RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays we have identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a much larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. For this week, we use DraftKings prices as a basis, but much of what we recommend here also can be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS Research Station Spotlights: Daytona 500
Vegas Odds
The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Denny Hamlin (11 percent) has the best implied odds to win, after ending up in Victory Lane in the last two Daytona 500s. He did not have a strong run in the Daytona Duels and is going to start 24th, so he will obviously be a very popular selection for win potential and Place Differential. Do not veer away from using Hamlin ($10,400 on DraftKings) because he will be heavily rostered. You will just have to differentiate how you build lineups around him.
-Austin Dillon has pretty good implied odds to finish in the Top 3 at 13 percent, and should be well worth the spend at $8300 for such an outlook in his price range. Dillon made a great move to win the second Duel on Thursday night and he is a former Daytona 500 winner. He does start fourth, though, so there may be concerns that he will drop in the field and he may not be widely rostered. That makes him a viable tournament play, as Dillon is truly capable of pushing for a win and finishing near or just above his starting position.
-Bubba Wallace had a very fast car in the Duels and will be a popular play. The odds indicate he can stay near the top of the field from a starting position of sixth.
Superspeedway Percentage of Laps Finished
This is an important section to survey at such an unpredictable track for wrecks. Of course, any driver can wreck at any time at Daytona, but reviewing who may crash more often can help you pinpoint drivers to avoid or help you make a close lineup call. Wrecking can be due to just bad luck, but who seems to run into it more frequently?
.-Erik Jones is a name driver from last season and would seem to be an attractive play, especially starting from the No. 31 position. He appears to be an alluring value play at $7300 on DraftKings. But he has finished 81 percent of his laps on superspeedways, and a move to Richard Petty Motorsports this season can also dim his outlook more. You may be better off opting for a different bargain driver.
-Kevin Harvick has finished 88 percent of total laps on superspeedways, which is less than some of the other top drivers. He starts eighth, but was never a true contender in the Duels on Thursday and at $9700, you will likely be better off with one of several other top drivers in his price range.
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Driver Rating
Driver Rating is the best pure measure of how a driver performs at a certain track, removing racing “deals” from the rating, such as wrecks or problems in the pits.
-Joey Logano has the best recent DR at 97.5 and should move to the front of the pack from a ninth starting position at some point. He is the fifth highest priced driver on DK at $9900 and can anchor some lineups nicely, giving you the opportunity to build a more balanced lineup because you won’t be spending at the very highest levels for one of your prime drivers. He should be considered a strong contender for the win.
-If you are going to spend up just a bit more, Ryan Blaney, who has a recent DR of 94.4 at Daytona, is one of your top plays at $10,000. He has an ideal starting position of 14th, which will give you a decent amount of Place Differential points when he soars to the front. Penske Cars are always a strong bet at Daytona and Logano and his teammate Blaney are top picks this week.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
This is an excellent category to help you make some of the more challenging calls at all price ranges. We always recommend employing multiple lineups, especially at super speedways, but these stats can help you determine who are your best core and preferred drivers. You can also identify some good bargain targets with these numbers.
-Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been referred to as “Wrecky Spinhouse” because of his seemingly more frequent propensity to get involved in a mishap, but everyone is a candidate to crash at Daytona. Stenhouse’s 10.8 DR Gained vs. Similar Drivers on recent races at Daytona makes him pop out at $8100. He should at least give you a respectable Place Differential showing from a starting spot of 21st.
-There are a few significant bargain drivers that jump out from this category in recent Daytona races. Michael McDowell ($6300) has a 10.9 DR Gained vs. Similar Drivers, and he is always a good pick to perform well for the price at superspeedways. He doesn’t seem like a highly attractive PD play at 17th, but he may give you an adequate return in that regard with a good finish. Jamie McMurray is coming back out of the broadcast booth for the 500, and with a mark of 14.2 here at just $6400, he looks like a prime bargain. McMurray is even more of a super value on FanDuel at just $4200.
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