RADIO
Outside of my account balance on DK and FD, I was a little bit happy to see V5 get punked due to their roster shenanigans. DRX struggled to get across the line versus Fredit, Gen G, and FPX smashed. How about BO? I mean, damm, what a performance from the rookie.
Speaking of roster shenanigans, T1 is in action today, but don't worry; they are the early game, so we'll get the starting announcement pre-lock. We'll also have a closely contested second game in the LCK and LPL, while the previous games both look like cakewalks. The TES/JDG finals rematch promises some fireworks, so let's get to it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, January 31st, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AFS (+280) vs. T1 (-425)
T1 in the early game will be a welcome change, and it should make them useful in dfs tonight. No guesswork and the possibility of value when they switch up the starters and the sites are left guessing as well as we are. AFS got a cute win over NSRF after a thrown game-ending team fight, which cause RF to spiral out of control in game two. We all know I do not like this AFS team, but I also don't like continuous roster swaps, so let's see who wins this one.
AFS have the lead in early game stats with an edge in first turret, rift herald, GD@15, first drake, and first blood. T1 has better baron numbers, AFS better dragon, and both teams vision numbers are similar. AFS will have the edge in continuity with the T1 swaps and blue side for this contest. Man, AFS must be gonna pull the upset here, huh? T1 has played first, second, third, fifth, and ninth-placed teams so far, while AFS has only played two teams ranked above them and lost to both.
AFS is not good, and if you want to play the continuity and experience card here, I won't endorse it, but I get it. You can even hit me with the Bang revenge narrative, but I'll stick with the talent on T1 to get the win. I'm hoping for some shuffling of the T1 roster to open up some mild Sunday morning values. The upside here isn't fantastic as both AFS average 13.5 deaths in their losses, and T1 under 17 kills in their wins. Maybe the reduction in resistance will increase that T1 total, but I'll stick to small stacks.
Top T1 Plays
- I'll wait until T1 announces the starters before committing to anything here besides Keria.
7:00 AM: NSRF (-110) vs. KT (-125)
These odd seem off to me, as at first glance, I would expect KT to be favored by more. They are coming in on two straight wins over T1 and DRX with a close series loss to HLE previous. NSRF are 1-2 in their last three, with their only dub being over Brion. Let's see what's up with that.
KT has a small edge early game with GD@15, first blood, and rift heralds in their favor. They also have the advantage in CSM and GPM for a slightly better economy. Total drakes are even, but Nongshim has better baron numbers. KT's vision numbers are also better, and they have played better teams so far too. So to me, the statistical edge goes over to KT.
The players line up pretty closely in the jungle and bot lane, with those two being the most critical positions right now is where Vegas is probably taking its cues from. KT has a clear edge top and mid, and I like them here quite a bit. I imagine we see this line steam further in their favor as NSRF opened as -140 favorites. With KT priced as dogs on DraftKings, it will be tough to move away from them today. Paying more for NSRF will be an excellent way to leverage the perceived KT chalk in a close matchup.
Top KT Plays:
- Ucal - MID - looks in 2018 form and has a great matchup into Bay.
- D07an - TOP - this dude could be the spring MVP, and I'm never dropping that nickname. He's third on the team in KP% and also has an excellent matchup into Rich.
- Blank - JNG - classic LCK matchup versus Peanut, but it's no longer 2017. Should start and showed versus DRX, he can still Score.
- Hybrid- ADC - best KS% on the team, but the KS is lacking.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Rare Atom (-500) vs. Rogue Warriors (+315)
Rare Atom comes in on the backs of a couple of rough losses and looks for a get right spot versus RW. On the other hand, RW has shown to be possibly the worst team in the league since the fluky win over TES. They have gotten drilled, losing in four consecutive sweeps since that win. Do they have a chance today?
Outlook, not good as the magic eight ball would say. While Rare Atom has struggled in the early game, RW has been worse. RA has the edge in GD@15, first turret, and first three turrets. They have a better economy and lead in CSM, GPM, and hold a decided DPM advantage. Drakes, barons, and vision score are all also in favor of Rare Atom.
Rogue Warriors do have the narrative of Forge's revenge on their side, but maybe Leyan wants revenge on him. Who knows? RW is starting Quiqui at adc, and if you don't remember, he was once TES's starting adc. He also picked up a spot start for TES last split when Jackie was sick, which he famously won. This announcement will further the RA chalk movement, but it's going to be hard not to jump on. RW also average nearly 20 deaths in their losses while RA are over 20 kills in their wins. Perfect storm of a great spot and great numbers.
Top RA Plays:
- I like em all and would mix and match based on your other stacks as needed. I think you can fade Iboy if you're bold with his KP% barely above that of Cube.
6:00 AM Top Esport (-260) vs. JDG (+185)
Another game of the week in the LPL, although fair, seems like we've got one of these daily. The last two have fallen flat, but this double final rematch from 2020 could be different. Both teams have had light early schedules, TES having played five series and JDG only four through four weeks. So our stats are a bit on the light side.
TES has the early edge here with a better first blood, first turret, GD@15, first three turrets, and first drake rates. TES also has the edge in total drakes and baron numbers. JDG predictably has the advantage in vision score, and they have the consistency edge with the regular roster announced as starting. Zhou has been good for TES, but he has also been overaggressive. He and JKL make for quite the all-in combo in the bot lane for TES.
Both teams have trolled their jungle picks recently; either that or they are ahead of the meta. Kanavi on Elise was funny until it wasn't. He dominated an early bot lane dive that instantly made the champion look overpowered. Karsa's Gragas versus LGD was similar, recalling Ning's MVP performance in the 2018 finals with his ability to make enemy champs disappear at will. The jungle matchup will go a long way to determine this series outcome. I like Kanavi in the matchup, and I think he does have a better grasp of the meta right now, but as Karsa famously said, the meta is whoever is playing the best.
I think TES win this one, but JDG is super live as I believe they have the edge in the jungle and bot lane. Mid meta right now is Twisted Fate, Gallio, and the control mages; this deemphasizes Knights advantage in lane as Yagao can choose not to participate instead focusing on roaming and joining side lane skirmishes. Both teams can score well in a win, and JDG likely has the better kill upside, with TES averaging over 20 deaths in their losses.
Top TES plays
- Jackeylove - ADC - leads team in both KP% and KS%
- Zhou - SUP - the aggressive bot duo makes for a nice stack.
- Karsa - JNG - third in KP% behind those two.
- Knight - MID - is still deadly even if Yagao chooses to sideline.
Top JDG plays
- Kanavi - JNG - primary win condition for JDG in this match.
- LvMao - SUP - unsurprisingly leads the team in KP%.
- Loken - ADC - 36.6% kill share and a lane matchup with the always volatile JKL.
- Zoom - TOP - I mean, have you heard about him.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0, KT 2-1, RA 2-0, and TES 2-1. JDG are live as dogs, NSRF opened as favs, so you'll pay more for them, but the leverage is oh so sweet.
- Both LPL matches project higher than the LCK side, and that's not a surprise, but if you're not willing to pay for Nongshim full stacking KT could be a way to embrace the chalk while being a bit different.
- I hope we get three games in the JDG/TES series because I'd hate for another premium matchup to disappoint.
- No more shenanigans, I swear.
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