RADIO
Last night was as close as I thought it would be, and we did see some more one-off lineups take the day. Both of my underdogs fell short in a sad way. V5 with some poor calls around the herald, and BLG with another questionably draft in game one. Gloomy days indeed, but with a four-gamer on the horizon, things are looking up.
We've got a few big favorites in action across both leagues tonight and one prime time matchup that could be the key to the slate. We'll have to look closely at the numbers to get out spots right tonight, and another off stack lineup might just be the play. Let's get to it.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, January 27th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM HLE (-550) vs. Fredit Brion (+340)
HLE comes in riding a two-match win streak over KT and Gen G. They were fortunate to get one over on KT, and Gen scarcely less so. Even though Freit Brion showed precisely who they were again in their last match versus Nongshim, I can't help but worry they may be able to pull another upset here. Let us take a look, shall we?
There is no way, right? Fredit only has the edge in two things first, blood and vision numbers. CSM, GPM, and DPM all also heavily swing in HLE's favor. HLE also has the edge in CHOVY. It might not seem like much, but ask Gen G sometimes that advantage alone is enough to win a match. Umti and Arthur in the jungle is pretty even, and statistically speaking, outside of that monster 13 kill game, Deft is not the same this year. His duo partner Vsta has not been right either. Hena and Cresent have held up well, but overall the talent edge goes to HLE as well.
Better stats, better players, better team, what on earth would have me worried for a Fredit upset here? For starters, the LCK has been every bit as unpredictable as the LPL this split, and second this is a tough spot for HLE. Sunday, the last match of the week, was their big win over Gen G, and Friday, they play DWG. They likely took Monday off after that big win and only have one day to prep for Brion. With DWG looming, it's easy to see how HLE could overlook Fredit in this spot.
I'm just theory-crafting with that line of reasoning. I don't think HLE lose here, but I also don't think they will be worth the price. People point to AFS scoring well versus Brion, but that had more to do with AFS inability to close out. I point to the nine kill win Gen G had against them, or Nonghsim's 11 kill victory. I think this one is slow, steady, and easy for the side of HLE.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - ADC - as he goes, so goes this team.
- Morgan - TOP - second in KP% and third in KS%.
- HLE - TEAM - slow and steady, and huge statistical edge on these objectives.
7:00 AM: DWK (-235) vs. Generation Gaming (+170)
You ever notice how sometimes I use the abbreviation for a team like DWK for Damwon Kia, and then others I spell it out. Well, remember when your mom used to call you by your full name when you were in trouble? Yeah, it's like that. Generation Gaming, you've got some explaining to do. I know Chovy this and Chovy that, well I don't want to hear it. The LCK is looking more wide open than the LPL, and I feel like it's been years since we've been able to say that. I should probably spell them both out because Damwon Kia, you damm near lost to AFS, and you did fall to Freit Brion. Talk about a hangover, huh?
We're still talking about a top-tier matchup here with two of the best teams in the region, and despite their recent struggles, it will be a banger. DWG has a better average gold lead at fifteen, but Gen G has the early stats edge. They lead in first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and first drake; DWK has the rift herald percentage. The first blood is solidly in favor of Gen G 80% to 33%, but all the rest are below five percent differentials between the two teams. It's going to be close, DWK lead in CSM by a hair, and Gen G the same with GPM. Gen have the edge in Baron percentage as well, and that plus their vision edge gives them a statistical advantage in the matchup for me.
The players are evenly matched, with Gen G having the edge in the top and bot lane but the mid jungle duo going over to DWK. Clid plays more for his laners, looking for the ganks, trying to get them ahead. Canyon gets himself up early, then looks to transition that around the map. Rascal has been the class of the league when it comes to top laners, and though Khan has been suitable in his return to the LCK, Clid will likely pay this lane a visit or two to jump-start Rascal. The bot lane is his expected first target. Ghost won't be comfortably allowed to farm up while Beryl roams.
I think this one is closer than the odds indicate, and if DWK keeps sleepwalking through matches, it will take them more time yet to recover that world title form. Last summer, when DWG was the most dominant team globally, they still split with Gen G one match apiece and three games each. For them to be sitting at 37% implied odds to win is a bit overcooked to me, especially when I like them to win. As expected, after a few poor showings from DWG, this line is moving in Gen G's favor giving them even more value.
