RADIO
As we enter Week 10, injuries and changes in coaching tendencies are beginning to affect the CB Matchup Chart. Trends within recent weeks are becoming just as important to understand as the full-season data.
For example, Buffalo was shredded by slot receivers for the first seven weeks of the season but has been much tougher the past three weeks, holding opposing slots to just 8, 2.3, and 7.5 fantasy points. Tennessee had also been exposed by slots early in the year but has since traded for Desmond King, who limited Anthony Miller to 59 yards and a fumble in a game where Nick Foles attempted 52 passes last Sunday. Injuries have also impacted the chart. Stephon Gilmore missed last week's game against the Jets, allowing Breshad Perriman to put up over 100 yards and two touchdowns against his replacement.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in most cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 10
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Jerry Jeudy is listed as the primary slot on the chart, but the Broncos' receivers move around the formation to exploit matchups. Simply put, no Raider defensive back can cover Jeudy. Start him with confidence.
Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye were both out in Week 9, which allowed the Falcons WRs to feast on an undermanned secondary. Callahan has been one of the best cover men in the league this season. If he plays this week, expect him to play on the outside against heavy sets and move to the slot against 11 personnel. He could line up against any Raiders WR, but with Bouye expected to be back, I would expect to see him mostly on Hunter Renfrow. The Broncos have not done a good job against WR1s, so Agholor or Ruggs could take advantage of Michael Ojemudia.
Allen Robinson has a dream spot against the Vikings' outside corners on Monday night. Darnell Mooney has been trending up for a few weeks and also has a soft matchup. Anthony Miller, however, will have to deal with the improving Jeff Gladney, who has done a good job against slots in recent weeks.
Keep an eye on the Seahawks' injury report. If Shaquill Griffin is out again, Robert Woods becomes one of the top plays of the week. Regardless of Griffin’s status, Josh Reynolds and Cooper Kupp both have easy matchups against Seattle’s historically bad pass defense.
The Saints move their receivers all around the formation, but it would make sense to exploit the burnable Emmanuel Moseley with Michael Thomas. Jason Verrett is a star, and the slot defenders for San Francisco have been very good, so attacking Moseley will likely be a big part of the gameplan for Sean Payton. Thomas’ skill set makes him the logical beneficiary.
While Darius Slayton will have to deal with Darius Slay again, Sterling Shepard gets the easiest WR2 matchup in the league versus Avonte Maddox. In that same game, Greg Ward gets Darnay Holmes in the slot who has been subpar as a rookie.
In Miami, Keenan Allen should have no problem continuing his run of dominance against the overmatched Nik Needham. Randall Cobb and Cole Beasley also have good on-paper matchups against the Browns and Cardinals, respectively.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Avoid is a relative term in this article. Some receivers have proven to be matchup proof, but I think it’s important to still make people aware of difficult matchups for DFS or shallow league purposes. You aren’t sitting Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown, or D.K. Metcalf in season-long leagues, but all four face tough competition this week. Similarly, Davante Adams has been unbelievable since coming back from injury but faces one of the lesser-known top cover men of 2020 in Sidney Jones. Jones slowing down Adams would be a major upset, but he should be at least slightly more effective than the subpar corners Adams has toyed with in recent weeks.
Tre’Davious White technically gave up a big game to D.K. Metcalf last week, but the Seahawks moved him into the slot more than usual. DeAndre Hopkins plays almost exclusively LWR, and White is most effective lined up at RCB. The Bills-Cardinals game has a 56.5 total, but Hopkins is not in the greatest rebound spot in the world.
The Fuller brothers have been great for their respective teams in Chicago and Washington this season. Kendall will cover the Lions' Marvin Jones Jr. and Kyle will match up against the Vikings' Justin Jefferson this week. Both receivers get downgrades.
Corn Elder in Carolina and Chandon Sullivan in Green Bay have been two of the lesser-known stud slot corners this season. This week, Elder matches up with Chris Godwin and Sullivan takes on Keelan Cole. Both get downgrades.
Finally, the volatile Tyler Lockett has the toughest slot matchup in the NFL against Troy Hill and the Rams. Lockett always has a chance to pop off and doesn’t play exclusively slot, especially when he runs deep routes on play-action passes. The problem is that all three Rams corners are tough to deal with. With Russell Wilson under center and a 54.5 total, Lockett is not a bad play despite the tough matchup.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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