NHL DFS for FanDuel, DraftKings (9/25): Value Plays, Goalies, Power Plays, Core 4, Stacks

4 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Saturday, September 25th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

Please note this is the front end of a back-to-back which is unprecedented in the Stanley Cup Final.

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/25

Dallas Stars (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160)

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

Team	Goalie GAA	Goalie SS	Goalie RBS	Goalie GSAA	Goalie QS%
Anton Khudobin	2.72 -- 9th	32.09	2	0.83	47.6
Andrei Vasilevskiy	1.89 -- 2nd	29.77	1	7.58	63.6

The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. Anton Khudobin took over for Ben Bishop and ran with the starting job in these playoffs. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.

Now, what has been lost in some of the big picture numbers is that Anton Khudobin has been more of a victim overreacting to what Tampa Bay does in this round. If anyone has noticed, the Lightning place a premium on creating traffic in front of a goaltender with speed. Players do not stay in a spot long as they are often moving. That movement and Tampa Bay's ability to attack quickly has hurt Dallas often in this series. It has forced Khudobin to cheat way more than usual in the last two games and the result have been Lightning wins in both.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has had his moments too but as often is the case, the Russian goalie has found a way to play his best when the game matters most. He has made the saves in this series that Khudobin has failed to make. Yes, Khudobin faces more shots but the quality of chances are far greater from Tampa Bay. It is not to say that Dallas has not had their moments. It is just that Tampa Bay executes at a more efficient level.

Power Play Analysis

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
Dallas Stars	24.7% -- 2	84.6% -- 2
Tampa Bay Lightning	19.4% -- 6	82.1% -- 7

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!

The Dallas power play has been vital in their ability to advance through the first three rounds. With Jamie Benn scoring at will and a top unit that features players like John Klinbgberg and Joe Pavelski. Also, do not forget about Alexander Radulov and Miro Heiskanen who are both dangerous as well. Yet this power play in Games 2 and 3 has gone away from its working formula and become too cute. The results have been a disaster.

Tampa Bay's power play went belly up versus the New York Islanders. It then began to bounce back in Games 2 and 3 of this series. The return of Steven Stamkos in Game 3 gave everyone a lift from top to bottom and that had an effect on the man advantage. Tampa Bay looked energized and raring to go throughout the contest. The five-man unit struck fear into the hearts of the Dallas penalty killers throughout Wednesday night.

NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown

Captain Picks

Victor Hedman ($13,200 DK/ $12,500 FD) - Hedman has enjoyed two great games against the Dallas Stars and now has ten goals on the playoffs. He could be the favorite for the Conn Smythe even with Nikita Kucherov enjoying the postseason he has. The reason is simple. Hedman dominates and impacts the game like few defenseman could from the blueline. He has scored double digits in four of his last five DFS outings. This is in spite of no blocks over the last two games.
Nikita Kucherov ($16,500 DK/ $15,000 FD) - Kucherov is the most expensive player on the slate but also carries the highest ceiling of all skaters in this game. He is coming off two very good performances where he had two points in each game (1 goal, 3 assists overall). Kucherov had eight shots and six scoring chances between Games 2 and 3 combined. He is the most dangerous player on the ice especially when that first unit power play is in rhythm. Hint. It is right now.
Jamie Benn ($12,000 DK/ $13,500 FD) - If you want to go a bit contrarian then Benn is your guy. Tyler Seguin has done so little, it is painful. Also, Miro Heiskanen, other than a few flashes, has been largely inept at scoring goals. Benn has not fared much better but does have six scoring chances and six shots in the last two contests. The problem is Dallas just cannot convert many of those opportunities. Benn has been in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy a ton and might want to shoot more and pass to Seguin less. That may go for every Dallas player at this juncture.

Value Picks

Ondrej Palat ($8,200 DK/ $10,500 FD) - Palat has been skating with the top Lightning line all postseason long and has filled in nicely for Steven Stamkos. Palat is cheaper than his other linemates but allows you to get exposure to the top line and the top powerplay line as well. He has scored double-digit DK points in seven of his last ten games. If needing salary relief, Palat can be viable in tournaments for the captain role due to his recent form and salary savings that he provides. With or without Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos, Palat has carried a nice floor and had 3+ shots in four of his last five games.
Jamie Oleksiak ($3,400 DK/ $8,000 FD) - Oleksiak has been playing mostly on the second defense pairing. If he can muster around 20 minutes a night (almost all even strength time), that is fine. He can block quite a few shots and will provide occasional offense when his shot comes close or hits the net. Oleksiak has been an asset on DraftKings in particular blocking 3+ shots a night over his previous four contests. That block bonus is important and helps the defender easily exceed value.
Jason Dickinson ($3,600 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Dickinson is minimum or near minimum price in all formats and has seven shots and four scoring chances in his previous three games. He is a risk worth taking as nothing more than a punt play to fill out rosters while saving a few dollars on some of the bigger choices. Dickinson was normally playing bottom six minutes but is averaging around 16 minutes a night in the Stanley Cup Final. He has looked reasonably solid despite the elevated role. Furthermore, he has scored twice in this series and has been one of Dallas' more dangerous threats. Go figure!