Fantasy Football Buy or Sell - Week 3

In the Week 3 edition of Buy or Sell, analyst Kev Mahserejian breaks down several NFL skill players that are eligible trade or add/drop candidates for fantasy football.

The fantasy stonks market is always a fun one to evaluate. Buy/Sell articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to buy those that are cold and sell the hot. Buy-low, sell-high is the motto but also, sometimes it is ok to buy-high if you aren't buying as high as it could be. This sounds unintelligible but it makes sense in my head.

Now, two weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming and others over-performing. The trade market has the most leverage possible early on in the year when owners are 0-2 or 1-1 with injuries flooding them (especially this year). The time to buy/sell is now and I am here to help.

If you like this piece or others like it,  follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon to catch on any relevant and/or ask questions. Best of luck!

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Players to Buy

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins presumably acquired both Matt Breida and Jordan Howard in the offseason to overtake the backfield as a 1-2 punch yet have stuck in-house with Myles Gaskin to carry the load. Thus far, there has been a 65-35 snap-split in favor of Gaskin with the other two backs. There does not seem to be any indication that this will change outside of a Gaskin injury or in-game mistake meaning he is the guy to own in that RB room.

The Dolphins offensive line may not be the best in the league but they possess a competent passing offense with a heightened ceiling if rookie Tua Tagovailoa were to take over. Gaskin is utilized as not only a rusher but also a receiver quite often and checks the athletic boxes necessary to indicate that he can maintain success. He is not much more than a low-end RB2 but given the state of the position and his availability, why not take that?

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

T.Y. Hilton has played uncharacteristically poor throughout his first two games of 2020 with new QB Philip Rivers. Hilton is only charged with one drop on the season but he has missed several catchable balls and has not exceed 10 PPR points in either game thus far. It is also important to note that he only played 58% of the offensive snaps in this past game versus Minnesota, possibly due to poor play.

Nevertheless, he has been targeted 14 times and should return to form sooner than later. He was dealing with a lower-body ailment in the offseason but Hilton is notorious for always having to deal with something (and often play through it). While we may project that age is catching up to the 31-year old receiver, at least on film, it does not look like he's lost a step with regards to speed. Lord knows that the Colts are going to need that now, more than ever with Parris Campbell essentially out for the regular season.  Plus, his grandma expects better!

Golden Tate, New York Giants

With Sterling Shepard (toe) placed on injured reserve and Tate back on the field, it is easy to piece together a boost for Tate going forward. Tate and Shepard do not eat much into each-others' play-time, however, their skillsets as talented slot receivers overlap and generally limit the function of an offense given that neither offers a niche, versatile ability to optimize an offense.

Tate caught all five of his targets for 47 yards in his lone outing of the season while playing 62% of the offense's snaps. Last season, Tate scored at least 10 PPR points in nine-of-eleven games after missing the first few weeks of the season with an injury. He is a high-end WR3 moving forward.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers

Curtis Samuel is an interesting case given his career thus far. He came out of the gates firing in Carolina with Cam Newton but, unfortunately, broke his ankle and has not been very productive since. Part of the reason for his lack of production is Newton's injuries hampering his ability to throw along with the poor quarterback carousel in recent years. While Christian McCaffrey is hurt, an opportunity is open for Samuel to take over a larger role in the backfield and possibly maximize his unique skill-set.

The Panthers have failed Samuel to a particular degree by not utilizing him as a deep threat more often, rather, forcing him to play in the slot where his abilities are inhibited. The man runs as 4.31 40, he is not meant to play through contact without the ball in his hands. It is also important to note that Samuel had more rush attempts (172) than receptions (107) in college. A good chunk of those came on jet sweeps/end-around plays but he does possess the ability to operate in the backfield and can be motioned outside to run go-routes. Samuel may have been dropped in your league but he is worth a speculative add everywhere to see his usage in Week 3.

Players to Sell

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

James Conner has had a..fascinating start to 2020. After getting benched(?) Week 1 for Benny Snell, Conner came out and had arguably his best performance in two years in Week 2. The report in Week 1 seemed to be that he was dealing with an ankle issue but he looked fine on the sidelines and was itching to get back in the game but with Snell out-performing him, Conner remained sidelined. Maybe it was an early-season thing with no preseason to re-introduce the players to game speed?

No one knows for sure outside of that locker room, all we do know is that Benny Snell was essentially benched in Week 2 after fumbling, and it resulted in a Conner breakthrough and sell-window. Now, Coach Tomlin has come out over the offseason and stated that Conner is the bell-cow, three-down back for them but actions speak louder than words and we saw last year a committee incorporated in Pittsburgh for the first time in years. While it is unfair to deem Conner, or any player for that matter as "injury-prone" he is as close to the label as possible. Conner is a sell given the unknown nature of that backfield.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

In Week 1, Josh Allen just crossed 300 passing yards for the first time in his statistically relevant football career then topped that performance with his first 400 passing yard game in Week 2. The addition of Stefon Diggs to that offense has seemingly paid dividends early-on and should continue to assuming everyone stays healthy. The Bills have a potent, well-meshed receiving corps in Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley but knowing Allen, it is probable best to assume that the mistakes will come sooner than later while the improvements level off to a degree.

However, it should not be ignored that the Bills have faced two of the softest pass-defenses in the NFL, the Jets and the Dolphins. Allen is now up to 727 passing yards and 6 passing touchdowns on the season with 76 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. He was extremely fantasy relevant in 2019 and should remain so in 2020 but not to the same level as he's performed thus far. Sell Allen to a QB-needy owner desperate for upside at the position and roll with either a streamer or underperforming player (Daniel Jones) who has brighter days ahead.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers

With Christian McCaffrey out-of-commission and, uh, Mike Davis remaining as the heir-apparent in the Carolina backfield, it is fair to assume that we might not see a direct siphon from CMC to Davis given Davis's level of talent. Davis is a journeyman who has had some modicum of success in the past with Seattle.

He possess receiving ability but has displayed rushing success in the past while playing with Russell Wilson but it is difficult to envision Davis succeeding behind the poor Carolina OL with Teddy Bridgewater quarterbacking the offense, especially when CMC of all people averaged below four yards per carry with them.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

Fantasy-wise, Robby Anderson has performed like a top-5 receiver throughout the first two weeks of the season. Kudos to any owner who started Anderson and benefitted from his breakout performances but it is highly unlikely that he remains in that echelon, or even close to it for the rest of the season unless something were to happen to D.J. Moore. The targets are surely there and should remain relatively high all season given Carolina's need to throw, especially with CMC out, but with 18 through two games, it is hard to imagine Anderson maintaining a pace of nine per game.

Seven targets per game is a more reasonable season-long projection. Also, his catch-rate through two games is an unsustainable 83.3% (career average is around 55%). While Bridgewater is the most accurate QB he has ever played with, Anderson's style-of-play is not suited for this sort of astronomical bump. He will come back down to Earth sooner, rather than later. While some owners in your league may remain skeptical on the speedy Anderson maintaining serious value all year, maybe someone buys-in at a premium if they are WR-needy, especially given that he used to be a WR1 on a team and is now away from the limiting grips of Adam Gase. Anderson is a high-end WR3 but could possibly be sold as a WR2 right now due to perception.

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