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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs. Hill on 9/12/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Believe it or not, and although this is "only" UFC Vegas 10, we're about to enter the APEX for the 12th time already! Quite a few months those last ones with all of the pandemic issues going on, and we still have this weekend and next one to enjoy Vegas before we get back to Abu Dhabi for Fight Island and UFC 253. Crazy sport, a crazy schedule, and the ultimate treat for MMA fans to enjoy as much as we can. Let's go!
See, if we can get an event half as exciting as the last one, I'd be pretty pleased. UFC Vegas 9 main card offered a lot of early stoppages, both via KO and Submission. Here's to hope it happens again. There will not be top-tier names in this one such as those of Overeem or Sakai a week ago, but even with that the main-eventers Waterson and Hill rank 8th and 13th in their division and are trying to climb up for a chance at Weili Zhang's belt. Similar situation for Modafferi (7th W'Flyweight) and Lee (9th) in which truly feels like a women-loaded card full of potential future implications in two divisions.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs. Hill on 9/12/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Angela Hill, $8200- vs. Michelle Waterson
The main-eventers enter this fight having lost their last bouts, sure, but their paths there were a little different. Waterson dropped her last fight against Claudia Gadelha in May and is 4-3 since the start of 2019. Hill has lost two in a row, although those losses came against top-tier Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Sparza, and going back to 2018 she's 3-2.
Hill should find the fight against Waterson as a step-down in the level of competition, making it easier for her to get back to the winning column. The opposite thing for Waterson, who is facing a freaking brave fighter in Hill although the latter hasn't been able to capitalize as of late. All things considered, this seems like a very balanced fight.
Both women throw a high volume of strikes but Hill clearly has the edge with 12.4 SSatt/min compared to Waterson's 7.0 while landing 48% of them. Waterson has the edge on the ground, though, landing 42% of his TD attempts while attempting more than twice per round than Hill. With this most probably going the distance at 15 minutes, I'll bet on Hill outperforming Waterson and getting the best of fantasy contests just on pure volume.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ottman Azaitar, $7700- vs. Khama Worthy
Azaitar and Worthy are very unknown assets and it is hard to make any sound predictions here because of the track record of both men. Azaitar has one fight in the UFC and Worthy just a couple. Both have yet to lose in the UFC with 1-0 and 2-0 records respectively, and all wins coming via either KO or Submission.
That's all we know, and also that neither Azaitar or Worthy are going to attempt takedowns on each other. Sure, Worthy already has a submission win attached to his name, but it didn't come by taking down Luis Pena on a TD attempt. This will be a striking bout going both ways, and the most obvious outcome would probably be a knockout of one of these two guys.
I'm going with the slight-underdog here on Azaitar, who I bet will put that 2-0 in his record and hand Worthy his first defeat in the UFC bringing him down to earth a bit.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Roxanne Modafferi, $7300 - vs. Andrea Lee
Andre Lee won her first three fights in the UFC going back to May 2018 but after that, she's dropped two straight in the past year. Modafferi, on the contrary, has been on a true rollercoaster since debuting in 2018 stringing alternating Ls and Ws from day one, having lost her last fight this past June.
Yes, you read that right. Both women enter this fight on a two- and one-fight losing streaks, and both of them need to get back to the winning column in order to bring their stocks back up a bit. While Andrea Lee has the edge on striking volume, the efficiency and lending rate of both fighters is pretty much the same around 50% for each. The same goes for the grappling side of things, with both fighters putting up close numbers.
I think Lee is the favorite (she's for Vegas, and carries a 70%+ chance of winning this bout), but if you are not about paying top-dollar for her I also think Modafferi can become a real steal at her current price and her close numbers to those of Lee. Only for that, I'd go with the underdog here as my flier with potential for an upset.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ed Herman, $7400 - vs. Mike Rodriguez
Ed Herman has stepped into a UFC Octagon 20 times going back to 2006 (!). Rodriguez, on the other hand, will fight for the sixth time this weekend under the promotion's banner. Since 2016 Herman is 3-2 while Rodriguez carries an even 2-2-1 record since his debut back in 2018.
While Herman has a past loaded with takedown attempts and landings, those are not on his gameplan anymore. Sure, he went for 4 in his last fight but landed none, and in the prior five fights, he attempted all of two combined and landed one... Mike hasn't even gone for it once.
With this being a pure striking battle, it makes sense to find Rodriguez as the younger favorite with upside. But Herman's experience should allow him to navigate the first moments of the fight against Rodriguez, avoid an early flurry and a potential knockout, and work his way to a victory that could see him getting back to a TD W if he catches the "unexperienced" Rodriguez on the mat like in the good old days.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Billy Quarantillo, $9300- vs. Kyle Nelson
Battle of "newcomers" here. Quarantillo will fight for the third time in the UFC carrying a perfect 2-0 in the promotion, while Nelson will step inside the Octagon for the fourth time since 2018 having a 1-2 record to this point (he won his last one via first-round KO).
Quarantillo is the heavily-favored fighter of this fight, having 72 percent chances of getting the W and carrying a -250 Vegas line compared to Nelson's 210. Truth be told, numbers also tell that story. Billy outstrikes Kyle 6.1 SSlanded/Min to 4.2, and the landing rate is incredible for the former at a staggering 82.5%. It is not only that but also the fact that Quarantillo is only hit 1.4 times per minute compared to Kyle's 6.0 SSAbsorbed/Min.
While attempting fewer TDs per minute, Quarantillo has landed a monster 75% of them while Nelson is just 2-of-12 in his last two fights... and lost one via Submission. Don't overthink this one and go with the favorite, who is looking at a 3-0 career start.
