RADIO
Eli Grabanski analyzes offensive play-calling tendencies of AFC East coaches and breaks down the fantasy football impact for running backs in 2020.
In the next installment of this series, we will look at the AFC East. Catch up on the rest so far by reading about the NFC East, NFC West, NFC North, and NFC South.
This division is interesting as three of the head coaches in it come from defensive-minded backgrounds: Sean McDermott, Bill Belichick, and Brian Flores. This means that these teams put a lot of faith in their offensive coordinators to get the offense running: Brian Daboll for Buffalo, Josh McDaniels for New England, and Chan Gailey for Miami.
The odd duck in the division is the New York Jets, who have head coach Adam Gase as their primary playcaller. While Gase is the primary playcaller in New York, we will also take a look at offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and his impact on running backs just in case he ends up receiving playcalling duties this year. Without further ado, let's dive in!
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Buffalo Bills
Primary Playcaller: Brian Daboll
Brian Daboll has been an offensive coordinator for a few years. He might best be known for his offensive coordinator role on the 2017 Alabama Crimson Tide championship team that made the decision to start Tua Tagovailoa over starter Jalen Hurts in the second half of the championship game. In the last two seasons, he's had the opportunity to try and turnaround the Bills offense as their offensive playcaller. In this time, one of the most interesting aspects of Daboll's tenure has been the team's use of the run game. In particular, let's take a look at how Daboll has used his running backs on the ground in Buffalo and compare it to how he has historically used his running backs in the NFL.
Daboll has utilized his running backs less in his time with the Bills than he did in his prior four years in the NFL, giving his running backs only 21.44 carries per game the last two seasons after giving his running backs 25.03 carries per game his previous four years as an offensive coordinator. In addition, Daboll has yet to give a running back over 50% of the running back room carries in Buffalo, so it will be interesting to see if that continues for a third year.
Besides the run game, it's important to look at how Brian Daboll uses his backs in the passing game.
Brian Daboll has been below-average in providing opportunities for his running backs in the passing game, never topping 100 targets in a single season. This is very concerning for his running backs' fantasy outlook in PPR formats especially.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Neutral for RB1 in the ground game, Slightly positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game, Negative in the passing game - On the ground, Daboll uses his RB1 slightly less (but not enough to conclude he's below average) than the average coach, giving his lead back 13.46 carries per game. Overall, Daboll gives his other running backs an above-average amount of carries at 10.38 carries per game. This bodes well for Zack Moss's fantasy relevance. Finally, Daboll is one of the worst coaches in the NFL at providing his running backs opportunities in the passing game.
New England Patriots
Primary Playcaller: Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels has been the Patriots' offensive coordinator for most of his career, with a couple of seasons spending time in Denver and St. Louis mixed in. He's been regarded as one of the better offensive minds in the league, but he will be put to the test this season with Tom Brady no longer on the team. Could it lead to more of a run-heavy approach? It's possible. Let's take a look at how many opportunities Josh McDaniels has provided to his running backs in the past.
On the ground, Josh McDaniels has given his running back room a ton of opportunity, with his RB units averaging 24.54 carries per game, which is slightly above the average of 22.46 carries per game. But, like fantasy players have been saying for years, you never know who McDaniels (and the Patriots) is going to feature on the ground in any given week, and the data supports this. On the ground, McDaniels' lead backs have only averaged 12.99 carries per game, which is lower than the league average of 13.91.
In the passing game, McDaniels is above average, with his running backs averaging 7.1 targets per game. This usage has been especially intriguing in recent years, with his running back room seeing at least 100 targets every season since 2013 and peaking last year. James White should be a solid investment in PPR formats based on this information.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game, slightly positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game, positive in the passing game - Josh McDaniels' offenses have run the ball a lot in the past, but the problem is that he runs more of a committee approach, making his lead back generally a little underwhelming for fantasy purposes. In the passing game, Josh McDaniels is above average at utilizing his running backs and has provided a ton of opportunities there since 2013.
Miami Dolphins
Primary Playcaller: Chan Gailey
After the Dolphins fired offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea, they opted to bring in Gailey, who hasn't coached since 2016. Gailey is a great offensive mind who has been around the game so long that he coached at a time where targets were not tracked. One of the things that should make fantasy players most excited is Chan Gailey's use of running backs. So, let's take a look at how Gailey uses his backs in the run game.
