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Football is back and the Thursday night opener between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will offer tons of chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Kansas City Chiefs looked like they were on the ropes during their run to the Super Bowl, especially when they fell behind the Houston Texans 24-0 early in the second quarter of the Divisional Round playoff game. Then the Chiefs scored 41 straight points and cruised to a 51-31 victory. Imagine, a lopsided victory when trailing by 24 points early! That explosive offense is what makes the Chiefs one of the favorites heading into the 2020 season.
Nevertheless, the Texans have a shot at revenge. They are nine-point underdogs so the oddsmakers don’t necessarily think that this is going to be that close, or they at least expect the public sentiment to be riding with the defending Super Bowl champions. Winning the 2020 season opener will hardly equal the value of getting eliminated in the playoffs but teams looking for revenge need to take the shots when they’re available.
Here are some prop angles to consider for Thursday’s Monkey Knife Fight NFL schedule:
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HOUSTON-KANSAS CITY
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 339.5 PASSING YARDS
The Chiefs’ surge to the Super Bowl last season seems to have overshadowed the fact that Kansas City was not as prolific in the passing game in 2019. Mahomes averaged 287.9 passing yards per game last season, with a little boost to 300.3 passing yards per game in the playoffs, so counting on 340-plus is asking a lot. Houston allowed the most passing yards per game in the AFC last season (267.3) but that’s still a long way from 340.
Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 285.5 PASSING YARDS
Last season, Watson averaged 256.8 passing yards per game, down a little bit from the season before, and the Texans traded away his No. 1 wide receiver, sending DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona. They did bring in Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, and have deep threat Will Fuller, so Watson has some weapons but he also threw for 286 or more yards five times in 15 games last season.
Travis Kelce LESS THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS
A premier receiving tight end who has 200 receptions in the past two seasons, Kelce had seven or more catches nine times in 16 games last season. He also seems to be battling through a knee injury so maybe this isn’t the week to bank on a big performance.
Will Fuller LESS THAN 72.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Fuller is a fascinating case because he’s a true deep threat who can put up monster numbers but he’s always injured and those few games when he erupts stand out relative to all the other games. For example, in 11 games last season, he surpassed 73 yards twice. He had 140 yards and 217 yards in those two big games but there are so many games in which Fuller’s production is mediocre.
Tyreek Hill LESS THAN 79.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Last season, the Chiefs’ deep threat had 80 or more yards three times in a dozen games. He’s not as extreme as Fuller, and has a higher floor, but Hill is in that group of players who can put up enormous yardage…or not. I’m apparently a skeptic for the offenses in the opening game.
David Johnson LESS THAN 59.5 RUSHING YARDS
2019 was a disaster for Johnson, as he rushed for 345 yards, but he was clearly injured for a good portion of the season so it’s not unreasonable to believe that a healthy Johnson could give the Texans a sound rushing attack. The thing with Johnson, though, is that the receiving game is a significant part of why he is a threat.
RAPID FIRE
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +0.5 rushing yards vs. David Johnson
Generally, I have some optimism about Johnson’s chances for having a successful season in Houston but, because some of that success will be tied to receiving yards and because the Texans are underdogs in Week One, it’s easier to go with Chiefs rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this matchup. Edwards-Helaire is a darling of season-long fantasy drafters, maybe a bit too much, but he’s the lead runner on a powerhouse offense and the context can’t be ignored.
