Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 12

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 12. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 12 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 12. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 12 Picks

Kyler Murray - ARI @ NE ($8,200)

I don't feel there's a big need to spend tons of time on Arizona's Kyler Murray, other than to say that the second-year pro is now firmly in "we have to consider rostering him on every slate" territory. Murray's $8.2k price tag leads all QBs, however, he's shown not only a ceiling that justifies the price (two games of 40+ DK Points), but also a floor that is rock solid (only one sub-24 DK Point outing this season). The matchup against New England isn't one we normally want to go out of our way to target, but the Pats allowed Deshaun Watson (a very Murray-like QB btw) to torch them both through the air and on the ground en route to a 34.4 DK Point performance last week.

Justin Herbert - LAC @ BUF ($7,200)

My thoughts on Justin Herbert have continually evolved. After watching very little of him at Oregon I assumed he was a "bust waiting to happen" when the Chargers selected him early in the draft. After he was thrust into the starting role for LA earlier than expected (still can't believe the Chargers doctor punctured Tyrod Taylor's freakin' lung!), I thought he might be able to manage games while LA leaned on the run. Now, after watching Herbert closely for multiple weeks, my thinking is "Wow...this kid is really unbelievable!".

Herbert takes the show on the road to Buffalo this week and will square off against a Bills pass defense that has regressed this year. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most DK Points in the NFL to the QB position this season and are relinquishing 7.58 yards per attempt to opposing QBs - a mark that's 23rd in the league. Herbert has gone over 25 DK Points in five of his nine starts this year and has yet to post a DFS score that you'd be truly disappointed with. He has a tremendous chance to succeed in this week's expected game environment, as the Chargers are six-point underdogs in a game that carries a high 53.5 O/U.

Matt Ryan - LV @ ATL ($5,900) 

It's pretty inarguable that Matt Ryan hasn't consistently looked like Matt Ryan this season. As a result of his spotty play, Ryan's DK price tag has dropped all the way down to $5.9k this week. At this price point it's fair to wonder "How cheap is too cheap?" for the Falcons pivot. While he's undoubtedly underperformed (as has this entire Atlanta football team), the veteran is still averaging 19.5 DK Points per game this season. The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders is enticing...the Raiders rank bottom-10 in the NFL in both DK Points and passing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season. This matchup also carries a tight point spread and the highest O/U (56) on the main slate. We don't necessarily need to pay down at QB this week, but Ryan is a really intriguing positional salary saver.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

I feel as though it goes without saying that Patrick Mahomes is ALWAYS in serious consideration, that's true again this week, even against a tough Bucs defense. In this juicy BUF vs LAC matchup I personally lean Herbert, but Josh Allen is certainly a strong tournament option that I'll also try to grab some exposure to in different stack variations of this game. We'll want to target lots of Vikings this week thanks to their concentrated usage on offense, an interesting stack with Minnesota pieces is Carolina's Teddy Bridgewater. A reader pointed out on Twitter that Matt Ryan won't have Julio Jones (probably), which will hurt him. Yeah...it's not ideal without Julio, but I still maintain that this is a really good spot for Ryan, especially at $5.9k. Keep an eye on Miami's Ryan Fitzpatrick, as Tua Tagovailoa is very QUESTIONABLE with a thumb injury. Fitz would become a great value option in GPPs if Tua can't go.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 12 Picks

Dalvin Cook - CAR @ MIN ($9,500)

Dalvin Cook was highlighted in this article last week and he came through with another virtuoso performance against the Cowboys, posting 29 DK Points on 160 total yards and a TD. As a result of his strong production in recent weeks, Cook's price tag has skyrocketed from the mid-$7k range that we saw for the entire early portion of the season up to his current (massive) $9.5k salary. That asking price is the only reason to consider pumping the brakes on the Vikings RB...where we were betting on monster games earlier in the year, we now need monster games in order for him to justify this price tag. All that said, Cook is once again a tremendous option in Week 12 against a Panthers Defense that ranks bottom-five in the NFL this season in DK Points, rushing yards, rushing TDs, and yards per carry allowed to the RB position. His combination of talent, guaranteed usage, and matchup is ultra elite.

