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Justin Carter breaks down the tight end rookie class for the 2021 NFL Draft to project their long-term fantasy football values in redraft and dynasty leagues.
Let's talk about Kyle Pitts.
Sorry, sorry, sorry. I mean, let's talk about the 2021 tight end class, which is headlined by Kyle Pitts, but also features some players who aren't Kyle Pitts.
Below, you'll find some analysis of some of the tight ends that should be drafted this year. They're in no particular order other than the fact that Kyle Pitts is first because he's an elite tight end prospect who could easily be drafted in the top-10 this year.
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Kyle Pitts, Florida
You know how usually there will be a lot of debate about who is the top prospect at each position as the draft approaches?
Yeah, not this year when it comes to tight end. Kyle Pitts is the guy in 2021.
The only tight end consistently being mocked in the first round, Pitts has a chance to sneak inside the top-10 by the time draft night arrives. And with the tight end position being fairly down league-wide, he could pretty swiftly establish himself as one of the top players in the NFL at the position.
Pitts is coming off a huge season at Florida, as he caught 43 balls for 770 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was third in college football in touchdown receptions behind Heisman winner DeVonta Smith and North Texas wideout Jaelon Darden.
Where Pitts excels is in his ability to play all over the field. Sure, he can be an in-line tight end, but more than anyone else at his position in this class, he can be moved all over the field to create mismatches. His size makes him a huge mismatch when he's on the outside, and I definitely want to see how Pitts fares against elite corners and if his size advantage is negated by their speed advantage. He probably won't create elite separation when he moves outside, but will his size make him an elite jump-ball threat? Will linebackers be any match for Pitts? Is he going to revolutionize the tight end position???
Okay, too far on that last one. But no player in this class has a higher upside versus the rest of their position than Pitts has. He could be the rare rookie tight end who has value in fantasy re-draft leagues.
Brevin Jordan, Miami
Look, nothing against Jordan or any other tight end in this class, but the drop off from Pitts to the rest of these guys is fairly stark. That doesn't mean that the other guys don't have the ability to be long-term NFL starters, though.
Jordan is coming off his best collegiate season, catching 38 passes for 576 yards and seven touchdowns. He's had between 32 and 38 catches in each of his three seasons, but the yardage and the yards per reception increased each year as Jordan became more comfortable in that Miami offense.
An NFL team can use Jordan in a variety of ways and he is a solid blocker. He wasn't used in the red zone as much as we'd have liked him to be last year, but he can make things happen between the 20s.
I know a friend of the site, John Laub, is fairly high on Jordan:
Laub's breakdown refers to Jordan as having an "elite combination of size, speed, and athleticism." And while recent NFL history is littered with tight ends who fit that description and then struggle at the next level, I think Jordan is someone who you should definitely take a chance on.
Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
The last of the guys who feel like locks to start in the NFL, Freiermuth had 23 catches for 310 yards last year despite playing just four games due to a shoulder injury. That limited sample can make it tough to evaluate him, but the tape on him screams "good NFL receiver."
Using AddMoreFund's CFB receiving database, we can see that Freiermuth was third at the position in targets per game at 8.75, behind Colorado's Brady Russell (who played one game) and Kyle Pitts (who is Kyle Pitts).
There are concerns about his blocking ability and how that will translate to the next level, but overall his receiving skill is what shines, and it's what will ensure he sticks in the NFL as a starting tight end. He might take longer to see the field than the other two, but you aren't drafting rookie tight ends in re-draft, and outside of Pitts, you aren't taking them with year-one production in mind in most dynasty leagues either.
Hunter Long, Boston College
This is where things get a lot more tentative. This is a three-tight end draft, but there is some potential value deeper in the field. It's just unclear how much upside there is with the guys after Pitts, Jordan, and Freiermuth.
Long was the most targeted tight end in college football last year, with 77 targets in nine games. He was fourth in targets per game:
So, why am I not as high on Long? I'm just not sold on him having the athleticism to do what he did at Boston College against NFL defenses. He'll probably be a solid blocker and a solid pass catcher in the NFL, but it's hard to see him excelling in the ways that the first three guys can because I worry about his ability to create separation or get usage down the field. He's not as dynamic as we might want from a tight end when we're thinking specifically about fantasy football, even if he has the skills to stick as a low-end starter or high-end backup in the NFL. He'll move the chains. He'll be effective as a blocker. I just don't see the same elite upside as the others.
Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame
Finally, Notre Dame's Tommy Tremble.
The skill and upside are there, but the college production hasn't been. In 2019, he caught 16 passes for 183 yards and four touchdowns while backing up Cole Kmet, but we expected a breakout in 2020. Instead, we got 19 catches for 218 yards and no touchdowns, with Michael Mayer ending up as the best Notre Dame tight end.
Betting on Tremble is scary. He looks like he can be a dynamic pass-catching threat in the NFL, someone who can be used in a multitude of ways, but then we look at the actual production from him and are left with so many questions. Maybe it's just that he's never been the best tight end in South Bend, so he never got to show those skills enough? Mayer did have 4.18 targets per game to Tremble's 2.5 this year, so it makes sense that Mayer was better. But Tremble's five red-zone targets resulted in no touchdowns, which is a definite concern.
I don't know. This is a boom-or-bust kind of pick. Depending on the landing spot, I'd take a shot late in a rookie draft just because of the positional scarcity at tight end and the potential upside here.
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