RADIO
As I created my early 2021 Relief Pitcher rankings, I realized how wide open so many bullpens are right now due to free agency. One team that will surely add a late-inning arm this offseason is the Toronto Blue Jays, as Anthony Bass and Ken Giles are both now free agents. But are they in need of one of the elite names on the market like Brad Hand or Liam Hendriks?
I have two reasons why I do not think so: Jordan Romano and Rafael Dolis. Only four relievers in 2020 owned a ground ball rate over 50%, a strikeout rate over 30%, and a hard-hit rate under 30%, and the Blue Jays roster two of them (Devin Williams and Jake Diekman were the other two).
The exciting duo combined to convert seven of nine save opportunities in the shortened season, and now we'll look at why that success should carry on to 2021.
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Rafael Dolis
2020: 24 IP, 2 W, 5 SV, 1.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Rafael Dolis is quite an interesting story. Prior to 2020, he had not pitched in the MLB since 2013. In 2016 he went to Japan to play for Hanshin where for the next four seasons he was excellent out of the bullpen. Between 2016 and 2019, Dolis threw 265.2 innings with a 2.44 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while striking out 284 batters.
Fast forward to 2020 and Dolis is in yet another country, but back in the MLB. No one really knew what to expect out of Dolis due to his struggles in his early MLB seasons with the Cubs and the tough conversion of success in Japan to major league hitters, but I think it is safe to say he surpassed whatever expectations you might have had.
Dolis threw 24 innings in 2020, third-most in the Toronto bullpen, while racking up two wins, five saves, and 31 strikeouts. It was apparent that opposing hitters had as tough a time scouting Dolis as fantasy analysts did, as he held them to a .188 BAA on his way to a stellar 1.50 ERA. As mentioned in the intro, Dolis possesses a rare ability to keep the ball on the ground, avoid hard contact, and make hitters miss thanks to an impressive four-pitch arsenal. While mainly relying on his Sinker/Slider combo, he also throws a 94 mph four-seam and a nifty splitter for the wrong-handed folk.
Speaking of the southpaws, Dolis held left-handed hitters to a .162 BAA while inducing a 57.9 GB%. The splitter worked like a dream. The only issue was the ability, or more so the confidence, to throw the pitch for strikes. As you see in the FanGraphs heat map below, the splitter basically was a three-outcome pitch: groundball (80 GB%), walk (20.4 BB%), or strikeout (39.7 O-Swing% and 24.7 SwStr%). What else can you do with those locations?
In a bullpen that was quite volatile in fantasy-terms all season, Dolis was Toronto's one constant, and he got better as the season wore on and when the Jays needed him most. Once Romano was shelved due to injury, Dolis secured four saves down the stretch in September, and did not surrender an earned run in his last 16.1 innings.
Jordan Romano
2020 - 14.2 IP, 2 W, 2 SV, 1.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Across a whopping 30 big league innings, Romano has certainly been Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde as the first half were awful and 2020 was fantastic. During last season's breakout, Romano boasted a 2.40 xFIP and like Dolis, flashed that rare groundball (58.1 GB%), soft-contact (25.8 Hard%), high-whiff ability (36.8 K%). Unlike Dolis though, the 27-year-old only needed two pitches to dominate hitters.
In his forgetful 2019 campaign, Romano threw his fastball and slider at a 60%/40% split. In 2020 that split flipped to 40/60, and evidently it was beneficial - along with a 2 MPH uptick in velocity. The stuff was electric, and gave opposing batter fits. His O-Contact% dropped 23 points from 2019, with his overall Contact% dropping 15. He gave up the eighth-lowest contact among all relievers. Pretty damn impressive for a guy that also owns a 58.1 GB%: You can't hit my stuff, but if you do, over half of the time it will be on the ground.
Typically when a pitcher only carries a two-pitch mix, especially fastball/slider, one can expect struggles with the opposite-handed hitters. But Romano mowed down left-handed hitters in 2020. I mean MOWED. Left-handed batters hit .083 with a .157 wOBA against Romano, piling up a 56 K% and a lowly 4 BB%. His 1.10 xFIP vs LHB was ranked right behind Liam Hendriks. Romano's LHB success came from a near-perfect North-South approach with his two pitches, as seen in these two FanGraph heat maps: first FB v LHB location, followed by Slider v LHB location.
Up and away with the cheese, followed by down and away with the filthy slider - which has more vertical movement than you typically see. You think it's another outside-corner fastball and then it disappears into the abyss.
After not allowing an earned run in his first nine innings of 2020, his stellar campaign was cut even shorter due to a middle finger injury that cost him all of September. Prior to the injury he had converted two of three save opportunities.
2021 Season Outlook
Saves are such a fickle stat to try and predict, which makes rankings relief pitchers so difficult - especially in the middle of free agency when every single projection can change at the flip of switch when a new reliever is signed. Toronto's bullpen is definitely no exception. Out of their 17 saves recorded in 2020, only eight were recorded by pitchers still on their roster currently, and one was from Ross Stripling who I expect to be back in the rotation for 2021. That leaves only Romano and Dolis. At the time of Romano's injury, he had seen three save opportunities compared to just one for Dolis. Steamer currently projects Romano with 11 saves, and Dolis with just two. Total number aside, that is a projected 85%/15% saves split. There are three reasons why I think that saves split will be much closer to 50/50 or even favor Dolis in 2021.
First, Dolis will be 33 in 2021 and an UFA in 2022. Romano is still under team control and will be hitting arbitration next season. It would make sense for the team to boost the potential trade-deadline value of Dolis while keeping Romano's arbitration cost down at least to some extent. Of course, as my colleague Big-Pick Nick Mariano argued to me, they already tapped the save spout with Romano in 2020, and once it's tapped the arbitration-cost argument is no longer valid.
Second, Dolis certainly did everything in his power down the stretch in 2020 to earn more ninth-inning appearances in 2021. It was no fault to Romano for suffering an injury, but when he did the team turned to Dolis and he delivered. He was the bullpen's constant reliable force and that should carry some weight heading into this season.
Lastly, despite Romano being an absolute stud and having phenomenal stuff, one has to expect regression when looking at his numbers. A .207 BABIP and 98 LOB% are simply not sustainable, note the 3.12 FIP. But at the same time, he also suffered some bad luck with his HR/FB ratio, note the 2.40 xFIP. Where those two end up meeting in the middle is an unknown, but I can guarantee it will be above the 1.23 ERA we saw in 2020. Dolis is certainly the inferior pitcher talent-wise, but I feel at this point he is the safer option of the two. Considering boring Anthony Bass led the team in saves in 2020, I have a feeling Charlie Montoyo will rely on Dolis for more save opportunities than currently projected.
Regardless of who sees the majority of save ops for the Blue Jays in 2021, I believe Romano will get enough to warrant his current 219 NFBC ADP due to the upside and strikeouts. But barring a Liam Hendriks or Brad Hand signing, or maybe even a Ken Giles reunion, I see a ton of potential ROI with Rafael Dolis at his ADP of 378. Good ratios, decent strikeouts, and a decent save-share? It's like a 33 year old version of Diego Castillo that you can get for free at the end of your drafts. You can be sure that both of these studs will be mentioned in the 2021 version of my Bullpen Method.
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