Drew Smyly (SP, ATL) - 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

Finding strong starting pitching that does not have a hefty price tag can be really tough. A lot of leagues are won by the team that had the most success with their later-round starting pitcher selections.

Blake Snell, Shane Bieber, and Dinelson Lamet are three names of the last handful of years that went in the back half of drafts and ended up either winning the Cy Young Award or getting votes for it.

Here at RotoBaller, we are doing our best to identify these pitchers for 2021. One name going late in drafts with some big potential is Drew Smyly of the Atlanta Braves.

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History

Unlike a lot of the other popular "breakout" picks, Smyly is no youngin'. He will be 32 for most of the 2021 season and is now nine years removed from his Major League debut back in 2012.

He was a pretty hyped-up prospect at one point after being selected in the second round of the 2010 draft by the Tigers. However, Smyly just has never been able to put it together, managing only 111 starts in nine years with a career 4.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Most fantasy managers had long written Smyly off, but last season lured a lot of eyeballs back. In 26.1 innings with the Giants (five starts, two relief appearances), Smyly struck out 42 hitters (14.4 K/9) while walking just nine (3.1 BB/9). That is an elite 4.7 K/BB that translated into a strong 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Signs Of Life

It is hard to get too excited about anything that happened over just a 26.1 inning sample, but there is reason to believe.

“I feel really strong right now. I don’t really ever remember throwing 95, 96 [mph]. I feel excited to pitch, I feel healthy. And it’s a fun time for me right now, just for my body and mind just to be fully healthy and helping this team try to win.”

That's a quote from Smyly from after his 3.2-inning, eight-strikeout start on September 16th last year.

Indeed, Smyly looked like a brand new pitcher last year. He added 2.6 miles per hour to his four-seamer, 2.7 to his cutter, and 2.6 to his curveball. He posted an elite 14.9% swinging-strike rate (up from a career 10.5%). His first strike rate also reached a career-high (by far) of 69.4%. Everything just seemed to click for Smyly. But again, we have to raise caution for the fact it was a very small sample size.

2021 Outlook

Most leagues will get to see some spring training games before their draft, and that will be very valuable in the case of Drew Smyly. If he comes out of the gate touching 95+ with his four-seamer, that would do a lot to solidify him as a draftable starter. If he is back in the low-90's, well that's probably not enough to write him off given that a lot of guys take time to ramp up the velocity, but it would be discouraging nonetheless.

While the sample size is probably the most important thing to note, it's also hard to ignore just how tough it is to do what Smyly did last year in terms of strikeouts and walks. A 4.7 strikeout to walk ratio puts him in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers even when allowing for all of the other small sample sizes (I ran this check for all pitchers with 20 or more innings thrown over the last six years). I am much less willing to write off great K/BB ratios in small amounts of innings compared to categories like ERA and WHIP. If Smyly has the same arsenal as last year (a big question mark), it's hard to imagine that he won't be successful when on the hill.

The team change is notable as well, as going from Oracle Ballpark to Truist Park is a pretty big downgrade in terms of allowing home runs. Some of that may be offset by his increased win potential with the Braves elite offense behind him, so all-in-all this team change doesn't change much in my mind.

All of that out of the way, now we can note that Smyly's ADP currently sits at 220, the 81st pitcher off the board. That is a pretty cheap price tag, so even if the worst-case scenario would emerge it would not be sinking your pitching staff. While Smyly is certainly a very risky option, the upside is there to make him a very interesting guy to consider in 2021.

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