RADIO
The reverse fixtures of matchweek 13 didn't bring us a reversal of luck as we failed to bank a winner. Burnley scored three goals in a game for the first time this season to win a five-goal thriller against Aston Villa. We were one booking away from banking in the Manchester United v Sheffield United game, remarkable given the league's bottom side didn't even need to time-waste at the end to see it through and the league's most card friendly referee only brandished two bookings for the 22 fouls in the game. Everton also missed two glorious late chances to bag us the win and the correct score but we did at least get our money back after taking the 'draw no bet' option. This weekend sees a more traditional matchweek with six fixtures on Saturday and a further four on Sunday.
- Picks total - 21 out of 52
- Parlays - 1 out of 17
- Correct scores - 7 out of 53
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, January 30th, 2021
Aston Villa @ Southampton - 3:00 pm ET
Aston Villa came unstuck away at Burnley in midweek as their recent defensive issues reared their ugly head again. After a run of four straight league clean sheets, they've now conceded eight goals in their last five games which includes a clean sheet against the league's worst form team (Newcastle United). At the other end of the pitch, Villa is fine with just two blanks in their last 13 league games, one of which came against table-toppers Manchester City and the other against Burnley when they hit the woodwork twice. In 18 league games this season, Villa has scored more than one in eight games and conceded more than one in eight games too.
Southampton succumbed to Arsenal 3-1 on Tuesday after taking an early lead. While they did look a threat going forward, Arsenal was in scintillating form and had arguably their best performance of the season against them. That made it back-to-back defeats for the Saints following a 2-0 defeat against high-flying Leicester. They have been struggling for goals recently with just two in their last six games. Prior to this run, they scored in 12 consecutive league games dating back to matchweek 2. Southampton has had 29 shots at goal in their last two games and still looks dangerous so it's only a matter of time before they start hitting the back of the net frequently and there's no better time than the team directly above them who are struggling defensively.
Southampton beat Aston Villa 4-3 earlier this season.
Aston Villa 10th - 29 pts
Southampton 11th - 29 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Both teams to score & over 2.5 total goals @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, January 31st, 2021
Leeds United @ Leicester City - 9:00 am ET
Leeds shook off two straight defeats by beating Newcastle 2-1 on Tuesday, furthering the pressure on Newcastle manager Steve Bruce. Leeds continues to be entertaining but they have struggled all season against the top-6 sides. In their 6 games against top-6 sides, they have one draw and five losses with an aggregate score of 8-20 which includes a 4-1 defeat to Leicester earlier this season.
Leicester will likely be without top-scorer Jamie Vardy again but even without him at Everton on Wednesday, they had 65% possession and 18 shots so were still able to play their usual attacking style. Defensively, Leicester has tightened things up with two of their seven clean sheets this season coming in their last three games and just eight goals conceded in their last ten games.
Their first meeting saw Leeds dominate possession (67%) and have more shots (11-9) and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another similar style game with Leicester being more clinical and winning comfortably.
Leeds United 12th - 26 pts
Leicester City 3rd - 39 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 1 Leeds United (Pinnacle odds +1250)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Leicester City to win & over 1.5 total goals @ +112 (Draftkings)
Brighton @ Tottenham - 2:15 pm ET
Brighton was held at home by Fulham on Wednesday and their winless run at home extends back into 2019. They have won just three games this season with nine draws from 20 games. Of the ten games they have played against sides in the top half of the table, they have one victory (against 10th placed Aston Villa) and two draws so just five of their 18 points have come against teams in the top-10.
As of writing, Tottenham is about to play an out of form Liverpool side. Regardless of the outcome in that game, I don't see anything other than a Tottenham win on Sunday. Brighton has been more resilient and reserved of late which might actually help Tottenham as they continue their style of defense first and nicking a lead to hold on to. That has led to problems as three of their last seven games have ended 1-1 after they took the lead.
Tottenham won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season despite having less possession (44%-56%) and only two shots on target. In a familiar trend, Tottenham took the lead, sat back and then conceded. Only this time they found a winner late. This game will likely play out in a similar format but Brighton's recent struggles in front of goal (one goal in three games) make it less likely they'll find an equalizer after inevitably going behind.
Brighton 17th - 18 pts
Tottenham 6th - 33 pts
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Tottenham to win @ +120 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks @ +833
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back Monday this week for the matchweek 22 picks.
