RADIO
Last night sucked; I sucked. There is no hiding from that fact. I casually alluded to IG doing the most IG things and finding a way to lose to SNG but didn't do anything about it. SNG, to their credit, turned up the pace from their previous passive play, which bodes well for them trying to climb back into playoff contention. I can't wait for 11.4 to arrive so that Samira can finally leave because I'm so sick of seeing teams draft her into comps designed to disengage. I might never get over seeing Azir, Gragas, Alistar, and a fed Renekton all waiting for Samira to try to gap close onto a Kaisa. Just like regular fantasy analysts complain about running on first down or not adjusting your swing plane to get the ball in the air, the way teams draft still boggle my damm mind sometimes.
We're back onto the two-game slates leading up to Thursday and on into a big weekend. EDG will look to rebound versus a poor RW squad that sits in last place in the LPL. JDG looks to continue their playoff push in a showdown with FPX, who is suddenly struggling after opening the split, looking like one of the top contenders.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, March 1st, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Rogue Warriors (+900) vs. EDG (-2000)
EDG and I both get a bit of a bounceback spot here after a rough go last time out. EDG dropped their first set of the year to Invictus Gaming on Friday, so we'll get to see how they react today versus Rogue Warriors. RW did show some signs of life on Saturday, winning a game versus LGD, but other than that have been left for dead as the worst team in the LPL. Betty is back, and they have their full roster intact, so hopefully, they can continue positive progress to build some momentum into the summer split.
There can be no analysis here; RW is the worst team in the league, and EDG is among the best. RW has a higher rift herald rate, which is surprising, but EDG has every other significant stat in their favor. RW average 18.5 deaths per loss, EDG only just over 16 kills in a win. The only reason anyone plays RW today is because they need to fill out 150 lineups. They'll be sub 5% owned on a two-game slate, but I doubt even that is enough to entice me. Haro has already had many chances to get revenge on EDG since he left halfway through the 2019 season, so I think that narrative has expired, as has any chance that RW win this match.
Top EDG Plays:
- Viper - ADC - Leads the team in KS%.
- Meiko - SUP - Top KP% on the team.
- Scout - MID - third in KP% and second in KS%.
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6:00 AM: FPX (-120) vs. JDG (-105)
One thing I hate about LOL dfs is when I'm stuck on a team. Currently, I'm stuck on FPX after playing them versus RNG. I hate to jump off now, but they also looked terrible in that matchup. JDG had some trouble with TT on Friday and was one barrel from Zoom away from getting swept. So both teams are coming in with some things that need work.
FPX dominates the stats with a much better early game than the side of JDG. FPX is also decent late controlling both the total drakes and baron numbers. The problem is again for anyone facing JDG is that their team fighting is so intense that almost no lead is safe. The next question is that FPX accrued most of their stats with Bo in the jungle and not Beichuan. Finally, the biggest problem is that the rest of FPX around the jungler looked out of sync in the RNG match. JDG won't push the pace like Royal did, but they are a very coordinated team around objectives.
I HATE to do it, but I'm jumping off FPX here and siding with JDG to pick up the win. I got too cute chasing the ownership on the side of FPX last match and got exactly what I wanted. Here on a two-game slate, FPX will be 15%-20% owned no matter what. JDG will be twice that, especially with them coming in priced as dogs. They were able to outfight TT after being down, and then finally, on map three, they blocked the cross-map plays and cruised to victory. This game should be close and could go either way, so you can feel free to mix it up.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC - first in both kill metrics.
- Kanavi - JNG - second in both.
- LvMao - SUP - close third in KP%.
Top FPX Plays:
- Lwx - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS%
- Crisp - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
- Doinb - MID - best matchup into Yagao.
Summary
- TLDR: EDG 2-0, JDG 2-1, Game two is worths splitting. I can't get there on RW even though I know they'll be around 5% ownership.
- I hate jumping off FPX, and that feeling will likely nag me all day. So I'm sure I'll end up playing some. The two-game slates have been more about strategy and leverage than the larger ones.
- In that vein, going heavier on the second match and playing for EDG to cruise to a comfortable victory could be a slightly contrarian route here.
- Yesterday was a rough day in the middle of what has been an uneven split for me. IG tanked, SBG subbed and drafted especially poorly, and V5 fell flat. I had the nagging suspicion that IG would do their thing but didn't pull the trigger. I sucked. I'm sorry.
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