NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids

It finally happened. Underdogs finally came through with some outright upsets in Week 8. We've had some small-ish upsets here and there but not many touchdown underdogs winning in the same week.

Underdogs went 10-4 against the spread with seven outright upsets. The biggest was the Bengals beating the Titans as seven-point underdogs. Another one was the Vikings upsetting the Packers as six-point underdogs. I gave both of those out as my avoids. I also picked the Cowboys over the Eagles which was a lot closer than expected. The score would say differently but the Cowboys were right there for most of the game. My two recommendations, Chiefs and Bucs, both won. The Bucs just got by though.

Week 9 kicks off with a rematch of the NFC Championship; Packers at the 49ers. The Bengals, Browns, Eagles, and Rams are all on bye.

Survivor League Week 9

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 9; Steelers -13.5 @ Cowboys, Chiefs -10.5 vs. Panthers, Patriots -7 @ Jets, Texans -7 @ Jaguars.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I also give out my three top plays against the spread. I'm 5-1 the past two weeks. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 9

Steelers -13.5 @ Cowboys

Andy Dalton has been ruled out for this game. That means we get to see another start from Ben DiNucci. But this time he gets to face the fifth-ranked defense in total yards against, and most sacks per game with upwards of four. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most sacks in the league. If you think Ezekiel Elliot can maybe get something going, well the Steelers are fifth in opponent rushing yards per game.

Pittsburgh could have a letdown here after back-to-back enormous road wins in Tennessee and Baltimore. But they should have no problem winning with their B game.

Steelers 30 - Cowboys 13

Chiefs -10.5 vs. Panthers

Another team that should have no problem winning Sunday. After their home loss to Oakland in Week 5, Kansas City has not taken any opponent lightly. They didn't let up against Broncos and Jets in the past two weeks. This is the best offense I believe since the 2000 Rams. They rank third in converting third down's and they should have no problem Sunday against the 31st third down defense.

Carolina has a good offense themselves ranking eighth in yards per play. Christian McCaffrey could return this week which would obviously be a big boost, but not enough to keep up with the Chiefs offense.

Chiefs 38 - Panthers 21

Patriots -7 @ Jets

This will be the first and last time you'll be be able to pick New England in survivor. Cam Newton has reverted to what he's looked like the past two years in Carolina; off target, a dead arm, and simply a runner. But none of that will matter come Monday night because they take on the hapless Jets. New York's defense ranks 26th in yards per play. They also have no pass rush, ranking 27th in sacks per game.

New England's defense is average, but their rushing defense ranks 27th. It's really remarkable how the Jets offense ranks dead last in yards per play, third down conversion's, and touchdowns in the red zone. As bad as the Patriots have looked in recent weeks, this line being seven on the road says it all.

Patriots 23 - Jets 14

Texans -7 @ Jaguars

One of my favorite trends comes into play here; road favorite off a bye. That trend has been hitting at about 70 percent since 2002, and it's even better when the road favorite has a losing record. The Jaguars will be starting Jake Luton, a sixth-round rookie out of Oregon State. I'm a big college football fan and I never once heard of him.

The Jags defense is 31st in opponent yards per play and give up tons and tons of points. They've allowed 30 or more points in every game since Week 1. One of those teams was the Texans in Week 5. Deshaun Watson should have a field day.

Texans 36 - Jaguars 17

Falcons -4 vs. Broncos

The Broncos are one of the five worst teams in football. Their defense is alright but their offense is putrid. Drew Lock is inaccurate, has thrown five interceptions in five games, and has a bad 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons Defense has given up the most yards per play in the league but I don't even think the Broncos can expose them.

There's too much talent on the Falcons for this team to be 2-6. They had a nice win last Thursday night in Carolina and maybe this time will knock off a few wins against bad competition like the Broncos. Atlanta's offense can be dynamic, especially at home.

Falcons 30 - Broncos 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Titans -5.5 @ Bears

Tennessee will either blow Chicago out or will lose by a field goal. Chicago's offense has not scored more than 23 points since Week 3. They will need to score more than that because the Titans average 29.7 points per game, sixth in the NFL. I don't trust this Titans Defense though and I love Chicago's.

Titans 23 - Bears 21

Best Bets for Week 9

• Texans -7 @ Jaguars
• Falcons -4 vs. Broncos
• Lions +4 @ Vikings - Take out last week's results and this line should be three.

Running Totals

• Last week: 3-0
• 2020 season total: 14-10
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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