RADIO
Week 17 can sometimes be a strange week, so I am considering pushing "all in" this week with my entire NFL DFS stake. I wouldn't do so if I wasn't confident in my Week 16 GPP DFS Value Plays. But I am.
What is giving me this confidence? It just feels like I'm due. I've had some good weeks this season. But last week was absolutely brutal to me in seasonal FFL and I feel a bounce-back is coming. It's also the timing. There is no Thursday game this week so I've had more time to prepare and research the Sunday slate. Even though NBA DFS has taken some of my focus away, there are no NBA games on Thursday either.
The one thing before dinner I need to do is grill the turkey. So if you will excuse me, I have some giblets to remove. While I take care of that, enjoy my four Week 16 GPP value picks at each of the key positions.
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Week 16 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Andy Dalton vs Eagles (DraftKings $5500, FanDuel $6900)
The first thing I really like about Dalton this week is that I expect the volume to be there. The Cowboys are 1st in total plays per game and the Eagles will likely comply with that pace since they are 5th overall in total plays per game as well. Given this game has an over/under of just about 50 points, I think we should easily expect a few touchdown passes out of Dalton this week.
His numbers don't look exactly jump off the page but since his return from COVID and his concussion. But given that he played three very tough secondaries in Washington, Baltimore, and San Francisco, they're pretty good. He posted at least 15.3 fantasy points in four of his five games since he returned. In addition to posting comparatively decent numbers, this is not a match-up to fear either.
Philadelphia is middle of the pack in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks, but that's weighted by some earlier season success. Only four quarterbacks have averaged less than 7.03 yards per attempt against Philadelphia this season. That list includes the notable arms of Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Ben DiNucci, not exactly a list known for its high accuracy. And every one of those games was in the first half of the season. Philadelphia has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing included), so yeah, I feel pretty good about Dalton as a value play.
Week 16 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Ito Smith at Kansas City (Draftkings $4000, FanDuel $5000)
Again, I'm going to make some presumptions about game-flow, because you might be surprised how much I like this play here. The good news is if I'm wrong, it will only play into Smith having a better day. The Falcons are currently 11-point underdogs, meaning Atlanta will likely be passing more and not running much, right? That's okay, I'm not worried.
Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most PPR points (12.1 per game) to RBs through the air alone this season. According to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Chiefs represent the second plushest matchup this week for pass-catching backs. For those not paying attention, Smith has run 49 routes over the last three weeks, far more than Todd Gurley (30) or Brian Hill (21). A dozen RBs have totaled more than a dozen touches against KC; ten of them have finished as the RB31 or better. The "or better" is obviously the more desired alternative, but at the minimum RB price on DK, that's still a decent play.
Furthermore, we've seen Smith hit a value of 4x earlier this season and that with only a dozen carries and five targets. We know that Raheem Morris has announced that Smith will be his lead RB this week.
Raheem Morris says Todd Gurley’s role has changed. Morris said Ito Smith is the lead runner right now. #Falcons
— Kelsey Conway (@FalconsKelsey) December 21, 2020
Therefore we can expect even more volume for Smith this week. And while Morris might not exactly be Vince Lombardi, I am sure he will be smart enough to try and get Smith more than a dozen carries in order to keep the Kansas City offense off the field.
Week 16 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Donovan Peoples-Jones at New York Jets (DraftKings $3700, FanDuel $4900)
UPDATE: Donovan Peoples-Jones has been placed on the COVID-19 list and will not play.
One of the things I love about writing for RotoBaller is that I am exposed and connected to people who are as smart and frankly often smart then myself. I actually picked up Donovan Peoples-Jones last week as he's been on my radar lately and I knew he had a good FFL playoff schedule. However, my colleague and one of those often smarter people than myself is Frank Amminrante. And when I was considering including DPJ in this space, Frank's tweet made it easy:
If you need salary relief, Donovan Peoples-Jones is a great option this week.
$3700 on DraftKings
$4900 on FanDuelLast 3 games:
61.64% of snaps
246 air yards
28.7% air-yard share
22.4 aDOT
12.7 PPR PPG (WR30)DPJ faces a Jets Defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) December 23, 2020
Done. If you need salary relief, lock him in.
Week 16 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Cole Kmet at Jacksonville (DraftKings $3000, FanDuel $5400)
I love Kelce this week, but he's a little on the costly side. He makes more sense on FD where the TE bargains are not as great. And there are a few. And after Kmet's two target game, his floor might seem too low. Bullocks.
Actually, nix that. Yeah, Kmet is horrible. Spread the word about how miserable he was because I can't wait to grab Kmet at reduced ownership. Kmet played every one of Chicago's snaps last week. Not three-fourths. Not 90%. ALL of them. His snap counts have been rising over the last month and the Bears are looking his way. He only got two targets because Chicago only threw the ball 21 times. Yes, that could happen again. But this matchup is even juicier for Kmet.
Opposing TEs are seeing 2.36 PPR points per target against Jacksonville. That's the most in the league. Jags are also allowing 8.78 yards per target, with only the Jets allowing more. Even more enticing is the touchdown Jacksonville is allowing every 7.5 targets, the most in the league this season. It's not even that Jacksonville is getting burned by the studs they play. Tight ends are scoring 0.42 more PPR points per target against Jacksonville than the rest of their opponents. Eleven different tight ends have notched nearly 50 receiving yards and/or a touchdown when facing Jacksonville.
Plus, I believe the Vikes game was a blip. Kmet was targeted seven times in each of the previous two games. Kmet is one of my favorite value plays on the main slate this week.
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