Nick Chubb - CLE @ JAX ($7,100)

I'm not normally a huge fan of rostering Nick Chubb on DraftKings because his pass-catching role basically doesn't exist and we also have to consider Kareem Hunt's usage in this Cleveland offense. However, I'm interested Chubb in this spot against Jacksonville despite those concerns due to his consistent production. Since returning from injury in Week 10, Chubb hasn't really skipped a beat, garnering carry counts of 19 and 20, while eclipsing 100 yards on the ground in both games. The Jags rank 21st in the NFL in Rush DVOA and have allowed the sixth-most DK Points in the league to the RB position. Despite his non-existent role in the pass game, Chubb is an explosive runner that's averaging a massive 6.0 yards per carry, the highest mark in the NFL among RBs with over 50 attempts.

Todd Gurley II - LV @ ATL ($5,500)

Injury Update: Gurley has been ruled OUT. ATL's Brian Hill is $4k and a viable value option at the RB position. 

We mentioned Atlanta QB Matt Ryan earlier in the article and Todd Gurley is another Falcon whose price tag has dramatically decreased over the last few weeks. Gurley comes into Week 12 with a season-low salary of $5.5k. He did next to nothing on just nine touches against a tough Saints Defense last week, but in Atlanta's four prior games Gurley saw touch totals of: 21/18/25/23. I look for his usage to go back up this week against a Raiders defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in Rush DVOA and has allowed the second-most rushing TDs in the league (12).

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

For all the reasons I originally loved Todd Gurley, I love Brian Hill. As a bonus, we can grab Hill at just $4k. With everyone on Dalvin Cook (as they should be), a really interesting pivot in GPPs is swinging over to Carolina's Mike Davis, a player that basically nobody is talking about that has guaranteed volume against a Minny defense that's allowing 122 rushing yards per game. Outside of Brian Hill, my favorite salary saver at RB is NY's Wayne Gallman Jr. Gallman has worked himself into the top spot in the Giants backfield thanks to solid production and injuries. He draws a smash spot against the Bengals and I like the idea of pairing him with the NYG D/ST.

SATURDAY UPDATE 2.0: 

Wow...this week just continues to be wild! Indy's Jonathan Taylor has now been ruled OUT due to COVID-19 protocols. This pole-vaults Colts RB Nyheim Hines to the top of the value-play charts at $4.6k. Hines is a pass-catching threat and already ran for 70 yards on 12 carries against this Titans Defense in a Week 10 matchup. If you want to dive even deeper in GPPs, Indy's Jordan Wilkins will almost certainly get some work at just $4k, though exactly how the backfield touches will be split is a guessing game. Hines is unquestionably the safer play and more likely to lead the way for Indy.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 12 Picks

Keenan Allen - LAC @ BUF ($8,000) 

I've always viewed Keenan Allen as a "nice DFS player with limited upside". My perception of him continues to be smashed with rookie Justin Herbert now at the helm of this LA offense. Allen's yardage and TD numbers have spiked with Herbert at QB. His 145 receiving yard performance last week marked the third time in LA's last five games that he's went over the century mark and it also was his fourth-straight game with a TD. Allen's volume has always been his calling card and that trademark usage has stayed sky-high this season. He was targeted a ridiculous 19 times in Week 11. Allen leads the NFL in total targets (112) and average targets per game (11.2). He'll likely see coverage from Buffalo's slot corner Taron Johnson for a large portion of this game. The Bills have struggled against capable slot receivers, allowing New York's Jamison Crowder to post 27.5 DK Points and LA's Cooper Kupp to go for 28.7 DK Points.

Tyreek Hill - KC @ TB ($7,800)

It feels kinda weird to recommend both Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill in the same article, as they are polar opposites in many ways, especially in the way that we perceive them. While we view Allen as an often low-impact, volume-driven receiver, our viewpoint on Hill is completely on the other end of the spectrum...an explosive, splash receiver whose usage comes with volatility and brings a very low floor into play. While both descriptions are at least a little bit true for each player, we might need to change our view of Hill (as with Allen).

The Chiefs have been content to feed The Cheetah as of late. He heads into this matchup against Tampa Bay off back-to-back games of over 100 receiving yards. What's most surprising is the volume that Hill's seen in those games, as he's been targeted a MASSIVE 22 times in KC's last two. To stick with the "perception" theme, we can grab a high-upside player at depressed ownership thanks to a "perceived" tough matchup against a rugged Bucs defense. Obviously, it's not a cakewalk spot, but the matchup against Tampa Bay's Sean Murphy-Bunting is undoubtedly a winnable one for Hill and his ultra-elite aDOT of 13.2.

