PGA Betting Advice - The Masters

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-40-8), netting nearly 44 units of profit and almost a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Matthew Wolff -110 over Tommy Fleetwood

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I am committing a couple of faux pas here with my Matthew Wolff selection over Tommy Fleetwood. For starters, ew... I don't like recommending Wolff in any situation, but more importantly, we are going down the dreaded path of choosing a young player who has shown some issues with his short game in the past. These green complexes are complicated and take some getting used to before mastering the property, but it is hard for me to ignore Fleetwood, who hasn't shown himself to be the same player as years past. The Englishman has lost strokes with his irons in his last six tournaments, and he is fresh off of a 59th-place finish at the CJ Cup that resulted in him losing 6.9 shots off the tee.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

All of my betting articles this week are monotonous with my stance. Not only have we been given a more efficient board worth of matchups, but it isn't always easy to find consistent situations across the board. I've seen wild variations in pricing, and it is one of the reasons I have been recommending fading Tiger Woods if the math doesn't make sense at one of your sites. That doesn't necessarily help us here on our Wolff over Fleetwood play, but these markets are generally more systematic than a typical week. With the American making his second appearance at Augusta (first as a pro), it does hurt this wager somewhat, but I still have this properly priced at -135.

*** For the sake of transparency, this would technically have been my premium wager if one were listed for the week. Not every book has the same matchups/prices, and it is difficult to condense a scattered market into a concrete option that all have at their disposal. If you are going to make just one wager, this would be the one I would advise. 

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

Francesco Molinari +133 over Shane Lowry

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We get one of two options here of how we want to oppose Shane Lowry. The steadier path for success would be to lay the small vig on Jason Kokrak over the Irishman, but I will get a little greedy and trust my numbers behind Francesco Molinari. I realize the Italian appeared to have become broken for almost a year after faltering down the stretch during last year's Masters, but a 15th-place showing at the Houston Open was enough for me to feel optimistic about his chances to put his demons behind him this year. Molinari has posted three straight top-33 results at Augusta, which is a vast advantage from what we have seen with Lowry making the cut once in four tries.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

In fairness, Molinari is technically better suited as an outright or top-20 wager because of his volatility. I don't usually take on this level of missed cut potential in my wagers, but it is hard to bypass my math that has the Italian as a small favorite. That edge is good enough for me to dabble for 0.75 units, but I wouldn't blame anyone if they decided to oppose Lowry with Kokrak instead.

0.75 Units to Win 1.00

Sebastian Munoz -102 over Billy Horschel

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We have gotten some built-in edges because of experience here at Augusta. Bookmakers have shaded some of their pricing towards the more seasoned veteran in these particular matchups, and while I do agree with the concept that Sebastian Munoz could fair better at the property in the future, it doesn't mean we still can't get a robust result out of him. In my opinion, Munoz is a threat to land inside the top-20, and I believe that will be good enough to best Billy Horschel in a head-to-head battle. My math has Munoz closer to -122.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

From a young player in Matthew Wolff to a true first-timer in Sebastian Munoz, we shouldn't be expecting all sunshine and roses behind some of these head-to-head matchups. Munoz has only made one of four cuts during his short major championship career, and he has yet to crack the top-50. I believe a lot of that should be ignored since we are getting a version of him that has made his last nine cuts on tour, but you never know how a younger player will react to the pressure.

1.02 Units to Win 1.00

Free Top-20

Charl Schwartzel 5/1 (0.20 Units to Win 1.00)
J.T. Poston 6.5 (0.16 Units to Win 1.04)
Sebastian Munoz 4/1 (0.25 Units to Win 1.00)
Francesco Molinari 3/1 (0.33 Units to Win 0.99)

Top Debutant

J.T. Poston 35/1 (0.08 Units to Win 2.80)
Abraham Ancer  (14/1 (0.20 Units to Win 2.80)
Sebastian Munoz 17/1 (0.17 Units to Win 2.89)

It is a strong debutant class that features Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im, but it is tough to pinpoint much value at the top of the board. Morikawa at 4/1 is vastly overpriced for my liking, and I can't quite bite into any of the other sub-10/1 players for numerous reasons. We are probably going to need an outlier top-10 performance if we want to have a shot at this wager having a chance, and there are only three golfers that mathematically are grading out as value at their going rate. Poston is more of a shot in the dark, but I do have Ancer and Munoz targeted as top-five options in this market that you can find at deeper odds.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)

2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

26-23-0 (+5.49 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Featured Sportsbook Promo Offers

All new sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Check out all of the sportsbooks and their bonus offers: