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The MLB season continues to move forward and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, August 27th presents a slate of 15 games thanks in large part to the PPD of several games last, night resulting in doubleheaders today. A couple of the games we can look to take advantage of include the A's at Rangers and Phillies at Nationals.
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Athletics @ Rangers: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Jordan Lyles less than 4.5 strikeouts and Chris Bassitt more than 4.5 strikeouts
Jordan Lyles has been awful to start the 2020 campaign as noted by his 9.25 ERA across his first 25 IP. He will be facing an Oakland team that has posted a wRC+ of 111 vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks 13th in the league over that span. They have also posted an 11% BB rate vs. righties, which has them ranked fourth in the league over that span. This could prove to be an issue for Lyles as he has walked 13 hitters already to begin the season. He also has only managed to eclipse this K total in just one of his first six starts, and even then, he only reached five strikeouts.
Chris Bassitt is in a solid spot heading into tonight's game. The Rangers are posting a K rate of 26.4% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks them fifth-worst in the league over that span. They are also only posting a wRC+ of 60, which has them ranked third-worst over that same span. This tells me Bassitt is unlikely to get into trouble often and should be able to go over the total. He has also eclipsed this total in three of his six starts.
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More or Less Contest - Marcus Semien more than 1.5 hits/walks
Marcus Semien more than 1.5 hits/walks - Semien has been hitting pretty well over the previous week as he has posted a .279 AVG and has paired that with four BB and only four K across 28 AB. Not only does he get to face Jordan Lyles in this game, but he will also face a Ranger pen that has posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP thus far in 2020. They are also tied for fourth in the league in BB with 67 across 112.2 IP. Semien has also reached this total in each of his previous three games.
Phillies @ Nationals: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Max Scherzer more than 7.5 strikeouts and Spencer Howard less than 4.5 strikeouts
Max has been a bit up and down to begin the season, but he has had some monster performances and reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his first six starts. While the Phillies are posting a modest 21.3% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, they have not faired well on the whole against Max. The current Phillies that have faced Scherzer combine for a 38.2% K rate, which certainly lends to the over here. As aforementioned, Max has three games of double-digit strikeouts and this could be another one. I would expect this total to jump to 8.5 before the first pitch.
Spencer Howard has struggled early this season as he has posted an ERA over six and a WHIP over two thus far. He gets a tough matchup against the Nationals tonight and is likely to go under the total. The Nationals are not striking out as evidenced by their 18.6% K rate vs. right-handers across the previous two weeks. This mark ranks fourth-best in baseball and is a big reason I like the under here. Howard has also failed to reach this total in two of his first three starts, which came against teams that K at a much higher rate than the Nationals (with exception to the Mets).
More or Less Contest - Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks
Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks - Juan Soto should not have an issue getting over this total vs. Spencer Howard and the Phillies' pen. Howard has been especially bad vs. left-handed hitters as he has allowed a .423 BAA as well as a 9.00 ERA and four BB across facing just 30 batters. Soto is also destroying right-handed pitching as he has posted a 1.318 OPS across his first 45 AB. He has also eclipsed this total in seven of his previous 10 contests. The Phillies pen is also one of the worst in the league as they currently hold a 7.52 ERA and 1.92 WHIP across their first 81.1 IP.
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