These numbers should make fantasy players very excited. Gailey is one of the best in the business at getting work for his running backs on the ground, as they are averaging 24.57 carries per game over 14 seasons. In addition, he's proven to be reliable in utilizing his lead back on the ground, with his RB1 receiving at least 54% of the season's carries and averaging 16.98 carries per game every year he's been in the league. Gailey's use of the ground game is a very positive sign for Jordan Howard and Matt Breida's managers.
While Chan Gailey has been a coach in the NFL since 1989, the NFL did not track targets in his first two years as an offensive coordinator. So, we can only look at his coaching stats over the last 12 years. Looking at that data as a whole, Gailey's use of running backs in the passing game is disappointing, with them only receiving 5.53 targets per game. But, it gets more interesting if we look at the data before 2010 and after 2010. In the eight seasons he was an offensive coordinator or head coach between the years 1996-2010, Gailey's offense never saw his running backs get 100+ targets. But, in his last four years as an offensive coordinator, his running back room has seen at least 108 targets. Normally, we'd classify Gailey as a negative asset in the passing game, but based on this recent trend, it makes more sense to classify Gailey as a neutral asset for his running backs in the passing game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Positive in the ground game, neutral in the passing game - In the ground game, Gailey is one of the best in the business at providing opportunities for his running backs. In the passing game, the raw numbers suggest that Gailey is below-average at providing opportunities for his running backs. But, in his four most recent years as a coach, he's actually been pretty good at providing opportunities for his backs. For now, we'll consider him a net neutral for his running backs in the passing game.
New York Jets
Primary Playcaller: Adam Gase
Adam Gase has been coasting on his reputation of being Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator in Denver, managing to turn it into two head coaching gigs. He's also well-known for his frustrating use of running backs in fantasy football, but is there any truth to those concerns? Let's take a look first at his use of running backs on the ground over his career and then look at his use of running backs through the air.
It's easy to see why Gase's utilization of running backs on the ground is so frustrating. While his running back room receives more carries (23.11 carries per game) than the average one (22.46 carries), he also gives his RB1 fewer carries (12.83 carries) than the average one (13.91 carries). In addition, this isn't just one outlier year bringing his averages down, as his lead back has only received more than 58% of the running back carries twice in his seven years as a playcaller.
In the passing game, you look at Adam Gase's numbers and think his name should be 'Average Gase' (is that a stretch?). His running back room averages 6.41 targets per game, which is right around the league average of 6.55 targets per game. In addition, he's been very consistent year to year with his running back room targets, ranging anywhere from 88 to 116. So, we can reasonably predict that Gase will once again target his running backs around 100 times during the 2020 season.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game, slightly positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game, neutral in the passing game - Adam Gase gives his running back room slightly more carries than your average playcaller, but tends to spread it out among multiple backs. This has led to his RB1 underperforming on the ground. Through the air, Adam Gase is painfully average at getting his running backs opportunities regardless of who he has in the backfield.
Secondary Playcaller: Dowell Loggains
Dowell Loggains has been an offensive coordinator for a few teams now. This includes the Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets, but he has been unable to stick with any team in the role for more than two years. While he's not the primary playcaller in New York, it is important to consider what kinds of suggestions he may make to Adam Gase about the usage of the Jets' running backs.
In the ground, Loggains is the opposite of Adam Gase in how he likes to use his running backs, giving slightly fewer carries (22.23 carries per game) than the average coach (22.46 carries per game), but opting to use a bell-cow approach on the ground. So, if you roster Le'Veon Bell, you're hoping that Loggains has a little more input on the offense this year.
In the passing game, Loggains is similar to Adam Gase in that he's largely average. His running back room averages 6.19 targets per game, which is slightly below the league average of 6.55 targets per game.
Playcaller Net Impact on RB: Slightly positive for RB1, negative for RB2 & RB3, neutral in pass game - In the ground game, Loggains prefers a bell-cow approach at running back, so Le'Veon Bell owners should be hoping Loggains has more input this year. In the passing game, Loggains is around the league average among playcallers/offensive coordinators and won't sway your opinion one way or the other.
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