RADIO
The fantasy playoffs are here and WR start/sit decisions could decide your season. With 14 weeks of data, the WR/CB Matchup Chart is a tool that can help. However, it is important to understand that the chart is not always predictive. Last week, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett didn't dominate in favorable slot matchups, while Darius Slay and the Eagles were torched by an opposing WR1 for the second consecutive week. Injuries and suspensions have debilitated already-struggling CB groups in Denver and Jacksonville, while the Texans continue to get shredded by WR1s in Houston.
It's important to research late-week injury news and recent trends, but this chart does make a few things abundantly clear. Jaire Alexander is elite, the Rams are tough to pass on, and it's frustrating to be a WR1 against New England.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in most cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 14
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
It's appropriate to start this space with the overall WR1 in Davante Adams. Adams has been unbelievably productive and should keep the good times rolling against the Lions' subpar CBs this week.
Mike Evans has arguably the best matchup in the NFL this week at home against the Vikings. Coming off the bye with Chris Godwin banged up, a vintage Evans TD outburst is not out of the question.Antonio Brown gets an upgrade as well.
Justin Herbert has a great chance at a bounceback week at home against Atlanta's porous pass defense. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have monstrous upside.
Allen Robinson didn't exactly blow up against the Lions in Week 13 but should bounce back in a big way against Houston. Bradley Roby is suspended, which means Vernon Hargreaves is the starting RCB. Hargreaves is one of the most burnable CBs in the league.
D.K. Metcalf got Bradberried last week but has a cake matchup against the Gregg Williams-less New York Jets on Sunday. Jets RCB Lamar Jackson was the victim of the now infamous Henry Ruggs III cover-zero double-move TD and now has to face off with the most physically imposing WR in the NFL in Metcalf. Bryce Hall has been good at LCB for New York, but Metcalf is in a great spot versus Jackson.
Tee Higgins and Corey Davis are two young breakout studs having great years and each has an easy matchup against an obscure overmatched opponent. Higgins will face off with Cowboys' CB Rashard Robinson while Davis will draw the coverage of someone named Luq Barcoo.
Tre'Quan Smith could be worth a dart-throw in super deep leagues against Eagles' CB Avonte Maddox. He scored a TD last week and Taysom Hill is looking more capable as a passer than most expected.
Finally, this could be the week for the Laviska Shenault Jr. breakout game. Mike Vrabel frequently looks visibly disgusted with the performance of his team's defense, and Breon Borders is the weak link in the secondary.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
DeAndre Hopkins produced well in a favorable pass-heavy game script last week against the Rams, but his competition this week is just as tough. Frequently mentioned in this avoid section, Giants' shutdown CB James Bradberry is playing at All-Pro level. Hopkins obviously shouldn't be benched in any leagues, but this is a tough matchup.
Julio Jones is always at risk to leave a game early, and this week has to deal with Chargers' standout CB Michael Davis. Jones is one of the best WRs of this generation and could pop off for an enormous game any week regardless of matchup. However, it is worth noting how good Davis has been at limiting opposing WR1 fantasy points.
DeVante Parker gets a downgrade against probable Pro-Bowler Bashaud Breeland of the Chiefs. On the other side, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson will have to deal with the sticky coverage of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard outside. The Chiefs would be wise to attack Miami slot corner Nik Needham with Tyreek Hill.
Michael Pittman Jr. took a backseat to T.Y. Hilton last week and now has to deal with Trayvon Mullen and the Las Vegas Raiders' elite WR2 defense. Another talented WR2, Sterling Shepard will probably get Daniel Jones back but is not in a great spot opposite Patrick Peterson.
Finally, a slew of fringe fantasy plays who had productive games in Week 13 could revert back to reality with tough matchups this week. They include Cam Sims against the 49ers, Quintez Cephus against the Packers, Russell Gage against the Chargers, and Chad Hansen and Keke Coutee against the Bears. Coutee is startable based on projected volume, but it's worth noting that the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing slot receivers in the league this season.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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