RADIO
Here we go! The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs wrap up on Saturday night under the lights at Bristol.
Drivers like Ryan Blaney and Matt DiBenedetto essentially need to pull off a victory to advance, while Austin Dillon sits sixth in points and is poised to advance and be the biggest surprise of the first round.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Bass Pro Shops Night Race
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Bristol
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
First, poor Cole Custer. Being a playoff driver has him starting way too high for him to be a viable fantasy play when there are guys with similar projections to his who come in at $1,000 cheaper. Custer's going to be a good driver in this series, but his surprise win this year means he's likely to have too much place differential downside across the rest of 2020.
Bubba Wallace is a really good value play, with a projected 5.88 FP/$. Wallace -- who announced he's leaving Richard Petty Motorsports and might be heading for a revamped Gaunt Brothers car in 2021 -- has four top 20 finishes here in five starts, including a top 10 earlier this year. He's led more laps here than at any non-superspeedway track and it's one of just four tracks where his average finish is better than 20th. Starting 27th offers some strong upside.
Speaking of place differential upside, this hasn't been the best year for John Hunter Nemechek but of the "yes, this is a decent race car" tier of guys, he starts the deepest in the field in 31st. Could be a strong play in some GPPs as he did finish 13th here earlier in the year.
And while not on the above list, Timmy Hill has a projected FP/$ of exactly five. He's not in a good car, driving for Carl Long, but he finished 19th in this 66 car in the spring. While his average finish this year is 33.5, his performance at Bristol gives me some interest in him, though I wouldn't have too much exposure.
Bristol Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Richmond ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
So, a little more parity at the top than usual, since usually the numbers are just Kevin Harvick beating the whole field.
Kyle Busch is the obvious standout here. While he's yet to win a race in 2020, Bristol might be his best chance to avoid his first winless season since he ran six races part-time in 2004. Busch has won here eight times and ha 18 top 10s in 30 starts.
After crashing out in three consecutive races here in 2016 and 2017, Busch has five top fives in the last six Bristol races, including three victories. He's led over 100 laps in three of those races, and in his career here has led 250 or more laps four times. (That's leading at least half the race.)
Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski haven't had the same level of performance here, and you may want to go slightly lighter on them.
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Other Interesting Notes!
Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:
- Daniel Suarez has run really well here, never finishing outside of the top 20. His one season with GBR has been a disaster, but he did finish 18th in the first Bristol race.
- Chase Elliott has only finished 86 percent of short track laps this year.
- Martin Truex Jr.'s average finish at Bristol recently: 19.9
- Erik Jones has an average running position of 10.7 here.
- Jimmie Johnson has a driver rating 10 percent above his average at short/steep tracks.
- Austin Dillon's is at negative six percent at short/steep tracks.
- Aric Almirola is at negative 23 percent. MINUS TWENTY THREE. Yikes.
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