PGA DFS Vegas Report - The Masters

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas golf betting lines to find the best PGA DFS sleepers for the Masters. His top under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks are included.

There will be some changes this week for how I typically layout my Vegas Report. Major championships are incredibly challenging to recommend from a handicapping perspective because cards are built throughout the entire year, which leaves us in a precarious position on how to handicap the event from a suggestion standpoint.

Releasing old plays won't help anyone since numbers have shifted throughout the year, although it is one of the many reasons why I always try to have everyone check back in on my betting spreadsheet to find new wagers as they emerge. These selections have been tweeted about or mentioned leading up to the week, but it obviously won't do a new reader any good to stumble upon a Bryson DeChambeau bet at 28/1 and not be able to match it. I will do my best to traverse through the week by pointing out what I do have locked in for the Masters, but this article will take a different form than usual.

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Masters - PGA DFS Overview

Augusta National

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

Ah, yes. Magnolia Lane, Amen Corner, the green jacket and Augusta National - 'a tradition unlike any other.' But that tradition will get tested in 2020 after a stoppage earlier in the season resulted in the event being pushed back from April to the middle of November. The million-dollar question now becomes: Are there any differences that should be expected with the colder weather? And does the time of the year modify anything about the layout as a whole?

It is difficult to provide an answer without personal bias and interpretation of the situation, but I do believe distance of the tee will become even more pronounced for the week. Fairways are typically broad and feature non-existent rough, and that combination becomes amplified when you consider that par-five scoring is where golfers can do the majority of their damage.

Massive undulations in the greens have been known to wreak havoc for those who are not accustomed to the property, and it is one of the reasons why a first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Short games are going to be tested both on and around the putting surface, and being able to avoid three-putts will be just as important as being able to get your ball up-and-down from an awkward lie. The Masters is known to test you from tee-to-green, and the player that brings their best A-game for the week should be the one that walks out of Augusta as the final major winner of 2020.

Key Stats

• Driving Distance 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
• Three-Putt Percentage 17.5%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
• Strokes Gained off the Tee 15%
• Par-Four Average + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%

What Wagers Do We Have Heading Into The Week?

• Jon Rahm (11/1)
• Bryson DeChambeau (28/1)
• Patrick Cantlay (50/1)
• Webb Simpson (60/1)
• Jason Day (60/1)

Outside of the Jon Rahm 11/1 suggestion, everything listed here is long gone. My math has made the Spaniard the favorite to win the event, and I have proper value being 8/1 on the 25-year-old. Those looking to take someone near the top of the board and hoping to have a ticket that has a chance going into the weekend might want to consider Rahm at his current price.

Unfortunately, the math gets trickier to work around for the rest of our golfers. Here is what I have as being a proper going rate for the other four plays:

• Bryson DeChambeau (10/1) - currently (8/1)
• Webb Simpson (30/1) - currently (30/1)
• Jason Day (33/1) - currently (35/1)
• Patrick Cantlay (26.5/1) - currently (25/1)

The one positive thing to note is that nothing is that far off. Only Day shows any long-term value at his number, but everyone is within the margin of error if you make a couple of small tweaks. Sadly, building an outright card today from the five names listed isn't a viable option because our exposure will add up too quickly, not to mention that I am not a proponent of grabbing poor equity wagers. I don't have any massive gripes with anyone that wants to cherrypick a selection or two at their current number, but the value has been sucked out of most of these plays.

The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta? 

The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday. There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.

1.Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, 2 months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool:

Sandy Lyle, Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood

2. Player's Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates:

James Sugrue, Andy Ogletree, Lukas Michel, Abel Gallegos, Yuxin Lin, John Augenstein, Jazz Janewattanond, Shugo Imahira, Victor Perez, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, Tyler Duncan, C.T. Pan, Sung Kang, Andrew Landry, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nick Taylor, Matt Wallace, Nate Lashley, Justin Harding, Dylan Frittelli, Max Homa, Erik Van Rooyen, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Collin Morikawa, Lanto Griffin, Cameron Champ, Jason Kokrak, Matthew Wolff, Abraham Ancer, Sebastian Munoz, Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler.

3. Golfer's Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if you can't crack the top-50 names in a 90-person field.

Matt Kuchar, Chez Reavie, Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Ian Poulter, Kevin Na, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Mark Leishman, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Bernd Wiesberger

4. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Greens - There are too many spots for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters.

Paul Casey, Lucas Glover, Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland, Danny Willet, Bubba Watson, Jimmy Walker, Justin Rose

5. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the greens. Mistakes can add up quickly.

Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Charles Howell III. 

6. Player's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates:

Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott and Billy Horschel 

7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during the Last Three Years - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Tyrrell Hatton from the mix.

Who Is Left Standing?

'Spencer's News Desk' projects that one of these 14 golfers will walk out of Augusta victorious. I would advise working my builds on both DFS contests and outright wagers around this group.

Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler. 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)

2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

26-23-0 (+5.49 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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