RADIO
A vast majority of you are done with your fantasy season, thanks to the overwhelming number of leagues that end their playoffs in Week 16. Considering the specialized nature of the IDP format, the odds are that most IDP setups are done by now. That said, not all fantasy teams are finished, and not all IDP leagues are fully cooked. Some of you are still saddling up to travel the unknown wilderness of Week 17. For you, we have one final list of waiver defenders who could help fix some last-minute championship flaws.
However, before we get to your final IDP waiver moves for 2020, let’s first remind you that there are at least two teams who could inflict the dreaded “Week 17 Bye” on your fantasy team. By the 'Week 17 Bye', of course, I am referring to the long-established practice of NFL teams resting their starters during the final week of the regular season because they have nothing to gain from winning. This is a time-honored tradition and one of the primary reasons that most fantasy leagues end things in Week 16.
For those of you in the mix this Week 17, two teams pose an obvious risk of resting their starters and screwing your fantasy team. Those two teams are the….
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- Kansas City Chiefs: Coach Andy Reid has already said he will consider sitting his starters this week. We don't know if that means ALL of his starters or just guys playing through injuries like Tyreek Hill, but that sort of announcement demands we pay attention. IDP managers should be aware that these Chiefs could bench or decrease the snaps for several relevant fantasy defenders this week, including: Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Tyrann Mathieu, and Daniel Sorensen.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers technically have something to play for in Week 17, as they and the Bills are still fighting for the second seed in the AFC. That said, the Steelers indicated how little they value a two-seed without a bye attached when they announced Ben Roethlisberger would be resting in Week 17. With Cleveland fighting for playoff positioning and the Steelers starting the uninspiring Mason Rudolph (who threw four interceptions against Cleveland in 2019) at quarterback, don't be surprised if the Steelers take an overly cautious approach with their starters in this one. That may mean IDP starters like T.J. Watt, Avery Williamson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Stephon Tuitt see their day end at halftime.
If you have significant contributors on either of these teams, you should know that your players could see minimal or no playing time in Week 17. This doesn't mean you bench a star like T.J. Watt, but it does mean you should plan for him to miss more plays than he usually would and fade his teammates accordingly.
IDP Settings
If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
Waiver Wire Defenders to Consider in Week 17
1. Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
Rostered in 15.1% of IDP leagues
Again, Curl will stay on this list until he isn't eligible. He is available in nearly 85% of IDP leagues, meaning his roster percentage has actually dropped in the past week, so here he is.
The kid keeps performing and is an easy top-eight fantasy DB for 2020 and beyond, assuming he keeps his starting job in 2021. Even better, his team has something to play for in Week 17, and they are going against a turnover-prone rookie quarterback in Jalen Hurts. He is the rare combination of a widely available DB who is always a top-ten contributor and has a terrific shot to play 100% of snaps in a meaningful Week 17 matchup.
FAAB: Whatever you have left
2. Darnell Savage Jr., DB, Green Bay Packers
Rostered in 3.2% of leagues
Savage's team is playing for the #1 seed in the playoffs, and the Packers always have more reason than most to want that home-field advantage. Given that their primary competition for that top-seed (the Saints) is playing during the same afternoon slate of games, we can bet on the Packers playing their starters for a vast majority of this game. The Packers are also playing a division rival (the Bears) this week, who have their own playoff hopes on the line. Thus, this game should be competitive.
Given Savage’s recent assent and improved nose for the ball lately, he is a decent bet to tip some of Mitchell Trubisky’s passes and perhaps come down with another INT. Consider Savage a reliable replacement if you have a safety that may not play a full slate this week (see Daniel Sorenson).
FAAB: 1%
3. Montez Sweat, DL, Washington Football Team
Rostered in 9.1% of leagues
I know that Sweat often seems like a cheat for this column, but he is currently the 49th most rostered fantasy DL on websites that allow EDGE rushers to have DL eligibility. That means that 48 other defenders eligible as a DL are rostered in more leagues than Sweat. You can still pick him up in more than 90% of IDP leagues.
