RADIO
Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season will hit the history books as one of the most injury-ridden slates of games in fantasy football history.
On top of the injury madness, we have a lot of players who are currently stepping into different phases of their careers. Some are down trending and others are getting ready to ascend to greatness.
Let’s take a look at some of the top warning signals that we need to act on from Week 2.
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Quarterback
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Unfortunately, Saquon Barkley tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. This could cause a major blow to Jones’ fantasy production because he won’t have Barkley to dump the ball and Barkley’s rushing ability helped maintain drives.
The yards gained after the catch from Barkley can’t be reproduced. In 2019, he averaged 8.42 yards after the catch per reception. He’s dangerous with the ball in hands in the open field because he can easily turn a routine play into a long gain Jones might struggle without Barkley in the backfield behind him.
On the flip side, Jones might have to consistently chuck it to his receivers to keep the Giants competitive. They won’t be able to rely on the run game anymore and will need to lean on the pass. Barkley’s injury won’t help Jones’ efficiency, but it could increase his overall fantasy production. Either way, things are going to get very interesting in New York.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
The days of Jones being the main wide receiver for the Atlanta Falcons might be over. He’s still a very talented player, but he’s not the only talented pass-catcher in the offense anymore. Calvin Ridley has developed into one of the top wide receivers in the league. He’s a very efficient route runner and has become one of Matt Ryan’s favorite go-to targets.
Ridley leads the team in almost all receiving categories with 16 receptions for 239 yards and four touchdowns. He is leading the Falcons with a 25 percent target share and with 229 air yards. On top of that, he’s been the most efficient receiver on the team, averaging 2.72 yards per route run.
Jones is going to remain a fantasy-relevant asset, but fantasy gamers should expect him to decrease in overall value due to Ridley’s recent rise in production.
Russell Gage is a free square in the offense. He has been wildly exceeding expectations, catching 15 balls for 160 yards and one touchdown. He might not be a mega-producer, but his 24 percent target share prevents Jones from seeing his ceiling.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Green is riding off into the sunset as a serviceable fantasy football chess piece which is far from the stud wide receiver from long ago. After two weeks, he leads the league with 338 air yards while also seeing the fourth-most 22 targets. Unfortunately, he could only muster 80 yards from his current work rate.
Fantasy general managers are at a crossroads with Green and they don’t even know it. Two things are going to happen. His current rate of targets and air yards is going to eventually allow him to generate high-level production or he’s going to continue to be a disappointment. A larger sample size will yield the results needed to make an accurate assessment. Greens' inability to maximize his opportunities with an elite level workload is a warning signal that the meter is going to move one way or another.
Running Back
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With the Buccaneers signing Leonard Fournette before the start of the season, Jones needs to perform at his best to maintain a strong handle on his current role within the offense. Week two is an indicator that his grasp of the starting role is slipping through his fingers. Against the Panthers, he carried the ball seven times for 23 yards and one touchdown while averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
Fournette is slowly taking over the workload out of the backfield. In week two he owned a 54.54 percent share of the Buccaneer’s rushing attempts and 84.43 percent of the team’s rushing production. He also saw a 14.29 percent target share.
As Fournette gets acclimated to the offense Tom Brady is going to start looking to him more. There’s a good chance Brady steps in and requests for Fournette’s services over Jones’ because he’s the more reliable player on the field.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor received a 65.12 percent opportunity share out of the backfield in week two. Hines was just subjected to just one target. The team leaned heavily on the rookie running back who delivered his first 100-yard performance of his career.
Hines saw a steep decrease in workload. The game script forced Hines to just a 12 percent snap share. The team didn’t need Hines on the field because they were playing with a lead during the majority of the game and didn’t need to rely on the pass.
Sunday’s game was an indicator that Hines’ workload is game script dependent. The Colts will need to be in situations where they are throwing a lot for him to be usable in fantasy. Since he’s not going to receive consistent usage, he’s not going to be functional in fantasy.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay
The bottom has fallen out of Gronkowski’s fantasy stock. He doesn’t look like the tight end from his earlier days. The reports from the off-season weren’t fully factual and the proof is in his usage. In two games with the Buccaneers, he has seen just five targets. O.J. Howard out targeted him in both games. If you drafted him with the hopeful expectations that he could rebuild his rapport with Brady, then you need to reevaluate your decision because Gronkowski is best left on the waiver wire.
Breakout Alert!
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The addition of Stefon Diggs flew under the radar all off-season. However, this is a match made in heaven, providing Allen the true alpha-target-hog to help elevate the passing game. Allen’s never say die attitude combined with his strong arm, makes him one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league when paired with elite-level talent.
In two weeks, Diggs and Allen have already connected 16 times for 239 yards and one touchdown. It appears they have already built a rapport and it shows. The potential is through the roof and there’s a chance we could see Allen finish in the top five in fantasy this year.
The Bills still have John Brown stretching the field, making it easy for Diggs to maneuver the short to intermediate sectors of the field. The extra threat in the passing game opens the running lanes by making it harder for opposing defenses to put extra defenders in the box.
Allen is one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks in the league. With him being able to sling passes to a better wide receiver corps and take over as the main threat in the Bills’ rushing attack, we could truly see him ascend to being one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league. These last two weeks might be signaling to fantasy managers that Allen is taking a step forward and becoming one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL.
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