The Seahawks Offense: Is the Kitchen Closed?

After the first eight weeks of the 2020 season, Russell Wilson was the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football, averaging 30.2 points per game. That pace was actually four points per game ahead of Patrick Mahomes. With 26 TD passes after seven games, he appeared to be well on his way to becoming just the fourth QB to throw for 50 TD passes in a season. He also seemed to be headed to an eventual finish as the No. 1 QB for the second time in his career (347.9 points in 2017), yet with much higher output this time. Wilson looked like a league-winning fantasy QB.

The Seahawks were averaging 34.2 points per game. Wilson was the clear crux of the team as the historically generous defense was making it seemingly essential for him to engage in shootouts, plus Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer were apparently willing to embrace the “Let Russ Cook” approach. Seattle was 6-1 as the team headed into a marquee matchup with the Bills.

Since that game, though, neither Wilson nor the Seattle offense has been quite the same, and fantasy players are concerned about the Seahawks quarterback, one of his top wide receivers and to a lesser, but still significant extent, the No. 1 running back as the fantasy playoffs open. The Seattle offense has gone cold, and needs to be re-heated very quickly.

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Russell’s Regression

Wilson had thrown three interceptions in a Week 7 loss at Arizona, but the turnovers were written off as an aberration when he did not have any picks the following week.  But in a 10-point loss at Buffalo that was not as close as the score indicated, he threw two INTs and also lost two fumbles. The following week, as the Seahawks scored a season-low (at the time) 16 points, he had two more INTs and another fumble as he scored a year-low 9.8 Fantasy points. All of a sudden, the MVP talk was replaced by major concerns that Wilson was becoming unusually turnover-prone.

With the defense improving its play starting with the Rams game, tied heavily to a trade for Carlos Dunlap and the return of a healthy Jamal Adams, the pressure on Wilson to carry the team has seemed to ease off a bit. But his play has been underwhelming over the past three games. Wilson has averaged 16.4 Fantasy points during that span, and was the prime reason for a shocking Week 13 home loss to the Giants. Wilson threw for one TD pass and had two turnovers and scored 15 points in a week where fantasy players needed him to help them clinch playoff berths.

Most turnovers since Week 7:

Russell Wilson: 12
Drew Lock: 11
Jared Goff: 10
Derek Carr: 8
Carson Wentz: 8 pic.twitter.com/KPLIz5CjnN

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) December 7, 2020

Lockett and Carson Concerns

After a historic Week 7 fantasy performance vs. Arizona in which he caught 15 passes for 200 yards and three TDs and scored 53 points, Tyler Lockett was the No. 2 WR in Fantasy Football. It was the second-best fantasy outing by any wide receiver since 2010. You can see where else Lockett ranked among the all-time fantasy greats for his feats against the Cardinals here.

Lockett has dropped off precipitously since that legendary performance, as he has scored more than 12 fantasy points just twice in a six-game span. He has one TD catch and no 70-yard games since Week 7 as he has fallen from the No. 2 fantasy WR overall to No. 8. Consistency has been a major issue for Lockett this year, as he opened 2020 with three 17-point performances but then followed with a pair of sub 10-point games.

Chris Carson is undoubtedly a fantasy RB1 when he is healthy. After the first five weeks of the season, he was the No. 5 RB in fantasy football, averaging 20 points per game. But as experienced fantasy players know, Carson has an unfortunately extensive history of injuries, and a foot issue cost him to miss four games, He has carried 21 times since his return as the Seahawks have eased him back into the mix. Those who roster Carson continue to have concerns about his availability and workload. Carlos Hyde was signed for this season as quality insurance for Carson, but has battled his own injury problems.

Theories on the Seattle Slump

In the Seattle and national media, and among Seahawks fans, there have been many wide-ranging opinions on why the team’s offense has started to sputter in the last four games. They range from the wacky to the very astute. Here are the ones that make the most sense and will be likely addressed before Week 14.

-A lack of offensive balance. Carson’s absence from the offense began one week before the Buffalo game in Week 9 and he has not been utilized heavily in the two games since he returned. The Seattle passing attack was much more explosive in the first five games of the season with Carson as a true threat to defenses. His lack of presence has caused the offense to become more predictable, and play-action passing, which Wilson often thrives on, is much less effective and utilized without a consistently respectable ground game. The play-calling has not been ideal, either. Against the Giants, Wilson had 43 attempts, and the RBs had 20 carries in a game that was never truly out of hand.

