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Our Week 4 GPP DFS stacks definitely have a common thread to them, but we'll get to them in a minute. The most popular DFS stacks are likely going to be stacking Seattle, game stacking Det/NO, and then those looking to ride two of the hotter quarterbacks lately, Cam Newton or Patrick Mahomes. And I do like those stacks...for cash games. They are going to be way too popular for my tastes to play in GPPs. And remember, that's what this column is all about - GPP stacks.
With that framework in mind, the more I looked, the more three teams kept piquing my interest and all of them happen to be in the AFC North. And don't worry, it's not the Pittsburgh Steelers! Hopefully, by now you know that they won't be playing this weekend. And also hopefully this Titans incident is an isolated incident, but unfortunately, I doubt it is.
I'll stop there before I go down a path I don't want to do down. So here are three of my favorite GPP stacks for you to consider for our NFL Week 4 DFS stacks.
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Week 4 DFS Stacks: The "Costly" Stack - Baltimore Ravens
The less popular stacks are often the more expensive ones because folks would rather find the values than grab the potentially overpriced options. But what that does is open a door for opportunity for you to snag potentially high-priced studs who will still produce even if it means possibly overspending.
And that starts with the expensive stack of Lamar Jackson and his stud TE, Mark Andrews. Watching Monday night's game you could see that Jackson was visibly agitated. After both losing and being embarrassed on Monday night, I suspect the Ravens come out angry and go Hulk against Washington. The oddsmakers have the Ravens currently favored by 14 with a with an over/under pushing 46. Dan Snyder's team will be lucky if the game remains that close. In fact, that's the number one reason to fade Lamar and Andrews--this game could be out of hand before half time. If that's the case then they might disappoint. Otherwise, I'd bet on the opposite.
Here's a meaningless stat for you. Last year the Ravens also lost to the Chiefs in week three and Jackson came back the following week to throw three touchdowns. Here's a more meaningful stat: the Redskins have allowed 738 yards of offense the last two weeks and that was Arizona and Cleveland. Expect for LJax to account for at least 300 yards of offense. Andrews meanwhile led all tight ends last year with ten touchdowns. He's obviously a little bit off that pace, but I'd bet on him scoring this weekend. Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs so far this season. And that was with Chase Young, who will definitely be missed by the Washington defense.
The third piece of this stack is Marquise Brown. He leads the team in both targets and receiving yards. With players surrounding him on both sites who have produced more already this year, I expect him to go overlooked and under-owned. DraftKings surprisingly jumped Brown's price by $600 after his dismal performance last week. The DK algorithm obviously thinks last week was the exception, not the trend. I'm inclined to agree.
Week 4 NFL DFS Stacks: The Matchup Stack - Cleveland Browns
There seems to be some backlash against Baker Mayfield and the Browns. Maybe it's because of the over-saturation of Mayfield and his commercials. Maybe it's because of Odell Beckham Jr. is constantly hurt or underperforming. Of course, its tweets like this that give me far great pause:
Updated: #Browns Odell Beckham Jr. was added to the injury report on Thursday as limited with a back injury, which might explain his somber mood in his interview; K. Hunt still idle w/groin injury; R. Harrison sat out with an illness https://t.co/kO8OD4bSwD
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 1, 2020
But something tells me that Odell plays this weekend. Part of the reason is that he knows when he can dominate. And this matchup is too juicy to ignore. Dallas has given up the second-most fantasy points to WRs this year and with Landry still not 100%, expect Beckham to continue to embarrass the Dallas secondary. He has done it plenty of times before, including the catch for which he might be best known.
And if OBJ has a big day, obviously Mayfield will have a good one too. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys are just slightly better against quarterbacks than they are against WRs. I just mentioned they are the second most generous against the latter and they are the third most generous in giving up fantasy points to signal-callers. The Cowboys are giving up a league-worst .65 fantasy points per pass attempt. The Browns have been focusing on the ground game, but I remind you that this game has an over/under around 56. With that many plays, Mayfield could still see his attempts approach closer to 40 than the 23 he had each of the last two weeks.
Kareem Hunt has a ton of upside to complete this stack and I wouldn't fault you for going with the QB/WR/RB stack. However, especially with Landry still gimpy and Njoku on the IR, I think we finally see a big game from Austin Hooper. Hooper is seeing his targets/catches/yards go up each week so far this season. Hooper got off to a somewhat slow start last year also and then rattled off four straight games with a touchdown. Wouldn't it be nice to get that from him while he's still priced like a mid-level TE2? And as I've said multiple times, much of this stack is about the match-up. Despite all the fantasy points, the Dallas secondary is giving up to QBs and WRs, they are still giving up the ninth most fantasy points to TEs too!
Week 4 NFL DFS Stacks: The Low Owned AND Affordable Stack - Cincinnati Bengals
My biggest concern however about Cleveland is that they might be fairly high owned. Which brings us to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have yet to win and are averaging less than 23 points a game. They don't exactly scream DFS studs. And they will be low owned. However, I think they will provide plenty of production and therefore value, allowing you to spend up elsewhere.
The stack obviously begins with Joe Burrow, who so far has shown plenty of promise and why he deserved to be the top pick overall. After a disastrous opening game, Burrow rebounded nicely with a combined 628 passing yards over the last two weeks. And unlike the last two weeks, he'll be back home taking on the woeful Jaguars. If the Dallas defense has been a joke, the Jacksonville defense might be just a small snicker behind them.
Jacksonville is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. And remember that .65 fantasy points allowed per pass attempt that Dallas is giving up? Jacksonville is right behind them with .63 fantasy points allowed per pass attempt. Burrow is averaging 47 pass attempts per game. Even if he only has 40 attempts, that's 24 points right there and doesn't include any of his rushing attempts. Burrow could easily be a borderline QB1 this week.
Of course, Burrow's success will hinge upon his receivers and it starts with his favorite target, Tyler Boyd. Boyd leads the team in targets with 26 and is averaging nearly ten yards per target with 230 receiving yards already this year. Boyd's ascension to the top of the WR chart is not really a surprise. However, the ascension of Tee Higgins over AJ Green is a bit surprising. Green was out-targeted by Higgins this past week who had quite the fantasy day with two touchdowns. That's two more touchdowns than Green has had in the Bengals last 19 games. Of course, I say that a bit tongue-in-cheek, but at a lower cost, I'm grabbing Higgins to fill out my stack.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your Week 4 DFS GPP Stacks!