It's a tough one for me to call, as, much like wanting to be off the undefeated LPL squads before they lose, I want to be on DWG when they put together a performance reminiscent of last year. I also think that's not going to be today, and so I will take Gen G for the win. I also love that discounted pricing on both sides here, and with this being the closest match of the night, I think both sides are in play.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - Sticking with the best matchups, plus Ruler is first in KP% and KS% on the team.
- Rascal - TOP - third in KP%, but second in KS%.
- Gen G - TEAM - they are always in play for me. Gen G plays by the book and doesn't risk much.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - ADC - first in KP% and KS% on the team.
- Canyon - JNG - third in KS%, but second in KP%.
- DWK - TEAM - The matchups for the rest of the team are terrifying.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Estar (+500) vs. FPX (-950)
Poor eStar, they come out from an 0-2 loss to IG and into a showdown with FPX. FunPlus is on a nice little streak now and will be looking to add another notch to their belt. This one seems like a walk in the park, but will FPX pay off their prices?
FPX early games look healthy, and they lead eStar in every early category besides first drake. FPX are also tops in the league in CSM, second in GPM, and tops in DPM. The vision numbers are close between the teams, and I expect FPX to blow eStar out of these games before the 15-minute mark. FPX average gold differential at 15 is 1100, and eStar is -400. Combine that with the powerful laners on the side of FPX, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Estar only gives up 17 deaths per loss, and FPX only takes 17.5 kills in their wins. That puts them behind IG and DWG in projections and about on even footing with Gen G should they win. I think that FPX, with the highest prices on the slate and an easy path to victory, are not worth their prices. Be very selective with your plays here, or stay away.
Top FPX Plays:
- Bo - JNG - highest KP% on the team in a two-game sample size.
- LWX - ADC - insane 41.5% kill share could make him worth it if eStar forgets to ban Kaisa.
- Crisp - SUP - second on the team in KP%, and if LWX pops, he might come along for the ride.
6:00 AM: IG (-500) vs. RW (+315)
IG has had a lovely break since dropping a 2-0 on Estar last Wednesday, and they get a soft matchup with RW to ease themselves back into the week. RW just got run off the rift by V5 on Sunday and have another problematic matchup here. Does RW have a chance to pull out another big upset like they did versus TES? Let's find out?
IG has an advantage early and late versus RW. They hadn't lost a match to RW since 2018 when Doinb was on the team, and I expect them to add to that tally today. RW only has the edge in vision stats. Everything else favors IG, and I think we see a smooth 2-0, the same as when IG faced eStar. Much like the LCK matchups, the only worry I have for IG is that they face FPX on Saturday. We could see them looking ahead of this match, but with the week off to prep for both games, I think even that is a stretch.
The hype matchup here will be Rookie into Forge, the man who replaced him briefly in the summer of 2019 when Rookie was having family trouble. So I doubt there is any animosity there, but Forge was on IG youth for a long time and needed to get out from under Rookie's shadow. RW gives over 18.25 deaths in their losses, and IG is over 19 kills in their wins. I think IG will be popular tonight, but I also think they've got the best spot for kills upside. The IG caveat always applies though, their kill participation isn't significant, and they only average 2.1 assists per kill. I have a hard time believing that a full IG four-man can be optimal due to that.
Top IG plays
- Xun - JNG - Leads the team in kill share, second in KP%
- Rookie - MID - first in KP%, distant third in kill share.
- Wink - ADC - third in KP%, but second in kill share.
- Baolan - SUP - like the bot duo here if IG pop.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-0, GEN 2-1, FPX 2-0, IG 2-0. They are even a bigger value with the line moving toward Gen G than they were this am. They are also the only dog I like.
- So if I don't think FPX or HLE pay off their salaries, I only want bits and pieces of those teams instead of stack. Chovy, Lwx, Dudu, Bo, or the team slots. IG has a better upside, but they have poor KP%. Neither Gen G or DWG are likely to sweep, and that might limit their upside.
- Gen have given up 20 deaths in their losses, and with the line movement, I expect dfs ownership to follow. This might be the spot to jump back on DWG even without the probability of the sweep. They are dirt cheap and will likely be under-owned due to some underwhelming performances and people jamming Gen G to reach for bigger favs.
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