Kirby Yates to the Blue Jays - Fantasy Impact

The Toronto Blue Jays made a trio of free-agent signings over the last week. The big news of course was outfielder George Springer signing a six-year deal with Toronto (for more on that check out Frank Ammirante's analysis of Springer's fantasy impact in 2021). But the other big acquisition for the Blue Jays was landing former Padres closer Kirby Yates on a one-year deal.

After leading the majors with 41 saves in 2019, Yates made only six appearances last year before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. Yates says that he's healthy again, and he'll look to prove that this season pitching in the AL East — back where he first began his career in 2014 with Tampa Bay. But there's a bigger question on fantasy managers' than his health, and that's how will Yates fit in to the Blue Jays bullpen?

Yates is a proven closer, but can he regain his 2019 value this year pitching north of the border? Let's take a look at what he brings to the table and who he'll be competing with at the back-end of the Toronto bullpen.

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Welcome to the Yates Motel

Now there's not really much you can take away from Yates 2020 campaign, as he threw just 101 pitches for a grand total of 4.1 innings. His exit velocity (86.2 mph) was slightly better than in 2019 (86.9 mph), but his launch angle rose almost four degrees to 14.9. He also posted career-bests with a 58.7 percent contact rate and 18.8 percent swinging strike rate. But again — 4.1 innings, so you can't extrapolate much from that.

So instead let's look at his 2019 campaign and look at his trends from over the last few years. Long story short, 2019 was the best single season of his career: he posted career-bests in just about every category including strikeout rate (41.6%), walk rate (5.3%), exit velocity (86.9 mph) and launch angle (11.0 degrees). He also posted a 2.5 percent barrel rate, ranking him in the top-10 among qualifying relievers.

Take a look at how his 2019 season compared to his totals from the previous four seasons:

He had already seen a slight uptick in his numbers in 2018 before really going off in 2019, and that rise lines up with an increase in the usage of his splitter — going from 9.7 percent in 2017 to 37 percent in 2018 to 41.9 percent in 2019. A full 2020 season would have helped fantasy managers get a better idea of the repeatability of Yates' All-Star performance, but the numbers suggest he should be able to pitch close to those numbers again this year.

Now according to TSN Blue Jays analyst Scott Mitchell, it's likely that Yates won't be named the full-time closer right out the gates. Instead, he'll likely be competing with Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano for saves early on. Dolis returned to the majors in 2020 after spending the last four seasons playing in Japan, and he was predicted to be the likely closer for Toronto after splitting the role with Anthony Bass in the final month of the season. He had success missing bats last season, posting a 12.6 percent swinging strike rate and 31 percent strikeout rate. But his 14 percent walk rate was by no means good, and he was likely getting somewhat lucky when you compare his 1.50 ERA to his 3.02 FIP, 4.01 xFIP and 3.97 SIERA.

Meanwhile, Romano only recorded two saves last season, but he was still one of the strongest arms in the pen for Toronto with a 36.8 percent strikeout rate, 8.8 percent walk rate, and a 19.4 percent swinging strike rate. Romano was likely going to be second in line for saves early on, but could have competed with Dolis for the full-time role. But with Yates now in the mix, it seems like Toronto may be running with somewhat of a closer-by-committee situation with Yates likely still getting the lion's share of the save opportunities according to Mitchell.

2021 Outlook

Even with Dolis and Romano in the mix, Yates will still be the guy managers should target first on draft day. The only question is where to draft him. Yates currently boasts an ADP of 218, which has him going well before Romano at 382 and Dolis at 424. Given the potential for Yates to miss out on some save opportunities over the course of the season, that seems to be a reasonable ADP for him — especially since he's coming off surgery and entering his age-34 season. But managers that buy into a return to 2019 form for Yates and want to bet on him establishing himself as the undisputed closer early on should look to target Yates at an ADP as high as 175. Be warned though: Toronto has not had a 30-save closer since 2017.

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