Antonio Brown - KC @ TB ($5,700)

Let's leave the off-the-field stuff for a different conversation. Focusing strictly on football, I think we can all agree that not too long ago, Antonio Brown, was one of the best receivers in the game. He's now working his way back into the NFL on this veteran Tampa Bay squad and it appears the Bucs didn't just bring him in for the fun of it, as AB has seen escalating volume in each of his three games for the team. Brown was targeted 13 times Monday night against the Rams, catching eight balls for 57 yards. The Chiefs have been sound in pass defense this season, but it's the expected game environment that intrigues me more than the matchup, as this game carries a tight point spread (KC -3.5) and is tied for the highest O/U (56) on the slate. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Bucs forced to pass in this one and Brown is quickly becoming Tom Brady's favorite target. These factors equal nice upside at this $5.7k price tag.

SATURDAY UPDATE:

Man...so many options at WR. A couple of big injury notes at the position...Minnesota's Adam Thielen is expected to miss Week 12 with COVID issues, so we can expect rookie sensation Justin Jefferson to be the man for the Vikings. Buffalo's John Brown has been ruled OUT, which bumps up both Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, while also opening the door for Gabriel Davis, who is priced at the DK min of $3k. Julio Jones didn't practice Friday and is listed as QUESTIONABLE. If he can't go, Calvin Ridley would vault into "elite play" territory, with Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus becoming intriguing value options...while Raiders WR Nelson Agholor is a nice stacking partner with Falcons pieces.  Larry Fitzgerald has been ruled OUT, which opens the door for Andy Isabella to see some slot work at just $3k. Taysom Hill peppered Michael Thomas with 12 targets last week and we can expect him to continue using Thomas as a safety blanket. Carolina's explosive trio of DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel are tempting "runback" options in Minnesota game stacks. The Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack is undoubtedly risky, but the receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, with just Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault still standing. Sam Darnold returns to the Jets lineup this week, which could be a huge bump to Jamison Crowder...I'd become very interested in Miami's DeVante Parker if Ryan Fitzpatrick were to start for the Dolphins. Everyone couldn't wait to roster Jakobi Meyers last week, but I'm hearing very little chatter about him this week in a unique bounce-back spot against Arizona.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 12 Picks

Darren Waller - LV @ ATL ($6,000)

Travis Kelce is always in a league by himself when he's on the Main Slate, but if you can't come up with the $7k needed for him, you can save $1k by sliding down to Darren Waller. Waller's matchup is actually much better than Kelce's, as he'll take on an Atlanta defense that's been routinely destroyed by opposing TEs. The Falcons ranks dead last in the NFL in DK Points, TDs, and catch-rate percentage allowed to the position. A tight end in name only, Waller is the true alpha of this Raiders receiving corps and he's been targeted a staggering 86 times this season, which trails only Kelce in targets for a TE.

Irv Smith Jr. - CAR @ MIN ($3,100)

Injury Update: Irv Smith is now DOUBTFUL for Week 12. Minnesota veteran Kyle Rudolph will get the start and majority of pass work at $2.8k. 

If you need to go to the other end of the TE spectrum and pay all the way down, Minnesota's Irv Smith Jr. is well worth a dart throw at just $3.1k. Some expected a little more from the athletic Smith this season, but this run-heavy Vikings offense has proven to be a tough situation in which to find volume. Our interest in him this week revolves around the expected absence of Adam Thielen, who was placed on the COVID list earlier this week. Smith has shown that he doesn't need tons of targets to be effective, as he's posted three double-digit DK Point outings this season on target counts of just 5, 5, and 4. Yeah...it's a little thin, but welcome to the TE position in 2020.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

My line of thinking at the TE position as of Saturday morning is basically "Pay all the way up for Kelce/Waller or completely punt with Kyle Rudolph at $2.8k". This might be a bit extreme for some of you with a more conservative style of play, but it's where I find myself. If you are looking for mid-priced TE, LA's Hunter Henry sticks out thanks to his steady volume and the potential game environment against Buffalo. NY's Evan Engram gets a great matchup against the Bengals and his athleticism brings the possibility of a big fantasy day.

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