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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 1 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Seahawks at FAlcons, Raiders at Panthers, and Bucs at Saints.
Seahawks @ Falcons More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Matt Ryan more than 297.5 yards and Russell Wilson more than 269.5
This game should be somewhat of a shootout as the projected total is sitting at 49 as of this writing. Matt Ryan should be able to go over this total as the Seahawks allowed the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks in 2019 by allowing over 275 yards per game. Matt Ryan also has a bevy of weapons to throw the ball to as Calvin Ridley will continue his development into a star alongside Julio Jones. Ryan may also not have many choices but to throw the ball in this game as Seattle ranked 13th in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs, so Gurley could have a hard time getting going in his Falcons debut.
Wilson should have a really good shot at going over his total as well. The Falcons are in the same mold as the Seattle defense in that they were much better against the run than the pass. They allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 256 yards per game in 2019, which ranked them eighth-worst in the league. They also only gave up 124 more rushing yards to running backs than Seattle in 2019, so Chris Carson may not be the best option in this game. Seattle has two stud receivers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf who Wilson should have no issues finding in this game as Atlanta gave up the sixth-most receiving yards to wideouts in 2019.
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Raiders @ Panthers Fantasy Challenge
Recommended Prop Pick:
Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Josh Jacobs over 59.5 fantasy points
This game has a high enough total at 47.5, but I honestly think this game has the potential to be a shootout and that is exactly why I like the fantasy challenge in this game. The fact that neither one of these teams has a very good defense helps us out tremendously here as well.
McCaffrey probably needs no introduction, but he finished 2019 as the undisputed fantasy champ. He showed the ability to be a dual-threat as he rushed for over 1,300 yards and also caught 116 passes for over 1,000 yards. He was an absolute beast. He averaged nearly nine targets a game and this is why I like him so much in this contest. The Raiders were horrid against pass-catching backs in 2019 as they allowed backs to catch 83 of 105 targets for 710 receiving yards and four scores. The Raiders are also favored in this game, which means the game script could fit perfectly for McCaffrey to have a huge receiving day.
The Raiders were also awful vs. wide receivers in 2019 as they allowed the ninth-most touchdowns to the position with 17. They also gave up nearly 150 receiving yards per game to the position, which spells good things for D.J. Moore as he led the Panthers' receiving corps in receiving yards and the next closest receiver (Curtis Samuel) was more than 500 yards behind. Moore should be able to haul in plenty of passes also as he averaged nearly six per game in 2019.
The Panthers were awful against the run in 2019 as they allowed backs to rush for nearly 126 yards per game, which ranked dead-last in the league. They also allowed backs to rush for over 200 more total yards than the next closest team in the Washington Football Team. Josh Jacobs is the no-doubt lead back in Las Vegas and should be able to take advantage of this porous run defense. He averaged nearly 72 rushing yards per game in 2019 and punched in seven scores. While he did not contribute much in the passing game as noted by his 20 receptions, the Raiders are a bit light in the receiving corps with Tyrell Williams being out, so he could be more involved here on Sunday. The fact that the Raiders are favored also helps the game script for Jacobs and makes him a must include on this prop.
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Buccaneers @ Saints More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Drew Brees over 289.5 passing yards and Tom Brady over 287.5 passing yards
This game could have all the makings of a shootout as both defenses are a pass funnel and the game has a high total, which is currently sitting at 48.
Drew Brees threw for over this total in nearly half of his games in 2019 and will be going up against a defense that was completely inept against the pass in 2019. The Bucs allowed quarterbacks to average 288 passing yards per game as they gave up a total of 4,608 passing yards. While they were clearly awful vs. the pass, they performed very well against the run as they ranked first in the league by allowing running backs to only rush for a total of 907 yards. This means that Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will likely have a difficult time getting things going and thus force Brees to move the ball through the air. Brees has the best wide receiver in the league in Michael Thomas and the Saints added Emmanuel Sanders in the off-season, plus Kamara is a major threat to catch passes, so Brees has the arsenal to go over this total as well.
Tom Brady will make his Bucs debut and should be able to find success through the air against this Saints Defense. In 2019, the Saints gave up the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers by allowing nearly 160 yards to the position. It just so happens that Brady has two top-notch wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who should be able to help him get over the total. Brady also has two very capable tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard, so weapons will not be a problem here. The fact that Brady and the Bucs are underdogs in this game only helps his case for the over as well. If they are down late, Brady will be forced to throw more to attempt the comeback, so the game script is in his favor here. ***It should be noted that Mike Evans could be a game-time-decision, and if he does not end up suiting up, I do not like this prop as much because Godwin could be handled by Marshon Lattimore and that should greatly limit his productivity. This must be monitored leading up to kick.***
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