RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Group C promised us plenty of mayhem, but in the end, I went 6-0 on predictions!
Gen G bogged down a bit and didn't put up the points I needed even on a 3-0 day. Not bad for a group I had serious questions about, and now watch on a group that makes sense; I'm sure today will see the curveballs I was looking for yesterday. The final day of groups is upon us, and then we're on to the knockout bracket, best of fives, and two-day dfs slates.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Sunday, October 11th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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TES (LPL) -1200 vs UOL; -1400 vs. Flyquest; -230 vs. DRX
JDG went through its group in the most LPL way possible, standing up to DWG buy splitting with them, but then not earning a tiebreaker by losing to PSG Talon. Now the summer LPL champions must answer the call to try to set up another LPL autumn final. We saw that this group is very clear cut with TES being head and shoulders above everyone else in the opening week.
We won't fall for any play-in nonsense TES will shred the Unicorns in their first game of the day. Nomanz is the strength of UOL, but he's not getting over on Knight. 369 smurfed on Boss and AHaHaCik in the top lane, and of course, Jackey was a monster in bot lane. TES are too strong in every lane for UOL to match with jungle presence and map plays.
Flyquest looked game in their first matchup with TES, and they kept the game close picking up some mid-game fights and making TES work for it. This time around, we'll get TES on the blue side and FLY on red. I believe that TES again will be too much in lane for the NA side to handle, and only POE again will be able to withstand the onslaught from TES. Jackey and 369 will drill Turtle and Solo, and I don't think Santorin will be able to provide enough relief with Karsa shadowing him the whole way.
The match of the day will present the only speed bump that TES will face. DRX was the best laning team in the LCK, but I don't think they will be able to bully TES in lane. Top were the better team in terms of early activity with the edge in rift herald and first turret while DRX holds a slight first blood advantage. Unfortunately for DRX, their best player, much like the other two teams, is their mid laner, and they're not going to be able to get over Knight solo. Without commanding attention from the jungler and support, Chovy versus Knight will be an even matchup, whereas TES can win through top and bottom lane. I believe they will finish the way they started the group 3-0, and so I'll be loading up on them for Sunday morning.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- 369 - TOP
- Knight - MID
Flyquest (LCS) +425 vs. DRX; +600 vs. TES; -130 vs. UOL
This Flyquest squad left for dead after the group draw was the most competitive LCS team in the opening week, and I'm here to say they will go 2-1 on Sunday morning. They were even with DRX until they went overaggressive on a rift herald contest that cost them a couple turrets and a 4k gold deficit. The biggest take away from the first week for me is that in comparison to the other NA squads, Flyquest were proactive, and they punched up. That's why I'm willing to side with them to go 2-1 on Sunday, but lose the tiebreaker with DRX.
Flyquest will have the advantage of side selection in the rematch with DRX, and with some of the draft shenanigans we've seen from the Korean team, I think this does help FLY quite a bit. Ignar and Santorin are aggressive enough to help top and bot win matchups while POE is strong enough to stand on his own versus Chovy without losing too hard. Fly will need to increase their early activity, but they hold a higher first blood and rift herald percentage than DRX. If they allow DRX to farm it out in the early game, they can't win. DRX were 14-11 on red in summer while Fly are 11-5 on blue, and I think it may be enough to tip the scales in this match.
We saw FLY stay competitive with TES in their first matchup as well, but ultimately fall short. That was another positive for this squad; their positive showing on the blue side versus TES. They will now have the counter pick in the second half of the round-robin, but unfortunately, I don't think it will help them in their attempts to beat TES. Jackelove and 369 are a different tier than the DRX bot and top lanes, plus I've already used all my upset luck for the day.
Fly is being disrespected by looking at these betting lines, and I think people forget that UOL is best on the red side, allowing them to use the counter pick with their innate flexibility to win drafts. Fly will have counterpick in this match, and although we've seen them perform better on blue, I think the take away from UOL is maybe even more important. I like the NA squad here as POE carried as hard as anyone in the tournament's first week.
Top Fly Plays:
- PowerOfEvil - MID
- Santorin - JNG
- Ignar - SUP
- Wildturtle - ADC
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DRX (LCK) -750 vs. Flyquest; -550 vs. UOL; +165 vs. TES
DRX had a good opening week, but weren't able to overcome Top esports for first in the group. I'm looking for history to repeat itself in the second week of the group stage. DRX open versus Flyquest, a team that they had some trouble with in their first matchup. It was an even matchup until a disastrous rift herald contest gave DRX a 4k gold lead over Fly. DRX needs to not int the draft phases and keep the early game quiet, which will allow them to win lane win game versus the NA squad. I might be overaggressive myself calling for DRX to lose the first match to the NA third seed. DRX has merely not to lose the matchup to win it.
UOL was the trendy upset pick over DRX to open the tournament, which did not age well. The Korean side was too much for the Russians, and we saw them dispatch UOL with the quickness. UOL will be on red for this match, but I don't think it will be enough to put them over DRX. DRX has shown that they can play mages in the bot lane, and so they should be more familiar with some of the Unicorns pocket picks than some of the other teams in the group. This is an easy one for the side of DRX.
In the game of the day, DRX will have blue, which will help them with some comfort picks versus TES. Ultimately I think the LPL side is more active early, picking up the first turret, rift herald, first drake, and likely holding the gold lead at the fifteen-minute mark. This match is another spot where DRX will look to slow things down and farm it out—relying on their excellent laning to put them ahead without much effort on their part. The problem is I don't see Jackeylove waiting for anything, and the bot diff will be on display again for TES.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
- Chovy - MID
Unicorns of Love (LCL) +575 vs. TES; +335 vs. DRX; -110 vs. Fly
UOL was a hot property coming in off the back of an amazing play-ins performance. They got dumpstered by DRX and TES, and although they had every chance to beat FLY but couldn't convert. They are a scrappy team and will never give up, but they can't match these other team's talent level. If you want to go back to UOL vs. Flyquest, hoping that this time they can finish what they started, I won't argue with you. For me though, this team had their chance to surprise in the first week and couldn't come through. I will be fading them on Sunday.
Top UOL Plays:
- FADE
Summary
- TLDR - TES 3-0, FLY 2-1, DRX 1-2, and UOL 0-3. If you're not buying my Flyquest love, I don't blame you, but I liked their never say die attitude in week one.
- TES/DRX should be the chalk of the slate, and I will likely play a few of those lines as well. The main ways to get different here will be to play heavy DRX, hoping they get over TES, or join me in my Flyquest folly as I'm sure it will be called by the time the games are over.
- The group's final day is here, and then we're on to the knockout brackets for best of five two day slates as our lol year draws to a close. We don't know what the New Year will bring, but again I hope I've helped a few of you enjoy some action-packed LOL DFS during the hard times this spring and summer and brought a few new rabid fans on board.
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