PGA Betting Advice - Tour Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (72-38-8), netting over 41 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Head-To-Head Selection (All Plays Feature Built-In Scoring For The Tour Championship)

Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Getting a one-shot edge with Lanto Griffin over Kevin Na might not seem like a ton on the surface, but it does further amplify the advantage when I had Griffin at about -110 before the bonus. Na brings very minimal form into the week and has struggled in recent years at East Lake, failing to crack the top-25 in his previous two showings.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The picture becomes a little better for Na when we remove current form from the equation. The American ranks inside the top-17 compared to the field in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green and is also second in total putting. The range of outcomes will be higher for Na, but I am willing to take him on in a market that isn't properly giving its respects to Griffin.

0.80 Units to Win 0.70

Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horschel

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I understand the intrigue around Billy Horschel at East Lake. A second-place finish at the property in 2018 to go along with four top-25s in his past seven tournaments is no doubt impressive, but the public support has become too one-sided in the head-to-head market. I have Palmer as a very slight favorite before getting the one-stroke advantage and will take my built-in edge that is being offered.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I don't have a premium play this weekend. Palmer over Horschel would have been the favorite to fit into that slot.

0.85 Units to Win 1.20

Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I have Justin Thomas as my winner for the Tour Championship, so you better believe I am going to take him against a golfer that I am going to be fading for the week. The is no question that DJ is capable of walking out of East Lake with the grand prize, but it is important to remember that his range of outcomes is wider than the average tour player. We are only a few weeks removed from Johnson posting back-to-back 80s, and I am hoping the switch to Bermuda slows him down slightly since he is typically a better putter on Bent/Poa.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We are still opposing the number one player in the world in this matchup and giving him a three-shot lead to begin the show. I can think the price is incorrect, but it is always scary to oppose Johnson when he is possessing this much form.

0.65 Units to Win 1.11

Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

If fading Dustin Johnson once wasn't good enough, let's go back to the well a second time. Don't get me wrong, the 36-year-old is the deserving favorite to beat Simpson, but where do we draw the line with the amount of value they are offering on the play? I could argue this is nearly 70 points too high, and Johnson's level of volatility could turn this into nearly a 50/50 proposition by the end of round one.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Same reasons as Thomas over Johnson.

0.45 Units to Win 1.22

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (12-11-3)

-0.47 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

19-20-0 (+1.77 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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