Connelly Doan analyzes outfielders who performed vastly better or worse in 2020 and projects their 2021 fantasy baseball value based on early ADP.

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season as well as the beginning of Fantasy Baseball Prep season! It may seem like the 2020 fantasy baseball season just ended, but the 2021 season will be here before we know it. Now is as good a time as ever to start thinking about your new draft strategies or potential roster moves for keeper/dynasty leagues.

One of the biggest tasks of off-season research is identifying players who took steps forward in their most recent season and those who took steps back. Further, it is vastly important to not just identify those players, but to understand if the changes in their game are sustainable or repeatable and to what degree. Interpreting how players will perform relative to their ADP is key to winning drafts.

To that end, I will be starting my thinking in the outfield. I will take a look at three outfielders who improved from 2019 to 2020 and three who declined. I will take a look at what changed in their games and whether or not we can expect the same in 2021. Finally, I will look at how their ADP has changed from 2019 to 2020 and assess how reasonable their current ADP's are. With a lot of analysis ahead, let's get going!

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Risers

Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays

2020 ADP: 333; 2021 ADP: 67

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is garnering a lot of fantasy attention this offseason and for good reason. While he did hit 26 home runs with 65 RBI and six steals in 2019, he also had a poor .230/.306/.472 slash line with a 33% strikeout rate. He improved on both his average and power in 2020, compiling a .289/.340/.579 slash line with 16 HR, 34 RBI, six steals, and a 30.4% strikeout rate in under half as many at-bats. Did Hernandez improve enough to warrant his current ADP?

Hernandez's overall 2020 profile remained similar in a number of ways to his career profile; he struck out a lot, stole some bases, and hit the ball hard and in the air. However, a closer look at his batted-ball profile reveals that Hernandez hit the ball exceptionally well, posting career highs in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate while hitting half of his fly balls over 100 MPH. Those velocity stats put him in the top-four percent of baseball, which greatly contributed to his .348 BABIP and, consequently, his batting average. Hernandez's walk rate did decrease from 9.7% to 6.8% and he did chase pitches at a career-high 30.9% clip (which was above league average), but his elite 0.77 HR/PA more than made up for that.

Hernandez has always profiled as a pure power hitter, but he hit the ball at an elite level in 2020 and it benefitted multiple aspects of his game. Given the above-average lineup he hits in and the fact that he has some speed, it would not be unreasonable to mark Hernandez's 2021 ceiling at a .245 batting average with 40 HR, 90 RBI, and 10 steals.

In terms of his value at ADP 67, we can use Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research to compare where it may be best to draft Hernandez. It is expected that a power hitter taken at pick 67 would produce a 0.267 batting average with 31 HR, 90 RBI, and six steals. Hernandez could eclipse the HR mark by a significant amount, exceed steals by a few, and meet RBI, but would be expected to fall short of the needed batting average. Overall, Hernandez may not quite live up to the expected pick 67 production, but, given his ceiling and players going around him, this ADP seems like a reasonable value for him.

Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants

2020 ADP: 316; 2021 ADP: 134

If you haven't been paying attention to Mike Yastrzemski to this point, it's time to change that. 2019 was a feel-good season for the Giants outfielder, as the then 28-year-old posted a .272/.334/.518 slash line with 21 HR, 64 runs scored, and 55 RBI over 411 plate appearances. As indicated by his 2020 ADP, fantasy players were not ready to believe in him. However, Yastrzemski had a strong follow-up season with a .297/.400/.568 slash line, 10 HR, and 35 RBI over 225 plate appearances.

There really isn't much to dissect in terms of Yastrzemski's profile; his game stayed mostly consistent from 2019 to 2020, but fantasy players are only now starting to come around to it. That being said, there were some nice smaller improvements. Yastrzemski's plate discipline improved from 2019 to 2020, benefitting more than just his batting average. He was more selective overall, swinging at fewer pitches both in and out of the strike zone. Consequently, his walk rate increased, his strikeout rate decreased, and he had a higher BABIP. These types of changes are the ones that change a good fantasy hitter to a great one.

There is a lot to like about Yastrzemski heading into 2021. He hits for power in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks, he hits for average, and he has improved his plate discipline. If the Giants' offense performs as well as it did last season, if would be feasible for Yastrzemski to hit .275 with 25 HR and 75 RBI. He may not be the most exciting fantasy player, but he has established a high floor. As such, an ADP of 134 seems perfectly reasonable.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

2020 ADP: 151; 2021 ADP: 89

We already talked about Teoscar Hernandez, but another Blue Jay is moving up the ADP ranks. Lourdes Gurriel had a respectable 2019 season, compiling a .277/.327/.541 slash line with 20 HR and 50 RBI in just 343 plate appearances. He made even greater strides in 2020, posting a .308/.348/.534 slash line with 11 HR and 33 RBI in 224 plate appearances. Will Gurriel be able to provide enough to warrant a top-100 ADP?

The interesting thing here is that Gurriel has been able to put the ball into the seats without a huge uppercut swing. His launch angle actually decreased from 14.4 degrees in 2019 to 10.5 degrees in 2020; however, his HR/FB rate remained virtually the same (20.2% in 2019, 20.4% in 2020) and his HR/PA rate dropped from .058 to .049. Gurriel did hit the ball hard; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the top-20 percent of baseball. That being said, his 91.3-MPH average exit velocity on fly balls and 33.4% of fly balls hit at least 100 MPH were middle of the pack.

