NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids

The last play of Week 14 caused six-figure swing at MGM. And that's just what we know, imagine all the swings with bookies across the country because of that safety. The Cleveland Browns continue to lose the biggest games in the most heartbreaking way.

As for Week 14, underdogs went 10-6 against the spread. There were four outright upsets, none bigger than the Eagles beating the Saints as 7.5-point dogs.

Week 15 kicks off with the Chargers at the Raiders on Thursday night. There are even two Saturday games; Bills at Broncos and Panthers at Packers.

Survivor League Week 15

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 14; Rams -17 vs. Jets, Ravens -14 vs. Jaguars, Steelers -13 @ Bengals, Titans -10.5 vs. Lions, Packers -8.5 vs. Panthers, and Colts -7 vs. Texans.

Lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 15

Rams -17 vs. Jets

The Jets are dead. They have no shot in this one. 17 isn't even high enough of a spread. Sean McVay will toy with the Jets Defense. I worry the Rams will experiment while looking ahead to Week 16's major game in Seattle that will decide the NFC West. Even with that, the Rams will pound the run like they did against New England which should be enough.

Rams 38 - Jets 13

Ravens -14 vs. Jaguars

Baltimore is going to win out after their hard-fought win in Cleveland Monday night. They get to beat up on bad teams the last three games; Jaguars, Giants, and Bengals. Jacksonville has fought hard but Tennessee's rushing attack torched them for 249 yards. And that has been a major problem for the Jags all season ranking 30th in rushing yards against per game. In their last three games, they've given up an average of 200 per game. The Ravens will slice them up on the ground.

Ravens 34 - Jaguars 14

Steelers -13 @ Bengals

This is the perfect game for Pittsburgh to get back on track. They've lost two in a row and the sky is falling in Pittsburgh. I really wonder what would've happened Sunday night if Ben Roethlisberger did not throw that pick-six to end the half. The Steelers Defense has been their strongest unit to date and they will stymie a Bengals offense that has scored seven points each of the last two weeks. In three games, Brandon Allen is averaging six yards per attempt, 168 passing yards per game, and has thrown three touchdowns to two interceptions. This offense is non-existent.

Steelers 29 - Bengals 10

Titans -10.5 @ Lions

If Matthew Stafford does not play, the Lions don't stand a chance. Tennessee's offense will do what they want to the Lions Defense and Detroit will have no answer with Chase Daniel.

Titans 35 - Lions 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Packers -8.5 vs. Panthers

I guessed this line would be 10 so what am I missing with this game? The line even opened 9.5 Green Bay and has fallen to 8.5. Green Bay is atop the NFC while Carolina has lost two in a row and are now 4-9 after starting 3-2. The Packers are favored in nearly all the stats I look at so I don't understand how this line is dropping. That's why I like the Panthers and the points.

Packers 27 - Panthers 23

Colts -7 vs Texans

Indy has won two in a row while Houston has lost two in a row. These teams played just two weeks ago. It's really difficult to beat a division foe two times in three weeks. Just ask the Colts; they crushed the Titans in Week 10 and then got blown out by them in Week 12. The Texans have the offense to score with anyone and they'll be able to hang in there and pull off the upset.

Texans 34 - Colts 31

Best Bets for Week 15

• Patriots +2.5 @ Dolphins - I thought this line should've been Miami by seven. But nope, it opened at three and wiseguys have pushed the line down to 2.5 despite the public hitting the Fins. Plus, everyone will look how Miami played against the Chiefs and say, 'this team is so good, they almost beat KC.' And they'll all say, 'New England is awful after their performance against the Rams.' So why did this line open at three?
• Giants +4 vs. Browns - Football is a weird sport that you just can't figure out. This epitomizes it. Cleveland played the game of their lives against the Ravens while the Giants looked hapless against Arizona. No one knows anything.
• Ravens -14 vs. Jaguars - Baltimore will begin to roll and their running game will be dominant.

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2020 season total: 21-21
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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