As I have said with Sweat, the numerous other times I have told you to roster him, he is a terrific talent on a defensive line that keeps him clean of double-teams most weeks. He also has a terrific matchup this week against a Philadelphia Eagles offense that allows them most sacks in the NFL and starts a QB who fumbles the ball twice per start. Expect Sweat to play all game, with Washington still in the hunt, and expect both he and Chase Young to have a good opportunity at a strip-sack. He is a viable option if you’re worried about the playing time of T.J. Watt mucking things up for your championship run.
FAAB: Everything you have (if DL is your primary need)
4. Jarran Reed, DT, Seattle Seahawks
Rostered in 6.7% of leagues
The Seahawks still have some skin in the game, as they could secure the second seed in the playoffs with a victory and a Saints loss. Pete Carroll has also indicated his team will go full force this week regardless of the playoff picture. These are good omens for a team going against their hated division foe, the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers sport one of the worst interior offensive lines in the NFL, even if their tackles are pretty good. They allow pressure up the middle, and they are currently sporting a very average third-string QB whose efficient Week 16 performance should still be considered more a mirage than a sign of things to come. These factors spell a solid matchup for Reed, who is available in 93.3% of IDP leagues. He is an excellent candidate to get a sack this week, and he should play more snaps than other DLs like Chris Jones and Frank Clark.
FAAB: 1%
5. Donovan Wilson, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Rostered in 7.9% of leagues
I've touted the merits of Wilson before. While he can be slightly inconsistent, the second-year pro has been a terrific fantasy option over his past four starts. His team also has a shot at winning their division and should keep playing all of Week 17. That could be particularly appealing if their opponent (the Giants) start a hobbling Daniel Jones, who was turnover-prone even before the injury. Wilson is a reliable DB2 option this week, especially if you need a last-second replacement.
FAAB: Wait
6. Willie Gay Jr., LB, Kansas City Chiefs
Rostered in 2.4% of leagues
This one is more of a high-ceiling play for those feeling risky. As we already stated, the Chiefs are a genuine threat to bench a majority of their starters this week… however, Gay Jr. could be an exception to that decision, as he hasn’t been a regular starter for the team and could use some more seasoning. The talented but troubled rookie saw 40+ defensive snaps in a game for the first time this past week, and the Chiefs could want to see more from him before he sees significant playoff participation.
Gay could be one of the few "starters" for the Chiefs who play all of this week, and if he does, we should expect him to have the floor of an LB3. He is that talented. He is also a very interesting dynasty pick-up for those in relatively deep leagues who are out of things and looking to set up their LB2 position for the long haul with a waiver addition.
FAAB: Wait
7. Matt Milano, LB, Buffalo Bills
Rostered in less than 1% of leagues
Milano saw his roster percentage drop this year, thanks to a mid-season injury and inconsistent play. There are currently 42 linebackers rostered in more leagues than Milano is. Typically that is about where I have Milano, considering his up-and-down nature as a fantasy contributor. However, the Boston College grad has been playing much better of late, and he has a better outlook in Week 17 than some other fantasy LBs.
The Bills still have the second-seed in the playoffs on the line, and they could effectively knock a formidable division foe out of the playoff picture with a win and some help this week. We should expect Milano to play a good deal of his team's snaps in Week 17, and he should be a high-end LB3 as a result.
FAAB: Wait
8. Justin Houston, DL, Indianapolis Colts
Rostered in 2.4% of leagues
The Colts still need to win to have a chance at the playoffs, so we should expect Houston to continue playing his 62% of snaps this week. That is good news because the Colts are going against a Jaguars offense that has allowed 38 sacks this season. The Jaguars are also likely to be without their starting running back in James Robinson, further incentivizing that offense to throw the ball. While you're starting Deforest Buckner and others over Houston, this wily veteran is widely available in IDP leagues and has the kind of matchup that could render you DL3 stats from a waiver wire player.
FAAB: Wait
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