-Falling in love with the long ball. The Wilson to DK Metcalf connection has been electric, but Wilson may be looking for it too much and is not taking what defenses give him on higher percentage throws. His strong preference to gun for the big play is leading to highly questionable decisions and spurred five costly sacks against the Giants. Wilson is taking sacks and having his timing thrown off by big hits as he tries to extend plays when he cannot hit on the downfield passes. “We were trying to get the ball down the field more (they) allowed,” Carroll said after the Giants game. “We just needed to adjust and take advantage of what was available to us.”

-Opponent schemes. Giants defensive coordinator drew up a great game plan vs. Wilson, with two safeties playing high and blitzing on early downs. He did an excellent job of disguising coverages. Those approaches led to the issues where Wilson could not make splash plays and was out of sorts more than we have seen him in the past.  “They came in here thinking let’s limit the big plays,” Schottenheimer said. “I probably could’ve adjusted a little bit better and thrown some more of the underneath stuff.”

No wonder Russell Wilson was so rattled.

Look at all the moving pieces on the Giants Defense.

Completely confusing Wilson. pic.twitter.com/lBQv7Wowlc

— Vincent Rapisardi (@VinceRapisardi) December 8, 2020

Offensive line injuries. Only left tackle Duane Brown has managed to consistently stay on the field recently. The Seahawks were down to a fourth-string right tackle at one point vs. New York.

Lockett’s health. He had what Carroll termed as a minor knee sprain heading into Week 11, and there is speculation it may be hindering him, but there have been no reports confirming that it is indeed slowing him down. Metcalf cannot get it done for Wilson on his own, and the QB needs both of his wideouts playing at their better levels to challenge defenses more.

The Seattle Fantasy Playoff Forecast

So can you depend on Wilson, Lockett and Carson to help you win a fantasy championship? Or will the doldrums continue?

The outlook brightens immediately with a Week 14 matchup with the winless Jets, who rank last in the AFC in pass defense and have only 20 sacks. So this week’s game will provide a very good opportunity to correct the issues we have outlined, and Carroll and Schottenheimer will certainly have a game plan to do so.

It will begin with Carson possibly getting more consistent touches, as Carroll has indicated the RB is feeling better and he intends to increase his workload vs. the Jets. He has also become more of a receiving threat this year, as Carson is headed for a career highs in catches (37 last year, 27 already this year) and he has already has a career-best four TD catches while playing in just eight games. Wilson will continue to look his way if he is going to start checking down for flat and shorter passes more. Carson looked good in his more limited touches last week and can invigorate the offense with a larger role starting this week.

The Jets are 23^rd in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to WRs, so this is a good opportunity for Lockett to display his better form again. Getting both of his top WRs going, not just Metcalf, can only help Wilson maintain a more consistent passing flow and keep the offense moving crisply this week. There is no better opponent to exploit for renewed positive momentum. Even if a Jets team hungry for a win manages to stick close for awhile, a determined Seahawks squad may be too much to handle. Shaquill Griffin told reporters that Seattle took the Giants too lightly last week, and the Seahawks may simply be focused on pulling off a rare one-sided victory this week. Most Carroll games are close no matter the opponent, but a decisive win is needed to regains some confidence as a team. Fantasy players cannot overlook the intangible factors here.

Wilson and Carson should be locked into lineups for Week 14. Lockett should definitely be considered as a strong WR2. Wilson and Lockett will need to perform well for fantasy players to have confidence in them in Week 15 vs. Washington (third-ranked pass defense) and Week 16 vs. the Rams (top-ranked pass defense). The early-season version of Wilson is not likely to return, as the defense has played much better in recent weeks and there is no longer a need for him to return to being a passing machine. Yet in the past, he was always a very efficient Fantasy QB in the Top 5 range, and he can certainly re-establish himself as that type of performer for the end of the NFL regular season and fantasy playoffs.

How Wilson and Lockett fare vs. Washington could signal whether they should be started in the all-important Week 16 vs. a Los Angeles team that has always given Wilson fits even in his best seasons. The Rams are the only team that has a winning record vs, Wilson (10-7) and no team has sacked him more (67). The matchups go from friendly to super-tough over a three-week span. It sounds cliché, but take it one week at a time with Wilson and Lockett. Start them for sure this week, and high quality performances would mean strong lineup consideration vs. Washington. If the offense is clicking again by the approach of Week 16, you can look at both players more favorably.

Carson simply needs to stay healthy and get his normal workload again. If he does, start him regardless of matchup. Do keep Hyde rostered as an essential injury insurance player.

It has been awhile since Russ has “Cooked”, but if the Seahawks can rediscover optimum balance and an efficient passing attack, the Seattle offense can remain tasty for your fantasy postseason purposes.

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