has won six in a row going back to 2016 and is 4-0 since the start of 2018. Of those last four Ws, two happened in the very first round--one on a knockout, the other on a submission. And the lone time he dropped one, he did so getting KO'd himself in October 2015. All in all, these two have fought a combined 22 times and 13 of those fights didn't even reach the third round with 7 KOs and 6 submissions.
Dober is entering Saturday as the über-dog, with just a 28% winning probability. Being so bonus-points-dependent kills half of Dober's upside, but so does Makhachev's. The man losing this fight will definitely kill whoever fantasy player that puts him in his or her lineup, which sucks. That's the reason I'd pick Makhachev. He's looked great, does work on the mat, and is the clear favorite here.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Thiago Santos, $7600 - vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Thiago Santos is the most experienced fighter in the main card, having fought for the first time in the UFC all the way back in August 2013. It didn't go well for him back then, as he dropped that one and two of his first three fights inside the octagon. He put on some good performances from that moment on, though, going 11-3 from 2015 to 2018... although he's just 1-2 since the start of 2019, balked at his lone chance of snatching the LHW title from Jon Jones in July 2019 losing by decision, and then proceeded to lost his latest bout go veteran Glover Teixeira getting subbed in fewer than 12 minutes.
Rakic sits on the end of the veteran spectrum. He's fought just six times for Dana White's promo and is sitting at a rather nice 5-1 record with his loss coming in Dec. 2019 via decision in a fight in which he was still able to finish with 42 FP. Not entirely bad, if you ask me. Thiago Santos is a proven knockout-machine, having finishing 85% of his wins that way. Rakic only has two KOs to his name in his five wins, but that's already nice for such a small sample.
Neither Santos nor Rakic has been part of a KO-ending fight since mid-2019, with three decisions and a submission combined between the two in their last four fights since then. That being said, though, these two are all about them big hits and don't focus on working the mat that much. If this fight reaches a decision, then Rakic should be the better fantasy play. I'm betting on a Santos' bounceback and a KO victory here, though, which makes him my pick.
