RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Day one is in the books, and repeat after me I WILL NOT OVERREACT. I mean, honestly, what else do you expect and LPL fanatic to say after that opening day. I'm back today for more punishment on the main slate.
We'll get the KID (as in Hofferkid) into action on Sunday, so don't worry, you'll get a fresh set of eyes on these slates soon. I mean I did tell you that the Esports crew here at Rotoballer would be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 7:20 AM ET on Saturday, September 26th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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7:20 AM: UOL (LCL) - 140 vs. PSG Talon (PCS)
Sometimes, you see a method to the madness, and I think if you read my early only article today, you're definitely thinking about the madness. I took V3 to beat the nearly undefeated Unicorns of Love squad. All part of my grand plan to try to get this betting line and DK ownership as high as possible on PSG Talon so that I can turn right around and tell you that UOL is winning this one. Why do you ask? Simply because if we've learned anything, this split its to expect the unexpected. That and leverage against the field. Unless UOL comes out and blows the doors off V3, I don't think many people will be able to come off of PSG now that they have looked and scored great two games in a row. As I already went through the stats on UOL in the early slate, they are, as expected, insane for a team with only one loss on the split.
Historically, PCS has been the fifth major region or maybe more correctly, the minor regions' boss. Going off of their impeccable day one performance and their region's strength historically, we should see PSG win here. Call it devils advocacy or a pure DFS play, but I think if things play out according to my script, I'll take the Unicorns here at depressed ownership. Suppose you, however, are a rational human and not under the effects of severe lack of sleep. In that case, you can't pass up the value on PSG, especially on DK, where they are priced true to these odds; FD the pricing is more representative of yesterday's results with only a few hundred dollars separating the teams.
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Nomanz - MID
- SaNTaS - SUP
- Gadget - ADC
Top PSG Talon Plays:
- Kongyue - JNG
- Uniboy - MID
- Kaiwing - SUP
- Hanabi - TOP
8:10 AM: Papara Super Massive (TCL) vs. MAD Lions (LEC) -280
MAD might be the happiest team that LGD fell flat on day one, as it takes a lot of attention away from them. They had an abysmal performance versus INTZ, managing to win despite themselves with a little boost from Tay's fat finger teleport instead of securing first blood. Then they continued to turbo int versus TL, giving the normally boring AF NA squad a slate breaking 22 kills. Shadow especially will be memed constantly today after his performance on Evelynn. Luckily for MAD, they will have a day to circle the wagons and figure out what went wrong and where to fix it. Unluckily for them, the Turkish champs have an excellent jungler on tap ready to force more errors out of Shadow.
SM had seven losses in the summer split, but three of those were with their replacement squad at the start of the split before the imports KaKAO and Snowflower joined. Even with those losses figured in SM are a good early game team. MAD will have the advantage in first blood %, but the Turkish champs answer with better first turret rate, rift herald percentage, and gold differential at fifteen. MAD has the better baron percentage and vision numbers, but SM the better drake take. MAD is the higher rated team from a stronger region, but again I can't help myself with these underdogs. I like SM here to put MAD up against the wall in these play-ins and put them one step closer to fulfilling my pre worlds prediction that MAD doesn't get out of play-ins. I think that SM can lead this early and hang on late, and if MAD gets behind, we've seen that they can feed trying to get back into the game. After a tough day one, the pressure will be on the Spanish side, which may influence them a bit. MAD already made a ton of unforced errors on day one, and if SM has a strong start to this game as I think they will, we could see more.
Top PSM Plays:
- KaKAO - JNG
- Bolulu - MID
- Zeitnot - ADC
- Snowflower - SUP
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8:10 AM: Team Liquid (LCS) -500 vs. Legacy (OPL)
I told several people yesterday that I was more sure of a Legacy win over INTZ than I was of LGD. Little did I know how right that was. Today though, LGC steps up a notch or two in terms of competition. TL did me good yesterday, capitalizing on MAD mistakes to come out on top with a slate breaking 22 kills. I don't expect this match to get as wild as that one did, or as up and down as Legacy's first match. Legacy's path to victory will be to jump on TL early, but TL is solid and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. LGC will not be able to out lane TL as they have done in their home region, and we saw them make a lot of mistakes yesterday looking to outplay INTZ at many critical junctures only to find out they barely passed their skill checks. When it comes to early objectives, TL has the advantage in first blood, rift herald, and first turret, but the gold differential at 15 favors LGC. Most of that comes from that lane prowess as LGC control 51.2% of their lane CS and lead the OPL in CSPM by a wide margin. TL is also strong laners holding 50.45 in lane farm and sitting second in CSM in the LCS with a number slightly better than Legacy. TL has a better baron percentage, and the vision numbers are very close. I don't think LGC will be able to get ahead early, and TL's superior objective control will lead them to victory.
Top TL Plays:
- Jensen - MID
- Broxah - JNG
- Tactical - ADC
- CoreJJ - SUB
Summary
- TLDR - UOL, SM, and TL win. I might be wishful thinking on two of those as regional strength is often a determiner of international play results. PSG and MAD have the advantage when it comes to home regions, and especially in the case of PSG, it will be hard to fade them on DK.
- The SM/MAD game should be the main target for kills. MAD go over 18 in wins and 20 in losses with SM over 17 on both accounts. I'll grab my big stacks from this match and look for some smaller pieces and TL team from the other two.
- TL could be a bit sneaky again for upside today with LGC giving up 16.5 deaths in their losses. I think MAD tightens up after a shaky day one, and that could depress scoring in that second match.
- I hope you all enjoyed day one. It was, how you say, a BANGER, and its only the first day, of PLAY-INS. The stage is a work of art and a dam technological miracle. I think the entire thing is a screen. The opening ceremonies for the main stage are going to be INSANE. Lots of caps, I know, but I am so excited to share this event with all my new friends and followers, and I sincerely hope you too fall in love with this sport the way I have, even if you have come to it in a roundabout way.
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