RADIO
We are now in the final stretch of the fantasy season. With just a few weeks left, fantasy managers need to everything they can to make a push for the playoffs. Knowing the warning signals can prevent fantasy managers from hold an empty bad at the end of the season.
Sometimes a player’s situation can change for the worst, limiting the player’s ability to produce fantasy points for our lineups. All it takes is a different starting quarterback for the distribution of targets to change in the passing offense. Injuries to the offensive line can hurt a running back’s ability to churn out yards on the ground.
Week 11 was no different from any other week. There were players who underperformed who are making fantasy managers nervous as we wind down the season. We also saw a few quarterback changes that could affect the entire outlook for everyone on the team.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz had another bad performance in Week 11. He leads the league with 14 interceptions which includes the two he tossed on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. It is quite apparent that his erratic play stems from his inability to process the play in real-time. This leads to him making poor decisions and inaccurate pass attempts.
As of now, Wentz will remain the starter going into Week 12. The media is starting to question whether he should be the teams starting quarterback. We are going to see a big push for Jalen Hurts if he doesn’t improve soon.
He has been shaky all season. The Eagles’ offense has experienced a large sum of injuries with Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, Dallas Geodert, and Jalen Reagor missing some time throughout the season. However, that doesn’t explain the poor decision Wentz has displayed. There’s a chance he could be watching from the sidelines if he continues to toss interceptions and miss open wide receivers.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
It was Taysom Hill time on Sunday. There was some speculation as to what the offense would look like with him under center. Michael Thomas was targeted 12 times while also seeing 75 percent of the air yards. We saw Kamara’s usage in the passing game decrease to just one target with Hill under center.
This is very concerning since a large portion of Kamara’s fantasy value is dependent on his usage in the passing game. Typically, run-first quarterbacks are more likely to ignore the running back as a check-down option because they are capable of scrambling for the extra yardage. The targets Kamara receives in the flat are opportunities for him to get the ball in space which fuels his ability to bust-out long runs.
Even though he was able to rush for 45 yards and one touchdown, the lack of receiving production could hurt Kamara’s fantasy production down the stretch. This is a one-game sample, and things could turn around as soon as next week. As of now, we have to worry about Hill’s willingness to check it down to Kamara.
Wide Receiver
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
With Andy Dalton back under center, Gallup reeled in two of his five targets for 29 yards. He had a 16 percent target share and accumulated 58 air yards against the Minnesota Vikings. There is too much competition for targets in the offense for him to maintain consistent production. He also had a drop in this game which increases his total to 21 on his career and five for the season.
Gallup still saw 29 percent of the team’s air yards, suggesting that he is still getting enough volume from deep pass attempts to become fantasy relevant on any given week. It’s going to be hard to pin-point the breakout games, but fantasy managers should limit their expectations since Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are siphoning a large share of the workload.
Since 23.6 percent of his targets go for 20 yards or more, Gallup does have the potential to blow up the box score on any given Sunday. All he needs to do is reel in one or two deep passes for him to provide what we need for fantasy. Keep in mind, it's a gamble because those are higher acuity targets that are harder to convert.
Tight End
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Doyle was targeted twice in the Colts’ 34-31 win over the Packers. Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox split seven targets, stealing some workload from Doyle. With T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman being key contributors in the passing game, Doyle becomes a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset. There’s just not enough targets to go around in the offense to make Doyle a consistent fantasy contributor.
Most fantasy managers were not leaning on Doyle anyway. The tight end position is very volatile which means there are warning signals for every single tight end not named Travis Kelce. Doyle's case is extra sensitive since there isn't a clear path to a steady workload. He's best left on the waiver wire.
Breakout Alert!
Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders
After multiple years of disappointment, Agholor is finally putting it together. Against the Chiefs in Week 11, he caught six passes for 88 yards and one touchdown. He owned a 31 percent share of the target while seeing 141 air yards. This was his first WR1 season of the year and it looks like he’s going to finish the 2020 season as a major focal point of the offense.
With the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and the Indianapolis Colts on the docket for the Raiders’ next three games, Agholor could be a major breakout candidate down the stretch. Fantasy managers need to think about inserting him in their lineups just in case he has another big game.
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