While there are a lot of things to like about Gurriel's game (he hits for average, hits the ball hard, and hits in a strong lineup), I worry that an ADP of 89 is taking Gurriel at his potential ceiling. He doesn't walk much at a 5.2% career clip and strikes out a fair amount at a 23.3% career mark. Further, he seems to hit the ball more on a line in general, which, while it is definitely a good thing overall, makes me question how many home runs he can hit in a season. Gurriel could hit .300 with 30 HR and 90 RBI in 2020, but he could also feasibly hit .275 with 25 HR and 75 RBI. Both are solid stat lines, but I would be more comfortable drafting Gurriel in the 110 range in case he does not hit his ceiling.

Fallers

J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

2020 ADP: 22; 2021 ADP: 99

If you saw this 2020 stat line without a name attached to it: .213/.291/.389 slash line, seven HR, 27 RBI: you would never have thought it belonged to J.D. Martinez. But this is not a typo; the fantasy stud who has hit at least .300 with at least 36 HR and 104 RBI over each of the last three seasons put up that stat line in 2020. Consequently, Martinez's ADP has plummeted nearly out of the top 100. What went wrong for the 33-year-old and, more importantly, will it continue to go wrong for him in 2021?

In terms of what specifically went wrong for Martinez, the simple answer is pretty much everything across the board. His 9.3% walk rate dipped below 10% for the first time since 2016, his batting average was the lowest of his career and was much lower than his .290 career mark, and his exit velocities and hard-hit rates, while both in the 63rd percent of baseball, were the lowest of his Statcast career. The real question here is did we just witness the beginning of the end for the 33-year-old veteran or could there be a 2021 bounce back?

One thing to consider is the lack of in-game footage available to players this season. Martinez is a player who has relied on in-game swing adjustments using video throughout his career, so it is certainly possible that the lack of it inhibited his game. Even ignoring that, Martinez has been an outstanding hitter for many seasons, hitting the ball hard and producing top-tier actual and projected statistics. Given the high ceiling he has showcased over the years and the odd season preparation and resources of 2020, I think a bounce-back season from Martinez would be more likely than a meltdown. If he hits .280 with 35 HR and 105 RBI in 2021, he will be an absolute steal at pick 99.

Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

2020 ADP: 86; 2021 ADP: 170

Many fantasy players are aware that Joey Gallo is a bit of an anomaly in that he hits for very low average but extreme power. As such, not every fantasy player is a fan, but 2019 was in many ways a career season for Gallo in the time that he did play. Returning from wrist surgery in 2020, Gallo disappointed greatly, posting a .181/.301/.378 slash line with 10 HR, 26 RBI, and a 35% strikeout rate. Fantasy players in Gallo's corner have always been willing to trade his average for power, until now seemingly. Have fantasy players lost too much faith given his current ADP?

Gallo's game is very much centered around power and HR, so we'll take a close look at his batted-ball profile. In general, Gallo's 91.2-MPH average exit velocity and 43.9% hard-hit rate, while both in the top-25 percent of baseball, were significantly lower than his 2019 value of 94.6 MPH and 52.8%. He also did not square the ball up nearly as often, as his barrel per batted-ball event rate plummeted from 30.4% to 14.7%.

The decreased velocity and lack of solid contact could be due to a swing change. Gallo has always had an uppercut swing (22.6-degree launch angle over Statcast career), but his launch angle jumped significantly to 26.8 degrees in 2020. Hitters generally are trying to hit the ball in the air more now, but Gallo's jump did not help him. His HR/PA dipped from .074 to .044, his average exit velocity on fly balls dropped from 100.7 MPH to 96.3 MPH, and the percent of fly balls  he hit over 100 MPH dropped from 63.3% to 44.8%.

The bottom line for Gallo's fantasy value is that he needs to hit a lot of HR and drive in runs to offset his poor batting average. His .240 BABIP compared to .181 batting average in 2020 suggests that Gallo did get unlucky, but he is still just a .208 career hitter. Gallo has proven that he can hit 40 HR and 90 RBI in a season, but he could also hit 30 HR and 80 RBI if he continues to increase his launch angle. Using Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research, a power hitter at ADP 170 would be expected to bat .250 with 29 HR and 75 RBI; a power hitter at ADP 89 (where Gallo was drafted last season) would be expected to bat .263 with 31 HR and 86 RBI. This one comes down to fantasy player's preferences more than anything else. I think Gallo's upside deserves a higher ADP than 170, but, given his inherent risks, he should not be drafted close to where he went in 2019. Somewhere in the pick 130-140 range seems reasonable considering his variability.

Ramon Laureano, Oakland A's

2020 ADP: 82; 2021 ADP: 142

Over his first two big-league seasons, Ramon Laureano had shown the potential to be a five-category contributor. He compiled a .288/.340/.521 slash line with 24 HR, 67 RBI, 13 steals, a 5.6% walk rate, and a 25.6% strikeout rate in 2019. Fantasy players eagerly drafted Laureano for the 2020 season, but the 26-year-old disappointed, posting a .213/.338/.366 slash line with six HR, 25 RBI, just two steals, a 10.8% walk rate, and a 26.1% strikeout rate. Laureano's ADP has fallen a considerable amount in 2021, but has it fallen too far?

After looking under the hood, Laureano's 2020 was not as bad as it appeared on the surface. He did not hit the ball as hard as he did in 2019, but he barreled the ball almost as often. Further, he actually hit the ball hard in the air more often, which is encouraging. Laureano's plate discipline did improve, as he chased less and consequently walked more. Finally, his .270 BABIP compared to .213 batting average suggests that he did get unlucky on balls put in play.

Laureano had a disappointing 2020 season, but there were some positive takeaways. If he hits .260 with 25 HR, 80 RBI, and low-teens steals, which seems reasonable, then he would overachieve at his current ADP. Given that Mike Yastrzemski is currently being taken at pick 134, I would value Laureano in a similar position with a slightly higher upside given his steal potential. As such, an ADP of 142 seems like solid value for Laureano.

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