NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets and Avoids

4 years ago by Seth I. Finkelstein

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Believe it or now, Week 1 of the football season is here. It's hard to believe how fast these last few months went. The season seemingly snuck up on us with no preseason games, but did we even miss those? However, without the preseason, it's making Week 1 more difficult than usual. There are two things I'll be looking at to help you navigate Week 1 and advance on.

Returning starters vs. roster turnover. How many starters are returning from last season and which teams have the most new players? Continuity is going to be so important this year with teams unable to build chemistry in preseason. The Steelers have 20 of 22 starters returning. The Ravens are returning 19 of 22 starters. The Patriots, a team of consistency for years, not only lost Tom Brady but had several defensive starters opt-out.

Another indicator to help me navigate the early weeks is regular-season win totals. If you're unsure if teams are even, check out who's win totals are higher.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

Survivor League Strategy

I usually have several rules but this year that's all out the window. Survive and advance. We have no idea what's going to happen so make this a week-to-week game. What if one week the Jaguars, who are expected to be one of the worst teams in football, are playing the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are missing several starters to COVID. My point is you have no idea what will happen with the swirling questions. This year it's a week-to-week game.

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools, it’s very simple: pick a team to win each week; if they win, you move on to the next week. But you can't use that team again. There's no point spread involved.

Teams favored by seven of more in Week 1 per The Action Network (home team in caps); CHIEFS -9.5 vs. Texans, Colts -8 @ JAGUARS, RAVENS -8.5 vs. Browns, 49ERS -7 vs. Cardinals,

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved. Lines I'll be using are from topbet.eu.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize the team I like. It will look like this for example: Chiefs -7 vs. Broncos.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 1

Colts -8 @ JAGUARS

This is going to be one of the most popular plays survivor plays of Week 1. Jacksonville is so bad. Their quarterback is Gardner Minshew and running back is James Robinson. It feels like they're getting ready to throw this season away, fire their entire front office, head coach, and restart with Trevor Lawrence.

In a way, I know I'm going against my lead of this column regarding continuity taking the Colts with new quarterback Phillip Rivers but he's a veteran. Head coach Frank Reich is a quarterback's coach. I feel the turnover for the Colts won't be an issue.

Take a look at these two win totals too. The Colts are at nine and Jaguars 4.5.

Colts 27 - Jaguars 20

Steelers -6 @ GIANTS

This line opened at three and has been bet all the way up to six. The big question here is Ben Roethlisberger. How will he look after missing nearly all of last season. There's a lot of consistency around him with 20 of 22 starters returning. The Giants don't have much turnover, but this is Joe Judge's first game as head coach. Pittsburgh's continuity will be enough for them in Week 1.

As for win totals, Pittsburgh's is set at 9.5 and the Giants 6.5

Steelers 34 - Giants 17

LIONS -3 vs. Bears

This line opened at Lions -1 and has now moved to -3. Matthew Stafford was having a career year last season before being lost to the season in Week 9. Their defense has four Patriots starters and third overall pick, cornerback Jeff Okudah. What have the Bears done? Added Jimmy Graham who's underperformed for the past several seasons. I'm sure their defense will be good but with Mitchell Trubisky leading that offense, how are they going to keep up with Detroit's offense?

Lions 24 - Bears 14

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

BILLS -6 vs. Jets

The Bills are everyone's darling pick to win the AFC East this season but are we sure we trust Josh Allen? Buffalo has a good defense with most of its defensive starters returning. The Jets though have a lot more turnover on its roster. But it is the second year of Sam Darnold and head coach Adam Gase to further their chemistry.

These two teams usually play close games and I expect yet another one. Buffalo will not have their raucous crowd so we'll see how much of a part that plays.

Jets 23 - Bills 20

PATRIOTS -7 vs. Dolphins

As I mentioned earlier in this column, New England has had so much turnover yet are big favorites Sunday. Cam Newton is the starter but they've had no real games to build any chemistry. Miami has Ryan Fitzpatrick starting who's a good quarterback and helped the Dolphins get to 5-11 last season, something not many expected. They even beat New England in Foxborough in Week 17 last year. I think this line is too high and you're paying the Belichick Patriots tax.

Patriots 20 - Dolphins 17

Best Bets

Lions -3 vs. Bears - Notes are above.
Cardinals +7 vs 49ers - Arizona has a ton of speed. Will San Fran's conditioning be ready to go a full 60-minutes to slow down the Cardinals offense? The Super Bowl hangover is another aspect. Seven is too much to lay in a Week 1 divisional game.
Saints -3.5 vs. Bucs - I hate going against Tom Brady but New Orleans has so many of their starters returning. Tampa has had their entire team re-done. I don't believe the Bucs will be bad this year but it may take a little time to get going.

Season Picks

AFC NFC

1 - Chiefs 1 - Cowboys

2 - Ravens 2 - Saints

3 - Colts 3 - 49ers

4 - Dolphins 4 - Lions

5 - Steelers 5 - Bucs

6 - Titans 6 - Seahawks

7 - Patriots 7 - Rams

Wild Card:

Ravens over Patriots Saints over Rams

Colts over Titans 49ers over Seahawks

Steelers over Dolphins Bucs over Lions

Divisional:

Chiefs over Steelers Bucs over Cowboys

Ravens over Colts Saints over 49ers

Conference Championships:

Chiefs over Ravens Saints over Bucs

Super Bowl:

Chiefs over Saints

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