RADIO
T1 going to T1, I guess. I went on record as 60/40 Gumayusi/Teddy and took the L. On the upside, I get to continue to use my Liquid Metal T1 meme, so that's nice. We will have to continue to watch T1 closely and tread lightly when they are in the late game. Their new top laner Zeus will be available for Sunday's match, but they will be in the opener, so we'll have the starters.
First place is on the line as one faces two in the LCK and an undefeated clash in the late LPL game. No T1 means we won't see much in the way of lineup shenanigans either, so there can be some set it and forget it for the diurnal among us. We've got some top of the table clashes today, so I'm excited to dig into those.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, January 29th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Nongshim (-205) vs. AFS (+150)
NSRF did right by me last time out by dusting Brion and reminding everyone that Freit is the worst team in the league. They also claimed the title of unofficial champions of the world in beating Brion, who beat DWG to claim it in the first place. Now they'll defend their imaginary belt against AFS, who, as we all remember, screwed us all versus Liiv and are the second-worst team in the league. I need to remember that.
NSRF and AFS have played the same four teams thus far, sweeping Brion, but DWG, in turn, swept both. They both lost to DRX on the red side, and NSRF beat Liiv on blue while AFS lost to Liiv while on the red. NSRF will have the blue side for this matchup, and I think that might be all the boost they need to get over on AFS. Blue side win rate is at 59% through three weeks in the LPL and 62.5% after two weeks of LCK play.
The teams are close in their CSM and GPM stats, with AFS holding a slight edge in each; it is NSRF that are converting that gold into DPM, though, as they have a decided advantage. AFS should own the early game, as they lead in gd@15, first blood, first turret, first drake, and rift herald. NSRF lead in baron percentage, but AFS have the lead in drakes and vision numbers. So statistically speaking, AFS has the edge early and stay close late.
AFS has the edge in the solo lanes by a whisker, with NSRF eeking out leads in the jungle and bottom duo. I think that, too, coupled with the side selection making things easier for NSRF, should be enough for them to win this matchup. There is only one problem, and that is they won't score for anything. RedForce in kills per win only average 14, and Afreeca in losses also average 14, and that's a problem. What's not a problem is how badly NSRF feeds when they lose, averaging over 21 deaths per loss. Afreeca in wins, sit at just over 19 kills. That means no matter how much I hate Afreeca and tolerate RedForce, this has to be a dog or pass spot for me.
Top AFS Plays
- Fly - MID - leads team in KS% and has a nice matchup into Bay.
- Bang - ADC - KS% leader can still get it done on scaling champs,
- Lehends - SUP - I like coordinating bot duos today almost no matter where you land.
- Dread - JNG - he's isn't great, but his stats are.
7:00 AM: DWG (-335) vs. HLE (+235)
Two teams that are near the top of the tilt list for me face off on Friday. I'll get it out of the way now, and I'm probably wrong, but I don't think HLE is good. Maybe this is a tilt from the KT loss, but I refuse to trust this team as I still can't see them as anything but Chovy. DWG gave us all quite a ride versus Gen G, but no fantasy points for our troubles. Let's see if either of them will be worth bothering with on Friday.
DWG should come out swinging against HLE. They have been trading rift herald and first turret for first drake and translating that into an average gold differential at 15 of 1900. DWG also holds the edge in first blood, first three turrets, and barons. HLE has a slight edge in drakes and DPM as they have been very scrappy this year. CSM is slightly in favor of DWG as Chovy can't be in all three lanes at once, but the GPM of the teams is nearly equal. DWG also has the added edge of the blue side for the match.
Both teams average around 17 deaths per loss, with DWG matching that in kills per win, but HLE pushes their KPW up to 21. Curiously from a combined kills death standpoint, DWG is the slowest team this year, whereas HLE is the fastest in the LCK. HLE has been scrappy this year and might draw DWG out of their shell a bit. Unlike the first LCK match, the upside is here for both teams, and since HLE is free, I don't mind taking a shot on them on Friday. I think DWG gets the win, but with the pricing as it is on DK, I may end up with more HLE. The line is moving in favor of HLE, adding more value to them. Again this is something to monitor thorough the day.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG - second in KP%, and third in KS% will need to outstrip Arthur for DWG to get the dub.
- Khan - TOP - average kill metrics, but the best matchup of anyone.
- Showmaker - MID -speaking of matchups, I hate this one into Chovy, but DWG will need to keep the opposing mid down.
- Ghost - ADC - leads the team in kill share, but I don't know if you can full stack DWG.
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - MID - NO DOI!
- Arthur - JNG - third in KS%, but second in KP%.
