RADIO
Following the surprise release of running back Leonard Fournette, the Jacksonville Jaguars must find other options at RB. Justin Carter evaluates the backfield to determine who has the most fantasy football value.
Well, that was unexpected.
There was a point earlier this offseason where we all collectively thought "the Jaguars could definitely move on from Leonard Fournette," but as training camp arrived and the start of the regular season approached, we let our guard down. We drafted Fournette like he was still the main back in Jacksonville and possibly an undervalued fantasy RB. We treated the rest of the players in Jacksonville like they were basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
And then, on Monday, Jacksonville released Fournette. So, what do we make of this backfield now? Let's discuss.
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The "Lead" Back: Ryquell Armstead
Discussion of the state of this backfield has to begin with Ryquell Armstead.
The second-year back is coming off a forgettable rookie campaign, in large part because the Jaguars relied so heavily on Fournette in all areas of the game. But unless the team signs someone -- more on that later -- Armstead is set to enter Week 1 as the lead back here.
He doesn't enter that role with the same high floor as Fournette, though, and he doesn't have the role on lock like Fournette did. You were drafting Fournette as an RB2, but you should not be drafting Armstead like an RB2. There are simply too many questions that have to be answered here for us to feel comfortable with Armstead as a starting option in fantasy.
The first question is workload. Armstead's NFL sample is small. As a rookie, he carried the ball 35 times for 108 yards and added 14 receptions for 144 yards and two scores. But if we take away his production in Week 17, when he got the start for the Jags, we get 25 carries for 75 yards and nine catches for 92 yards and a score. That was a per game average of 1.7 carries for five yards, and 0.6 receptions for 6.1 yards.
So, to project Armstead to be a viable fantasy play in 2020 is to do a LOT of projection, and I think that's where looking at some of his workout metrics come in. Per PlayerProfiler, here's Armstead's workout metrics:
The speed is encouraging, but the lack of burst isn't, especially running behind an offensive line that ranked 27th in adjusted line yards last season per Football Outsiders. If Armstead can get some space in front of him, his speed suggests that he can break off some big plays, but his 3.1 yards per carry last year and 62nd rank among running backs in yards created per touch are not encouraging.
On the other hand, Armstead has one thing going for him, which is that Doug Marrone has really relied heavily on one back during his time in Jacksonville. Sure, you can argue that he did so because the team invested so heavily in that one back, spending a first-round pick on Fournette which basically trapped them into having to give him the ball so much, but still -- this team has relied pretty heavily on one guy.
That's the good news with coaching. The bad: the addition of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator complicates things. He has a good relationship with Chris Thompson, for instance, and in his time as an NFL head coach and offensive coordinator, a Gruden running back has never finished as a top 10 player at the position in fantasy, and only three seasons produced a top-20 finish. There are some conflicting coaching things going on here.
Ultimately, Armstead has the upside to be a low-end RB2 based on his expected role, but it's safer to say he's a low-end RB3 for fantasy draft purposes. Lots of risk here. Solid upside. His underrated value as a receiver will come in handy if Thompson misses time, but he probably won't get a ton of chances in the receiving game if Thompson is healthy, and a poor game script could really hurt Armstead's value.
The PPR Guy: Chris Thompson
Chris Thompson was already expected to see lots of time on passing downs, and after the move to get rid of Fournette, he is...still expected to see lots of time on passing downs.
I don't actually think Thompson's fantasy outlook is super impacted by this move when it comes to his upside, because I was already expecting a healthy Thompson to take most of Fournette's 2019 targets, and I don't think the Jaguars are going to be putting Thompson on the field much on rushing downs. Maybe he gets more carries than before and maybe he gets a few more targets, but I thought he was a playable flex option in full PPR before and I think he's a playable flex option in full PPR now.
But while the upside is about the same, I do think this eliminates a lot of the non-injury downside that came along with Chris Thompson. Let's not forget that Leonard Fournette had 100 targets last year. Some of those were going to Thompson, but having Fournette available on some passing downs was a distinct possibility.
Ryquell Armstead is probably a better receiver than Fournette, but I'm predicting that the coaching staff uses Thompson on passing downs more than they would have with Fournette around.
There's also the game script factor. Look at this Jaguars team. How often will they be playing from behind in the second half? A lot, right? That helps Thompson, who'll be on the field a lot in the second half, when his receiving ability will come in handy.
The "Hmm, Maybe Worth a Flier In Deep Leagues" Back: Devine Ozigbo
Here's where things get more speculative.
Ozigbo's going to be the third back here if nothing changes. The second-year back barely played last year, having nine carries for 27 yards and three catches for 23 yards. All of that happened in Week 17.
Like Armstead, playing behind Leonard Fournette meant we never got to see Ozigbo get the playing time he needed to actually show anything to the Jags and the rest of the NFL. But word out of training camp is that he's been impressive, and he did have a solid preseason last year with the Saints.
Ozigbo had a strong finish to his college career, rushing for seven yards per carry as a senior at Nebraska. He has some good quickness and can be a capable receiving option if needed, though he's going to have to find a way to work his way up the depth chart.
But hey, injuries or ineffectiveness with Armstead and Thompson could mean a boost to Ozigbo's stock at some point. He's an interesting stash in deep leagues, though right now fantasy managers might be better served by putting him on their watchlist and not their roster.
They Could Still Sign Someone, Right?
Sure, but who? Devonta Freeman is an option, but the Jaguars are in a rebuild, so why spend money on a veteran running back?
I think the better option if they look outside of this team is to see who gets cut over the next week or so. If a young back that they like more than Ozigbo comes onto the market, for instance, they might jump on him. Think undrafted free agents or recently-released draft picks that didn't make the cut elsewhere.
Right now, though, I wouldn't be too worried about a new face entering and changing things up. Treat Armstead as the starter, Thompson as the PPR guy, and Ozigbo as the long shot, deep league guy. Don't overthink this and convince yourself Devonta Freeman is about to be their starter. Maybe that happens, but it's not worth worrying about at this point.
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