- Deft - ADC - I still think he's dust, but the numbers for HLE in a win here compared to their pricing are nuts
- Vsta - SUP - If Deft is up, Vsta likely trails after.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Estar (+210) vs. LNG (-300)
Poor eStar, it's almost like they are destined to get the brakes beat off them every time out. Things will look up for the next week when they get a softball in the matchup with TT and a close matchup with V5. Tonight though, they will face an LNG team that is fresh off a win over BLG and looking forward to a week off before meeting FPX. I still think I'm higher on this LNG squad than others, even though I picked BLG over them the other day.
LNG should get the drop on eStar, and they have a 2-1 edge in first blood rate with LNG at 70% and eStar sitting only at 33%. LNG has the advantage in heralds, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. They should be up early in this one. Estar should pick up the first drake and start stacking those looking for late-game, especially with LNG focused across the map.
Irma has been surprisingly good for eStar, and I don't think we can automatically count him out in the matchup with Icon. Light has himself been quietly excellent for the side of LNG, and if Tarzan captures that first rift herald, I would bet dollars to donuts, it will be sent bot to try to get the duo ahead. I like LNG to take this matchup, but if you're feeling eStar, they could score very well since they will likely be fighting from behind, and that's a spot that has yielded plenty of fantasy points this year thus far. I think the actual formula is better team from behind, but who's counting.
Top LNG Plays:
- Icon - MID - don't count out Irma, but Icon does lead the team in kill participation and checks in second in kill share.
- Tarzan - JNG - good matchup into H4cker.
- Light - ADC - 75% KP on my adc, yes, please.
- Lwandy - SUP - LNG average 2.5 assists per kill, which is very high with four of the five teammates in the 70s for KP% I like this spot.
6:00 AM: WE (-200) vs. RNG (+145)
What a hype matchup this is as two of our three undefeated LPL teams square off. Royal come in after holding off a V5 squad that was able to push them to three games and was a few fights away from taking them down. Team World Elite mollywhomped LNG to close out week three and have now had five days off to prep for the showdown with Royal.
We've got another matchup where the teams likely trade objectives early, with WE favoring the drake stack over the herald play. RNG has the edge in first blood, heralds, and first turrets, but WE answer with drakes, barons, and the better first three turret rate. The two teams are nearly even in GPC, CSM, and RNG holds a narrow edge in DPM. I give the edge slightly to WE, and they will have the added boost of blue side. RNG better just ban Shanks Orianna as he has yet to miss a shockwave all split (/sarc).
Xiaohu will have his hands full in the top lane with Breathe, who has proven to be a great pick up for Team WE. In the jungle matchup, Beishang has been untouchable this split, and even though I like the way Wei has played more for his team, I think Bae gets the win here. Shanks has been another excellent addition for WE, but all Orianna jokes aside, I believe Cryin has been better thus far. Just going down the list here, and I was quite surprised to see that I like the bot duo of RNG over that of WE, and it's not all Ming. Gala is out farming, out damaging, and has better KP% than does Juimeng.
The bot duo will give RNG a chance in this one, but I do prefer WE for the win. I think they have played better opponents thus far; both teams will spend a lot of looking to the bot side of the map, and WE favoring the early drake stacks is, I feel, a more reliable strategy than trying to snowball with the herald. The kill numbers make this one POP. Both teams are over 20 deaths in their losses and over 18 kills in their wins. RNG is a bit skewed by that monster game one versus OMG. I want a lot of this game for Friday am, not enough to game stack as there are some other nice spots from which to choose.
Top WE plays
- Juimeng - ADC - first in both kill metrics, centerpiece of WE's bot centric approach.
- Beishang - JNG - when WE when spring split, he will be voted MVP. Right Kal?
- Shanks - MID - second in KP%, distant third in kill share.
- Missing - SUP - like the bot duo here if WE pops.
Top RNG plays
- Gala - ADC - if WE are going to force plays bot, they might be unpleasantly surprised.
- Wei- JNG - will need a big day to get over on Beishang.
- Cryin - MID - third in KS% RNG are at 2.5 assists per kill, and they too nearly have four members in the 70s for kill participation.
- Ming - SUP - like the bot duo here if RNG pops.
- Xiaohu - TOP - my pet theory is we see him play at least one game in mid sooner rather than later; we saw OMG do that versus RNG with Wuming and Bright swapping. I can see Cryin and Xiaohu doing the same thing to get into favorable matchups.
Summary
- TLDR: RedForce 2-1, DWG 2-1, LNG 2-0, WE 2-1. I like Nongshim to win, but I don't think they score well at all, so it's dog or pass for me. Similarly, I believe HLE adds up better in the second LCK match, especailly given DWG prices. The Ssssnake boys are probably in the best spot to ssssweep, and both sides are in play as slate breakers in the LPL finale.
- Incredible slate for gpps tonight; hopefully, one of us will get to the top. I'm so thankful to you for tuning in and joining me for these breakdowns and the corresponding games. Remember to get after DK about dropping us some more significant contests on a week from Saturday to return five-game slates.
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